Impossible task: Overcoming Penn Nat tri takeout

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I remember that Drexelgate thing during the Pick 6 scandal over 10 years ago. Do you have a link to an article from anyone in the last decade that talked, in detail, how much money the racing industry spent upgrading tote systems and what they've done to make their betting system "unhackable". Now remember, this is 2015 and some of these hackas are very VERY good.....are they not good enough to sneak into the racing industry and siphon a few bucks here and there? Is the racing industry's tote system "fort knox" when it comes to hackers?

In otherwords, is it "unhackable"?

Do you think hackers are going to waste their time going after pari mutuels with $30k pools or massive retailer data bases with millions of credit card numbers in them just waiting to be picked off?
This is not to say it is not possible that some people, or individuals have breached race track computer systems. Is it probable? Not from where I'm sitting. It would just take too long to pile up a significant amount of money.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

You know what would be awesome? If there were 2 pools.....one pool locked at 0 mtp and the other pool locked at off time.....I think it would be pretty obvious that the pool that locked 0 mtp would provide much higher win prices in the long run, there would be none of this stuff where horses go to 8-5 at the top of the lane.

I agree....Many of the pro's are betting the bell. I am convinced of it. Also, there are the pool manipulators that cancel bets just before the bell hoping to catch by surprise unsuspecting bettors who followed the money on the tote board and on the probables.
These are my opinions as I have no proof this is actually being done.
But, I have no reason to believe my opinion is that far off from being accurate

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Do you think hackers are going to waste their time going after pari mutuels with $30k pools or massive retailer data bases with millions of credit card numbers in them just waiting to be picked off?
This is not to say it is not possible that some people, or individuals have breached race track computer systems. Is it probable? Not from where I'm sitting. It would just take too long to pile up a significant amount of money.

Well, you mean it is probable but you don't see it happening is what you're trying to say?

Also, if you just stick 1 dollar on a wining tri combo, you can collect 100s or more per transaction...that adds up, they can make thousands a week skimming the pools just enough so nobody would notice. Nobody is going to suggest that a person who hits a tri for 1 dollar is cheating, so they could skim more money than you think and still stay under the radar.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Well, you mean it is probable but you don't see it happening is what you're trying to say?

Also, if you just stick 1 dollar on a wining tri combo, you can collect 100s or more per transaction...that adds up, they can make thousands a week skimming the pools just enough so nobody would notice. Nobody is going to suggest that a person who hits a tri for 1 dollar is cheating, so they could skim more money than you think and still stay under the radar.

If a hacker was smart, he'd be picking off those little decimals. The pennies that tracks skim from the bettors when they figure the breakage..
Skimming the skim....Which in turn leaves them not even paying attention to the mutuel pools.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

If a hacker was smart, he'd be picking off those little decimals. The pennies that tracks skim from the bettors when they figure the breakage..
Skimming the skim....Which in turn leaves them not even paying attention to the mutuel pools.

I agree with that.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Well, you mean it is probable but you don't see it happening is what you're trying to say?

Also, if you just stick 1 dollar on a wining tri combo, you can collect 100s or more per transaction...that adds up, they can make thousands a week skimming the pools just enough so nobody would notice. Nobody is going to suggest that a person who hits a tri for 1 dollar is cheating, so they could skim more money than you think and still stay under the radar.

The point was that you can skim .0001 percent of $10000 or you can skim .0001 percent of $1,000,000,000...which would you risk a prison sentence over?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Come on......That again?...Look, if you can show credible evidence of past posting, I'd be on board with you.
But, really...Haven't we been around this mulberry bush one too many times?

You got me all wrong; I don't want ANYBODY "on board" with me. I am not running a crusade here. I say what I think...and I couldn't care less if anybody believes me, or not. Whatever "evidence" I have is mine alone...and others are always free to make up their OWN minds.

It doesn't bother me at all to have others doubt what I say.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You got me all wrong; I don't want ANYBODY "on board" with me. I am not running a crusade here. I say what I think...and I couldn't care less if anybody believes me, or not. Whatever "evidence" I have is mine alone...and others are always free to make up their OWN minds.

It doesn't bother me at all to have others doubt what I say.

Exactly. People believe what they want to believe, feels good to not have our heads in the sand though.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I don't even have to 'correct' your complaints if you catch it.

I agree with your point and I would phrase it that the FAVORITE PATRIOT failed to dominate the show pool.

I have no idea about the board when approaching the gate, but he finished with just 20% of the place and show pool in spite of his even-money win odds. So for anyone planning on ditching the favorite and then boxing a bunch of others in trifecta - that should raise <red flags>.

So in general, it's not safe to simply toss a favorite and play 'blindfolded butcher' by spreading/boxing a slew of others IF said favorite is not giving off indicators that he will be KEYED heavily in those trifectas.

MR 20%er FAVORITE PATRIOT probably was not heavily keyed in those trifectas, and his show and plc probably could have been used as indicators.

Now looking away from generalities and at the race itself...

The race ultimately turned into a pace meltdown.

BLUES ALLEY is quite interesting. Fundamentally sound. Ridden properly can sit near a pace. Bred in Pa. Worth a look as both a claim (could be available for 6250 next out) and a wager(he actually does belong @ 6250, and should win barring a strong-for-class rival and/or a poor ride).

In hindsight this race races a question about running styles.

If hypothetically we felt that FAMOUS PATRIOT were a pass, it invites the question about grouping and or alternating the running styles.
(In this case the pre-race running styles were clearly defined and due to the collapse finished in like-clusters.)

Good call on BA, hope you cashed!

[Stillriledup]

28 dollar tri in the 5th at Penn National (feb 13th)?

[Stillriledup]

Ok, so Race 5 tonight at Penn National had a 6 horse field. In a 6 horse field, there are 120 possible trifecta combinations that can win. The pool was 21,340 and after takeout, there was 14,724 to give back.

Here were the final odds of the horses.
2-1, 2.4-1, 3-1, 4-1, 8-1 and 12-1

The winner was the second choice paying 6.80. The runner up was the 8-1 shot and the 3rd horse was the 12-1 shot.

If every combination was bet equally, there would have been 177 dollars on each combination.....177 x 120 = 21, 240.

The winning combination, with the 2 longest shots in the race running 2nd and 3rd had 257 on the winning combo, which is much higher than the "median" amount of 177, its 80 dollars more than what would be expected on the combo if every one of the 120 combinations were bet as if all 120 possible tri combos had the exact same shot.

[Stillriledup]

How come whenever i see a jockey with a generic name that hasn't ridden a race in a long time, they win by 100 lengths w/massive form reversal.

Funny how that works.

[Stillriledup]

How come the 2 got loose in the 5th race? Nobody was near him, looked like a lot of pace on paper, and yet, every jock except the 2 grabbed, this looked like a marathon race down the backstretch.

Not a good outcome for those who bet the 7 as the lone closer and were expecting the 2 to get pressed.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

How come the 2 got loose in the 5th race? Nobody was near him, looked like a lot of pace on paper, and yet, every jock except the 2 grabbed, this looked like a marathon race down the backstretch.

Not a good outcome for those who bet the 7 as the lone closer and were expecting the 2 to get pressed.

This a general inquiry..
Why is it that you consistently accuse riders of "grabbing, choking down, strangling or otherwise holding horses back?...
To be frank I have watched, in person, or on TV more horse racing than a lot of people. And I am just not seeing the things you say happen in this manner with the frequency and/or severity, in which you describe.
This one really gets me....."every jock but the 2 grabbed"....Come on now. So you're claiming that in a field of 7 or 8 entrants, 6 or 7 of them essentially held back their mounts?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

This a general inquiry..
Why is it that you consistently accuse riders of "grabbing, choking down, strangling or otherwise holding horses back?...
To be frank I have watched, in person, or on TV more horse racing than a lot of people. And I am just not seeing the things you say happen in this manner with the frequency and/or severity, in which you describe.
This one really gets me....."every jock but the 2 grabbed"....Come on now. So you're claiming that in a field of 7 or 8 entrants, 6 or 7 of them essentially held back their mounts?

Im not "claiming" anything, its there on video. Go watch it again. The two walks to the top and all the other jocks are just sitting there under holds. On paper this figured to be a hotly contested pace and the jocks were riding like they were all on closers.