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12-26-2014, 11:24 AM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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2015 Prediction on the 10-year T-bond????
Surprising most market prognosticators, the 10-yr treasury yield declined further this year and currently stands at 2.26%.
Where will the 10-yr yield stand on 12/13/15 and why?
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12-26-2014, 11:46 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,752
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i say 1.14 % because the US 10 year is higher than other western countries. Germany is .80% right now.
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12-26-2014, 11:55 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
i say 1.14 % because the US 10 year is higher than other western countries. Germany is .80% right now.
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I lean toward this way of thinking also (Germany is down to 0.60%). We're both making an implicit assumption that German/other European/Japanese yields aren't going up. Focusing on Germany, why won't German yields back up in 2015?
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12-26-2014, 12:02 PM
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#4
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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If there are no surprises, 3.00%. If, as I suspect, the oil industry drags down more than a few banks, then it stays about the same at 2.25%.
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12-26-2014, 12:09 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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3.05%. Europe and oil stabilize. ECB QE eases deflation fears. U.S. economic data continues strong to the end of the year.
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12-26-2014, 12:18 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by _______
3.05%. Europe and oil stabilize. ECB QE eases deflation fears. U.S. economic data continues strong to the end of the year.
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You're implying that EU QE will push European long rates up, correct?
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12-26-2014, 02:49 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 3,826
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2%
Something unforeseen happens which delays Yellen from raising rates.
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― Thomas Sowell
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12-26-2014, 07:23 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
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I see the T-bill at the bottom a tick or two under 1.0%. The top in 2015 will be below the current rate so lets say the top at 2.0%
The 6-7-8 years of falling USA and world-wide interest rates .... the precipitous drop in the price of oil .... failed stimulus policies in the USA, Europe and now, Japan, proves just one thing -- we're in a world-wide deflationary environment!
In 2015, deflationary pressures thanks to technology, oil dropping again on world markets, and add an across-the-board pier six brawl type price wars affecting numerous industrys, and the economy here will hit record (low) levels, with the obligatory low rates.
I repeat, a T-bill rate no higher than 2.0% with most of 2015 heading to and hovering around +/- 1.0%
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