November Survivor Pool Contest

[davew]

Date: 11/26
Track: FL
Race #: 6
Horse #: 8
Horse Name: Uncommon Grounds
Morning Line Odds: 7/2 ML fav

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/26/2014
Track: Zia Park
Race #: 9
Horse #: 8
Horse Name: Lady Contender
Morning Line Odds: 5-1

[Enigma]

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.

[Tom]

Date: 11/26
Track: Haw
Race #: 8
Horse #: 9
Horse Name: Gentlemen's Code
Morning Line Odds: 7/2

[Tom]

Buh-bye!

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Enigma

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.

I think everyone knows that the zero score needs tweaked. It is the first contest like this so you always need tweaking of the rules. Zero has to fixed.

Allan

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Enigma

11/26/2014

No Skill Required. Go to a track where the M/L is always crap, find a race where the M/L favorite is 7/2 and there are more than 8 runners and you have got it made, then pat yourself on the back....geeze !!!! I won the contest.

Got to give Davew credit, he thought of it from the get-go.........

[davew]

Date: 11/27
Track: GPW (CRC)
Race #: 9
Horse #: 7
Horse Name: Street Icon
Morning Line Odds: 5/2 ML fav

[Redboard]

Don’t let the trash-talking get to you Dave. You’re having an incredible run. Keep doing what you’re doing. To say that bad ML favs don’t win is not true - I’ve been beaten many, many, many times by them.

Looking forward to the stretch run here and an exciting finish.

Get your popcorn ready.

[davew]

Yes, i realize bad ML always have a chance of winning (and just because I think they are bad might mean I am wrong). I am not focusing on bad tracks with big fields, but races where I feel there are 3-4 just as good or better horses bringing the ML fav down below 20% probability of winning (by my estimate).

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by davew

Yes, i realize bad ML always have a chance of winning (and just because I think they are bad might mean I am wrong). I am not focusing on bad tracks with big fields, but races where I feel there are 3-4 just as good or better horses bringing the ML fav down below 20% probability of winning (by my estimate).

Dave, if you can identify 10 M/L false favorites in a row, you belong among the top 2% in the game........very difficult to do, and I'm rooting for you as I admire great handicapping feats of this nature.....

[biggestal99]

Date: 11/27/2014
Track: Del Mar
Race #: 7
Horse #: 3
Horse Name: Finnegans Wake
Morning Line Odds: 9-2

[Enigma]

Please let me explain, my comments were not trash talking or aimed at davew it was meant to pin point the weakness of the contest which is why there was a low number of contestants. The rules are not tight enough to make it a real contest. I would have finished in 2nd place....big deal.
I believe davew will agree with my comments. To make it a true handicapping test anyone who picks a M/L favorite and the horse does not go off as favorite it is a no selection. To make it true test of handicapping to score zero if you should pick a favorite it should go off as favorite to score zero.

[davew]

Date: 11/28
Track: CD
Race #: 1
Horse #: 1
Horse Name: Sugar Pie
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 ML fav

[Enigma]

11/29.
Track: Fairgrounds.
Race: #8
Horse: #5
Horse Name: Sweet Baby Gaines
Morning Line Odds:9/2 Favorite

Track: Fairgrounds.
Race: #10
Horse: #10
Horse Name: Porto Pottee
Morning Line Odds: 3/1 Favorite