Gulfstream morning line

[Valuist]

With talk of the lack of accuracy of the GP teletimer, I have found something at Gulfstream that is even less accurate.

Morning lines at the Hallandale track this meet have been way off. Its not that we use the morning lines to make our own wagers, but as a gauge of how others view a race. And in playing multiexotics where the odds of future races are unknown, we like to have some realistic idea of how others perceive the race.

Last week, Liams Map was priced at 7-2. Anyone with a scant knowledge of line making knew the horse wouldn't be over even money, and probably below that. How big is the difference between pricing a horse at 7-2 and 1-1? One is worth 50 points and the other 22. That's an incredible disparity. I can understand that if it was a first time starter but not a Pletcher monster.

Lets look at today. Race 5, number 2 Dr. No. Basically a NW1X for two year olds. What price is realistic for a Graham Motion trained, Joel Rosario ridden British import dropping from a Grade 3 and going on Lasix? 5-2? That could even be optimistic. What was he priced at? 10-1

Move ahead to race 7. If you like the Shug trained, Rosario ridden Ironicus, do you really believe you get anything close to 10-1? Of course not, because its a ridiculous line.

The linemaker tends to overcompensate for the top riders, so apparantly the GP line maker doesn't think much of Rosario. Race 9, Belisaruis, the Mott/Rosario runner beaten a half length at 3.70-1 last out in New York is listed at 10-1. Street Game, in great form off an easy win at Belmont for the 26% on the year Michelle Nevin, is listed at 10-1. And Jonrah, the Chad Brown trained, Johnny V ridden coming off a win w/a Beyer of 89 is listed at an insane 30-1. Has Chad Brown ever been 30-1 coming off a win and entered in an allowance race? So who does the linemaker expect to take money? Cairo County, a FL invader who has never run a Beyer higher than 58, is listed at 6-1. Realistically, 60-1 is much more accurate. Ocean Seven, 5th vs similar at GPW at odds of 31-1, is priced at 9-2.

I guess the linemaker figures GPW form is superior to Belmont and Aqueduct form.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Valuist

With talk of the lack of accuracy of the GP teletimer, I have found something at Gulfstream that is even less accurate.

Morning lines at the Hallandale track this meet have been way off. Its not that we use the morning lines to make our own wagers, but as a gauge of how others view a race. And in playing multiexotics where the odds of future races are unknown, we like to have some realistic idea of how others perceive the race.

Last week, Liams Map was priced at 7-2. Anyone with a scant knowledge of line making knew the horse wouldn't be over even money, and probably below that. How big is the difference between pricing a horse at 7-2 and 1-1? One is worth 50 points and the other 22. That's an incredible disparity. I can understand that if it was a first time starter but not a Pletcher monster.

Lets look at today. Race 5, number 2 Dr. No. Basically a NW1X for two year olds. What price is realistic for a Graham Motion trained, Joel Rosario ridden British import dropping from a Grade 3 and going on Lasix? 5-2? That could even be optimistic. What was he priced at? 10-1

Move ahead to race 7. If you like the Shug trained, Rosario ridden Ironicus, do you really believe you get anything close to 10-1? Of course not, because its a ridiculous line.

The linemaker tends to overcompensate for the top riders, so apparantly the GP line maker doesn't think much of Rosario. Race 9, Belisaruis, the Mott/Rosario runner beaten a half length at 3.70-1 last out in New York is listed at 10-1. Street Game, in great form off an easy win at Belmont for the 26% on the year Michelle Nevin, is listed at 10-1. And Jonrah, the Chad Brown trained, Johnny V ridden coming off a win w/a Beyer of 89 is listed at an insane 30-1. Has Chad Brown ever been 30-1 coming off a win and entered in an allowance race? So who does the linemaker expect to take money? Cairo County, a FL invader who has never run a Beyer higher than 58, is listed at 6-1. Realistically, 60-1 is much more accurate. Ocean Seven, 5th vs similar at GPW at odds of 31-1, is priced at 9-2.

I guess the linemaker figures GPW form is superior to Belmont and Aqueduct form.

Funny I have no problem with the line-maker at GP.
BTW in R#5 Dr.No opened at 2/1 and was off at 8/5, but ran like the M/L
Ironicus was listed in race 8 and scratched!

In the 8th I like the 1-9 w/12-2-13

GL

[Spiderman]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Funny I have no problem with the line-maker at GP.
BTW in R#5 Dr.No opened at 2/1 and was off at 8/5, but ran like the M/L
Ironicus was listed in race 8 and scratched!
GL

Street game is listed at 3-1 ml. Funny Ironicus was mentioned. The 10-1 ml and fast-closing form had my attention. Its now a tough field and I will pass.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

In the 8th I like the 1-9 w/12-2-13

GL

Results Race #8 - 1-7-9-12 - Win

$2.00 WIN 1 - $11.40

[Spiderman]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Results Race #8 - 1-7-9-12 - Win

$2.00 WIN 1 - $11.40

Good call. The #1 had hidden talent that only a few knew.

[Spiderman]

Race 9, Valuist nailed the Belarius 10-1 ml fiasco. He is 8-5 with 4 mtp. Who makes the line at GP? Is it Ron "Mr Chalk"Nicoletti?

I'll play Street Game at 4-1

[Robert Fischer]

If the public were going to (look at the bad morning line, and incorrectly thinking the betting would be more even) use 2 or 3 horse's in the Liams Map leg of the pick-3, then I would gladly take a sub-par morning-line, and reap the benefits.

They aren't. The public singled Liams Map too.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Funny I have no problem with the line-maker at GP.
BTW in R#5 Dr.No opened at 2/1 and was off at 8/5, but ran like the M/L
Ironicus was listed in race 8 and scratched!

In the 8th I like the 1-9 w/12-2-13

GL

Dr. No was 10-1 in the m/l and went off at 8-5. BTW, he actually ran pretty good but ran into severe trouble on the turn.

Belisarius was 8-1 in the m/l and went off at 8-5. There apparently was an error at the DRF as their hard copies had Jonrah at an insane 30-1 and Street Game at 10-1 and Cairo County 6-1 (he scratched) and Ocean Seven at 9-2 but other than Belisarius, Equibase had more realistic numbers.

But I think the point was proven. Some head scratchers there.

[P Matties Jr]

Chuck Streva who did the morning line at Gulfstream for more than 25 years passed away this summer. He was one of the best around. Whoever has replaced him obviously hasn't gotten the hang of it, yet.

[cj]

Serious question, why do people give a crap about morning lines? I never pay any attention to them. If you know a bad morning line when you see it, you don't need a morning line anyway.

[joeslovo]

Agree wholeheartedly.Make your own morning line if someone else's assessment upsets you.You are better off looking at how markets are formed at your favorite tracks;and what trainers and stables are helping form those markets.Some tracks;the market isn't even formed until inside the last minute before the off.

[Bennie]

CJ - I used to print your pace figures before the post positions were listed and before the odds were listed. I would then go back and hand write the post positions after they were official. I was never influenced by the ML. If I liked a horse, I bet it.

[nijinski]

Franklinpark was 30-1 r9, GP , after a last place finish last out at 136-1 .
Good thing he was scratched . 0 for 25 this year .
That's more troubling than the ML .

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Nitro

BTW in R#5 Dr.No opened at 2/1 and was off at 8/5, but ran like the M/L

Actually, he opened at 3/5, and ran well enough to win had he not been forced to steady twice after running into two roadblocks. I concur with Valuist totally; the M/L maker at GP is no bueno right now.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by cj

Serious question, why do people give a crap about morning lines? I never pay any attention to them. If you know a bad morning line when you see it, you don't need a morning line anyway.

I never look at the morning line,when I am handicapping. I may look at it when I write down the opening odds on my scratch sheet. Many times,I have thrown out the ML favorite.I will give a look to a 2-1 ML,I have thrown out to see if I missed something,but more often than not I'll leave that horse out of my bets.