Impossible task: Overcoming Penn Nat tri takeout

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Tall One

Anybody remember when they cut off wagering when the MTP hit zero, early 2000s I want to say? Or, at least TVG quit accepting bets at the zero.

NYRA used to close the pools when the "mins to post" went to zero.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I need some help with the math part of this, something happened today at another track, similar situation.

Want to bring your attention to the 5th today at Laurel.

You had a 9 horse field. There were two bombs, the 4 and the 7. The 7 was more safely tossed than the 4 as it did look like the 4 had some shot to be at least 3rd. The remaining 7 horses were very wide open. You had 6 of the 7 horses between 6-1 and 8-1 and you had a 6-5 favorite.

Now, if you box the tri for 50 cents and you toss the 2 bombs completely, the bet costs 105 for 50 cents.

Now, you get the 6-5 entirely off the board, the SIXTH choice wins the race, and you get a 6-1 and a 7-1 underneath and the tri pays 66 for 50 cents, which means your 7 horse box (throwing out 2 horses mind you) is "successful" as you did what you needed to do, you got the 6-5 shot off the board and you got the 6th choice to win and you only recouped 60% of your money. Now, if the takeout is 25%, you weren't even able to get the takeout back, in a 9 horse field that seemed wide open.

Help me out with the math here....i'm just not following how these tris are not even coming close to break even.

Boxing entire fields is indeed a risky bet.
And this bet is not a good investment in that the player is "flying blind"...
I explained earlier that unlike doubles and exactas, trifecta players are not afforded the ability to see over the course of the betting period which betting interests are getting the most play.
if one could see these numbers, they could figure out whether or not the wager is a good value play.
All we have are the win odds, which in the examples provided by you obviously did not reflect the trifecta payoff

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Boxing entire fields is indeed a risky bet.
And this bet is not a good investment in that the player is "flying blind"...
I explained earlier that unlike doubles and exactas, trifecta players are not afforded the ability to see over the course of the betting period which betting interests are getting the most play.
if one could see these numbers, they could figure out whether or not the wager is a good value play.
All we have are the win odds, which in the examples provided by you obviously did not reflect the trifecta payoff

I agree, a field box is risky, but sometimes, shouldn't you box the field and get rewarded? I'm seeing bevvy's of 7-1 shots running 1-2-3 and only getting back 1/3rd of the entire investment seems odd to me. Seems way short.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

See now, this is interesting to me. Could you tell me more about this, because i've just recently been noticing place and show pools and it does seem that the live-r horses are the ones with more PS money, its almost as if the place and show "idiots" know what they're doing. You wouldn't think they know anything, but that money seems to be smarter than meets the eye.

Why do you say that place and show bettors actually know anything at all? (i agree with you that the place and show pools actually can tip off live vs dead situations, how that happens i have no idea)

--'live' a relative thing--
With determining how 'live' a horse is(in any of the different pools), you have to have a good guess about how the public "should" behave.

For example, if California Chrome ran in an optional claiming race today, you'd expect the public to bet him extremely heavily. He's a popular fan favorite, and he's flat-out better than the field.
So California Chrome could be 8/5 on the board, and still be 'cold' on the board or 'dead' on the board (because you would expect 3/5 or whatever).

So 'liveness' is a relative thing, and you need to have an expected odds range as a point of reference.

--show pool vs. trifecta key--

Now, with looking at whether boxing a group of non-favorites will be profitable should the favorite finish out of the money - it's only going to work when the favorite not only loses - but when the public also heavily keys on that favorite in the trifectas.
So the show pool(is one of many visible pools that) offers some clues.
If a horse isn't taking the lion's share of the show pool, it could be a clue that he isn't getting keyed heavily in the trifecta pool.

[Stillriledup]

Thank you Bobby.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I agree, a field box is risky, but sometimes, shouldn't you box the field and get rewarded? I'm seeing bevvy's of 7-1 shots running 1-2-3 and only getting back 1/3rd of the entire investment seems odd to me. Seems way short.

Once in a while, yes.
Here's an example.
A friend of mine and a buddy of his were on their way back home and they decided to stop in at Saratoga Harness just for giggles.
They decided to box( Superfecta) the entire field( 8) in a Trot race with the idea that there would be breakers among the favorites.
Lo and behold....The top three choices in the wagering all 'ran' and finished off the board. The $2.00 Super( no there was not that much on the pool) came back $32k....or $1600 for a dime....
Now I don't know what boxing 8 horses in a super costs, but they did make a tidy little profit.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Once in a while, yes.
Here's an example.
A friend of mine and a buddy of his were on their way back home and they decided to stop in at Saratoga Harness just for giggles.
They decided to box( Superfecta) the entire field( 8) in a Trot race with the idea that there would be breakers among the favorites.
Lo and behold....The top three choices in the wagering all 'ran' and finished off the board. The $2.00 Super( no there was not that much on the pool) came back $32k....or $1600 for a dime....
Now I don't know what boxing 8 horses in a super costs, but they did make a tidy little profit.

Great story, love to hear that!

[Stillriledup]

RF, take a look at the 2nd race Tri at Penn Nat tonight.

You had a 6 horse field with one horse essentially a no hoper and one other longshot who was otb and you got 40 bucks for 50 cents on that tri. The Laurel tri paid 60+ this one paid 40 in what was really a 4 horse field, the 2 bombs were easy to toss.

This tri was a "great price" compared to the other examples i used.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

RF, take a look at the 2nd race Tri at Penn Nat tonight.

You had a 6 horse field with one horse essentially a no hoper and one other longshot who was otb and you got 40 bucks for 50 cents on that tri. The Laurel tri paid 60+ this one paid 40 in what was really a 4 horse field, the 2 bombs were easy to toss.

This tri was a "great price" compared to the other examples i used.

That one did play pretty good.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...the problem with the trifecta payoffs at PENN isn't the takeout. It's the past-post wagering.

And I don't believe Penn is the only track effected by that.

[Valuist]

Speaking of past posting, if Volponi doesn't win the 2002 BC Classic at AP, and a favorite like Medaglia D'oro wins, how long do the Drexel hackers continue their pic 6 "magic"? They only were in the spotlight because of the giant payoff, thanks to the huge pool and Volponi. When they were interviewed it all began to unravel. Has anyone in their right mind ever played a 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12 p6 ticket?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Speaking of past posting, if Volponi doesn't win the 2002 BC Classic at AP, and a favorite like Medaglia D'oro wins, how long do the Drexel hackers continue their pic 6 "magic"? They only were in the spotlight because of the giant payoff, thanks to the huge pool and Volponi. When they were interviewed it all began to unravel. Has anyone in their right mind ever played a 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12 p6 ticket?

They were idiots, they didnt realize they only needed to hit it once. AND, if they hit it once, they're probably still plying their trade 13 years later skimming the pools.

Who's to say that there aren't other guys out there in 2014 who are much smarter and are just taking very small amounts at a time?

While they made this big song and dance about catching the past posters, i haven't really heard much about how the tote systems in America have been upgraded so that this will never happen again.

Do we really think the greatest hackers in the world in 2014 can't get into the tote systems of a game that's still essentially living in 1970? AND, even if the "Game" caught someone skimming or past posting, what's to say they wouldn't sweep it under the rug to avoid bad publicity? After all, they only care about getting their cut of the takeout, they don't make any extra money if different people win, they get paid on the bets....so it doesnt matter to them one way or another if there's past posting because the past posters are paying the takeout.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Who's to say that there aren't other guys out there in 2014 who are much smarter and are just taking very small amounts at a time?

While they made this big song and dance about catching the past posters, i haven't really heard much about how the tote systems in America have been upgraded so that this will never happen again.

Do we really think the greatest hackers in the world in 2014 can't get into the tote systems of a game that's still essentially living in 1970? AND, even if the "Game" caught someone skimming or past posting, what's to say they wouldn't sweep it under the rug to avoid bad publicity? After all, they only care about getting their cut of the takeout, they don't make any extra money if different people win, they get paid on the bets....so it doesnt matter to them one way or another if there's past posting because the past posters are paying the takeout.

Sometimes the absence of evidence is evidence of absence

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Who's to say that there aren't other guys out there in 2014 who are much smarter and are just taking very small amounts at a time?

While they made this big song and dance about catching the past posters, i haven't really heard much about how the tote systems in America have been upgraded so that this will never happen again.

Do we really think the greatest hackers in the world in 2014 can't get into the tote systems of a game that's still essentially living in 1970? AND, even if the "Game" caught someone skimming or past posting, what's to say they wouldn't sweep it under the rug to avoid bad publicity? After all, they only care about getting their cut of the takeout, they don't make any extra money if different people win, they get paid on the bets....so it doesnt matter to them one way or another if there's past posting because the past posters are paying the takeout.

I agree 100%. But I'm sure many we'll say we are just paranoid bettors. I've been suspicious of a late window open at Hawthorne for years. And I guarantee you it ain't the only place. I guess we are just supposed to believe the only past posting was the 2002 BC. Until we found out the Drexel crowd did it a number of times before that. And that CD and the FG have had incidents in recent years of past posting, and the infamous "Dare and Defy" race at Arlington in 1984. I guess those are the ONLY incidents of past posting.....nothing to see here.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I agree 100%. But I'm sure many we'll say we are just paranoid bettors. I've been suspicious of a late window open at Hawthorne for years. And I guarantee you it ain't the only place. I guess we are just supposed to believe the only past posting was the 2002 BC. Until we found out the Drexel crowd did it a number of times before that. And that CD and the FG have had incidents in recent years of past posting, and the infamous "Dare and Defy" race at Arlington in 1984. I guess those are the ONLY incidents of past posting.....nothing to see here.

Better to be "paranoid" and question everything rather than just say nothing and look the other way.

If the industry has nothing to hide and there's no past posting and the tote systems are as secure as fort knox with multiple checks and balances, than why not say this? Why "hide" in the bushes when a past posting incident happens and say nothing, crickets?

If we ask and bump this thread (see below) dozens of times and yet, nothing at all, its hard to believe anything they say.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...highlight=trpb