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11-19-2014, 06:04 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
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Honor Code returns on Saturday at Aqueduct
It's a 6.5 F sprint. I think it's too short for him, although I haven't looked at the competition yet (I will today).
What do you think?
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11-19-2014, 07:01 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
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After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.
BRIS PPs
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11-19-2014, 08:50 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.
BRIS PPs
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This is a "throwback" race of the 60s and 70s; Snug's horse will get the job done because he is the class of this bunch.
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11-19-2014, 09:16 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
After looking at the race, maybe Maleeh takes it off the layoff. He certainly has a nice sprint pedigree.
BRIS PPs
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It looks like a good race to bet, as Honor Code will likely be dramatically overbet, and even if he somehow wins, he rates to be poor value. Shug has bad numbers off layoffs on dirt and this is clearly a prep, plus there are good horses in here.
The problem with Maleeh, and Kiaran has exceptional numbers off layoffs in dirt sprints, is that this is just his second race in over 19 months.
I picked Pure Sensation, though I am a little worried about the pace.
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11-19-2014, 09:35 PM
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#5
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Green Gratto looks good to me...
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11-19-2014, 10:18 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Crafty Dreamer looks like an overlay, but this is a race where you probably should go fairly deep.
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11-19-2014, 11:53 PM
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#7
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First Time Gelding
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 642
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Green Gratto will be at least 60-1 against this field....
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11-20-2014, 12:09 AM
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#8
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First Time Gelding
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 642
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I think 5-2 3-1 on Honor Code would be excellent value in this spot...this horse should be at his best one turn sprinting and there should be a good amount of pace to run into....I don't think Shug will have him all the way cranked up but I don't think he has to be his best to win in this spot
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11-20-2014, 12:47 AM
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#9
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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It will be a Monster Mash in this race...
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11-20-2014, 12:52 AM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Andy's right, HC will be overbet, especially if it doesn't appear to be a speed bias. Very hard race, first time vs salty older horses for HC and he will be in the back in a large field. 2-1 or 5-2 might be an ok price, but my gut tells me he will be closer to 1-1.
Someone mentioned Green Gratto, that's an amazingly interesting horse, started off his career with Beyers of: 34, 22, 20, 0 and 46. Than, starting in his 6th lifetime start, he reeled off Beyers of: 73, 77, 90, 95, 83, 92 and 93.
Now he's back to the 40s and 50s. You rarely see that kind of jump, from a horse who can't run at all, to a serious horse running 90+.
I might take a shot with Crafty Dreamer, he likes the track, has a nice work over it on Nov 13th, he's going to need racing luck in this wide open affair.
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11-20-2014, 09:58 AM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I might take a shot with Crafty Dreamer, he likes the track, has a nice work over it on Nov 13th, he's going to need racing luck in this wide open affair.
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Yea, I had CD in the mix rated as a decent value on July 13 (that was a race with a bad morning line & I thought he had run well enough from post 13, in Zivo's Commentator previously to be a value key). However, on July 13th the pace was arguably pretty fast.
He then Drops to Alw1x and scores next out Sept 7th (I haven't reviewed that race yet he was still nearly 4-1, so either he was an overlay that I missed, or there were decent foes).
Then, he comes back in the Hudson and is 23-1, and finishes 4.75 back from post 11.
I like Honor Code. I took a shot against him in Florida because that sharp sprinter drew inside, and he was underlaid, but he's a quality horse. I'll root for him here.
However, if Honor Code is 4/5, it may be prudent to spread around, do a key with Crafty Dreamer, do a key with the Clement horse. I'm not even against using Maleeh(230days/race/245days) as a B or 'C' horse as part of the spread-around, if Honor Code is a massive underlay.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-20-2014 at 10:02 AM.
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11-20-2014, 10:31 AM
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#12
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Good betting race..
Honor Code has already started as the favorite three times, managing to loose two of them.
This ridgling's career high light so far, was his last year's victory in Remsen..
His injury kept him out for nine months, falling behind in his evolution as a promising three years old. Pedigree-wise looks more like a turf router.
Tries older for first time.
Why he is entered in such a soft spot ? I would expect to see him next year in Florida against classier company..
I believe he will certainly be over-bet and will be a perfect favourite to bet against. Pace scenario and track bias are the key factors for this race... Under the right conditions, I can see the potential for a huge surprise here...
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11-20-2014, 10:51 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
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I'm going to guess that Honor Code will only be a lukewarm favorite and possibly not the favorite at all.
You've got the injury, layoff, distance, and Shug almost certainly using this as a prep all being obvious concerns. IMO he won't get bet heavily.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-20-2014 at 11:04 AM.
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11-20-2014, 11:04 AM
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#14
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm going to guess that Honor Code will only be a lukewarm favorite and possibly not the favorite at all.
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If he's not the favorite, would be a good day to go to the zoo.
Supposed to be sunny.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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11-20-2014, 06:45 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arw629
I think 5-2 3-1 on Honor Code would be excellent value in this spot...this horse should be at his best one turn sprinting and there should be a good amount of pace to run into....I don't think Shug will have him all the way cranked up but I don't think he has to be his best to win in this spot
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It's pretty rare that an A.P. Indy prefers sprinting, and I was about to write on the route features of Honor Code's dam side. Then I found his dam was a sprinter.
His third dam is Serena's Song though, one of the greatest female dirt routers of the past 20 years.
In addition, Honor Code's immediate sibling is Noble Tune, a good turf horse that competed in turf routes.
Last edited by letswastemoney; 11-20-2014 at 06:47 PM.
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