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12-19-2014, 12:36 AM
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#1
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Optimist
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Delaware
Posts: 666
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Quirin on weight.
If memory serves, he says the higher wts beat the lower back then. If I remembered right, is that still true or not?
Thanks
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12-19-2014, 01:02 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 56
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I think it is, as a general rule. I don't have a database to crunch the numbers but I did listen to Derek Simon's TwinSpires horse racing podcast from 11 Dec 2014 and he discussed weight as a factor.
As I recall, he tested his db of recent race results and found that horses carrying more weight won more than their fair share. He postulated that it related to these horses fitting the race conditions more closely.
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12-19-2014, 03:10 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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WHEN THE TRACK SECRETARY SETS THE WEIGHT CARRIED THE TOP WEIGHTED HORSE IS THE ONE TO BEAT. you could email dave and ask him.
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Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
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Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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12-19-2014, 05:09 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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For American racing - Higher weights win more, lower weights pay more, no statistical difference in ROI for weights.
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12-19-2014, 07:00 AM
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#5
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Generally speaking, putting on weight with higher odds horse with a string of bad races could signal an improved performance, but whether you want to bet on it is an another question. Taking off weight when the horse did not win last out is a very bad sign assume it is not jockey related. But if you are down to using weight as the determining factor to pick the winner, you are probably better off skipping the race.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-19-2014, 11:55 AM
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#6
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gillenr
If memory serves, he says the higher wts beat the lower back then. If I remembered right, is that still true or not?
Thanks
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Sure. It has more to do with the way conditions are written than the weight itself.
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12-19-2014, 12:09 PM
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#7
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Whether top weights are winning more (or less) is irrelevant for betting purposes; what really matters is how good or bad the weight differences are projected on the betting pools and how well the crowd adjusts its opinion based on them
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whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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12-19-2014, 03:54 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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There is old stat that the highweight wins 50% of handicap races.Not sure if that is still true
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12-19-2014, 05:06 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Secondbest
There is old stat that the highweight wins 50% of handicap races.Not sure if that is still true
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That was never true.
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12-19-2014, 05:39 PM
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#10
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Whether top weights are winning more (or less) is irrelevant for betting purposes; what really matters is how good or bad the weight differences are projected on the betting pools and how well the crowd adjusts its opinion based on them
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Weight has zero effect on the outcome of a race. The public has accept that fact about 30 years ago, so it has zero effect on the pools. A novice $2 bettor might take in to consideration, but nobody else does.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-19-2014, 05:41 PM
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#11
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Secondbest
There is old stat that the highweight wins 50% of handicap races.Not sure if that is still true
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Only in races that Kelso and Native Diver ran in.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-19-2014, 06:26 PM
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#12
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Only in races that Kelso and Native Diver ran in.
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What about Forego? 
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12-19-2014, 07:30 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 918
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Weight has zero effect on the outcome of a race. The public has accept that fact about 30 years ago, so it has zero effect on the pools. A novice $2 bettor might take in to consideration, but nobody else does.
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and so might the biggest gamblers on the planet.
well, i think we had better change 'might' for ' will'
i learned a long time ago that weight matters more on dirt than it does on turf, and it is a big a factor on turf, so it follows that it is an even bigger factor on dirt.
i am sure that certain people are happy that most others appear to share your belief.
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12-19-2014, 09:49 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Weight has zero effect on the outcome of a race. The public has accept that fact about 30 years ago, so it has zero effect on the pools. A novice $2 bettor might take in to consideration, but nobody else does.
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That is also not true, in American racing, it doesn't really come into play as the spread, even in handicaps, is maybe 5-6 lbs? Take extreme examples like the Melbourne Cup or The Grand National and you get data which suggests the low weights make a difference over the extended differences. Also in HK where you can have a 20 lbs spread in weights in a race.
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12-19-2014, 09:53 PM
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#15
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,860
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Weight has zero effect on the outcome of a race. The public has accept that fact about 30 years ago, so it has zero effect on the pools. A novice $2 bettor might take in to consideration, but nobody else does.
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Some trainers do, and so it does affect the outcomes of races.
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