Extreme Pace Scenaios

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I have found out the hard way, two things. Betting a closer coming out of fast paced race is bad idea. Betting a front runner coming out of a fast paced race is not a much better idea despite the logic that says they should be contenders in a slower paced race. I don't have charts to back up those statements, just torn up tickets. In general horses coming out of fast paced races should be avoided. So should horses coming out of a slow paced race, because of a slow paced race is a sign of lack of quality horses in the race. IMO

No wonder you don't find many bets...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I have found out the hard way, two things. Betting a closer coming out of fast paced race is bad idea. Betting a front runner coming out of a fast paced race is not a much better idea despite the logic that says they should be contenders in a slower paced race. I don't have charts to back up those statements, just torn up tickets. In general horses coming out of fast paced races should be avoided. So should horses coming out of a slow paced race, because of a slow paced race is a sign of lack of quality horses in the race. IMO

I have also found all sorts of complications in slow paced races and with closers in fast paced races. But IMO fast paced races for front runners are more straightforward and provide some of the best bets in racing.

If you run too fast early it will impact your final time negatively.

If you are a need the lead type and get outrun by faster horses early, it will usually impact your final time negatively.

The trick is in figuring out what's too fast for horse "X".

It's different depending on whether the track is carrying speed well or deep/tiring and it seems to be different depending on how much natural speed and class the horse has. Sometimes a hot pace will carry a great horse to an even faster time because it has the reserves to cope and continue on.

It also isn't linear.

If you go 1/5 too fast it slows you by X.

If you go 2/5 too fast it slows you by 2X.

If you go 5/5 too fast it slows you by more than 5x.

If you go 10/5 too fast they might cart you off in the ambulance eased.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Of course I steal ideas form the best!

No problem, I started doing this as a Quirin / Giles combo long ago!

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I have found out the hard way, two things. Betting a closer coming out of fast paced race is bad idea. Betting a front runner coming out of a fast paced race is not a much better idea despite the logic that says they should be contenders in a slower paced race. I don't have charts to back up those statements, just torn up tickets. In general horses coming out of fast paced races should be avoided. So should horses coming out of a slow paced race, because of a slow paced race is a sign of lack of quality horses in the race. IMO

I disagree, I think betting speed horses out of fast paced races is the way to go, especially if they lost ground during the fast part of the race. Of course you still have to handicap the next race, nothing is ever easy in this game.

Closer coming out of slow paced races are trickier, but there is value there too. Same deal, look for horses caught wide during the fast part of the race and still making up ground and positions.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cj

I disagree, I think betting speed horses out of fast paced races is the way to go, especially if they lost ground during the fast part of the race. Of course you still have to handicap the next race, nothing is ever easy in this game.

Closer coming out of slow paced races are trickier, but there is value there too. Same deal, look for horses caught wide during the fast part of the race and still making up ground and positions.

Excellent insight that takes handicapping beyond just speed.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Excellent insight that takes handicapping beyond just speed.

When did Cj ever talk "just speed"?

[JustRalph]

My Jcapper data is pretty much the same as Tom's. I just narrowed it to flag races where the pace is extreme, when looking at a days card. So many people have the same data now that what used to be an opportunity to bet a closer at a good price is now a 9-10 dollar horse. Especially on the big circuits where the players are tuned in.

It can help on exotics in the 2-4 slots if one horse is a huge standout

[Tom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

When did Cj ever talk "just speed"?

When did anyone?