Can Show Wagering Lead to Profits?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Wow! This is a real price, that can lead to a real score!!!!

That depends.
If someone told you that you could bet every dime under the sun
on tomorrow being Tuesday Nov 4th, 2014, and get paid even money,
don't you think you would mortgage your house, and liquidate everything
you could to get down? It all comes down to probabilities.

That being said, I wouldn't have bet CC to show
with someone else's money last Saturday.

[Dave Schwartz]

The problem with show betting is that every wager you make indirectly includes the impact of the other two horses.

Let me say it differently... your price usually depends upon one or more horses at 5/2 and below taking an equal share of the pie.

It is like asking, "Can I make money betting exactas if I every ticket I write must include at least one horse at 5/2 or below."

Doesn't mean you cannot make money. It just means it will be difficult.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

You seem a pretty shrewd guy, and I wouldn't dispute your methods.
The high volume of late off-track money these days, though, would
scare me away from trying to guess potential show payoffs.
Unless the pools were very sizeable.

I was brought up on UK-style odds making.
For me, a show price should pay approximately one fifth of the win odds.
US show pools seldom hold up when it comes to that yardstick.
Big races (Triple Crown, BC, etc.) tend to pay the best show prices,
because the pools are so good.

I don't often see large late movement in the show prices, they are quite stable, and anyway, that's why I said I want a minimum of $3.00, but don't bet unless it looks like I can get at least $3.60. I'm giving myself a cushion against late money.

Win odds never enter into the equation as to what I think a fair show price would be.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Show is a very weak betting. I am a firm believer that horse betting is all about the large pay day and not about grinding; show betting represents the exact opposite to this approach and should be avoided as it also has the smaller pools and the highest breakage of all other bets. The feel of security that comes with show betting, is nothing else than a illusion, since in the long run it will behave very similar to win or place.

I would never bet exclusively to show, it would be too boring for one thing. My main objective is superfectas. After toying around with show bets successfully for several years, I decided starting Jan 2013 to get serious and make it a permanent part of my wagering strategy. I was influenced by N. N. Taleb's barbell investment strategy. So far it works like a charm. My losing streaks in these past 22 months are massively smaller in both duration and amount lost.

My superfecta key horses rarely win, nor do I think they can win when I bet them, so I don't see how my show bets would behave similar to win bets. Place bets, maybe.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The problem with show betting is that every wager you make indirectly includes the impact of the other two horses.

Let me say it differently... your price usually depends upon one or more horses at 5/2 and below taking an equal share of the pie.

It is like asking, "Can I make money betting exactas if I every ticket I write must include at least one horse at 5/2 or below."

Doesn't mean you cannot make money. It just means it will be difficult.

Net pool pricing significantly reduces, but doesn't eliminate the impact of the other two horses. I am usually winning on the longest price of the three horses. With net pool pricing, the longest priced horse pays more than it would with the traditional method of calculating, whilst the lowest priced horse pays less. But where net pool pricing really helps is it is easy to look at the amount bet on my horse and predict a minimum payout, I rarely have to look at the amount bet on any other horse. I don't think I would be a show bettor without net pool pricing.

[TheOracle]

I noticed that last year in 2013 trainer C C Brown had a streak where he hit the board 16 consecutive times at Saratoga between August 17th to August 24th, 2013.

Below you will find the detail for the streak:



For those who say no to the show betting if you had played C C Brown's horses to show each time during the streak it would have cost you $34 and you would have made $52.40 which is a 59% return on your money.

For those who are more conservative and wagered $2 to win, place and show on his horses it would have cost you $102 and you would have won $130.90 giving a profit of $28.90 which is a 28% return on your money/


Below you will find the parlay amounts for the streak up to the very end!!

If you decided to parlay your show winnings from the very beginning of the streak you would have made $1,752.70 not too shabby for an initial $2 show bet!!



The question is, would you have risked $1,752 on the longshot that ended the streak? I don't think I would have had the heart to do so, I would have stopped at $111.85 if I even had the courage to go that route.

I have been trying to find streaks such as this but I have had very limited success in doing so in the New York circuit.

[TheOracle]

Also notice that if you played C C Brown's horses to win during the streak you would have only made $0.40 for your effort a 1% return on your money.

You actually came out ahead by playing his horses to show or across the board!!

[Light]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

My minimum acceptable price is $3.00 but realistically I don't bet unless I think I will get at least $3.60. With experience it is easy to estimate a minimum return by looking at an online tote board. My win percentage hovers in the low to mid 70% range.

For me parlays are neither necessary nor desirable.

I actually go lower and welcome $2.80 with $2.60 being cutoff. My hit rate is 80% with an ROI of almost 100% when I concentrate on show bets. (tracked by TS)

Show betting is the most underrated bet in horse racing. That is because when a typical horse player is asked how much he made at the end of the year with all his "smart" bets, if he says 15% ROI, people are impressed. But that just translates into a measly $2.30 on the show betting scale. Next year, just take your entire bankroll for the year and make one large bet on a sure chalk and take the rest of the year off. That's how dumb regular betting is. You waste all that time and energy to end up getting less than an experienced show better can get with one bet.

One of the biggest advantages to show betting and what has pushed me in that direction is that despite one's best efforts there are forces out of your handicapping control. Today I had a nice exacta coming down the stretch when a 57-1 comes out of the clouds and beats me. In retrospect, If I had taken all the money I bet in that race in exotics and instead put it on my key horse to show, (who ran 2nd) I would have made the same amount as if the exotic hit. This sort of thing is not an anomaly. You lose photos for this and that. Yes it is a little irritating when you bet a horse to show and he wins at $20 and you get $4 for the show. But you can't think about that if you commit to show. If you have a show betting plan method, it will make the win irrelevant. Basically if you bet a percentage of your bankroll as it grows, so does your show bets. The rewards are great.

[HUSKER55]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Link? Oh my God...please give us a link!

http://www.youtube.com/user/UltimateSelector


there is the link and I hope it works.

[jasperson]

This book has some interesting statistic about place and show betting. Also how to calculate if a place or show bet on the favorite is profitable.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

I don't often see large late movement in the show prices, they are quite stable, and anyway, that's why I said I want a minimum of $3.00, but don't bet unless it looks like I can get at least $3.60. I'm giving myself a cushion against late money.

Win odds never enter into the equation as to what I think a fair show price would be.

I see the exact opposite or at least I use too. I stopped looking at them 5 years ago. except for bridge jumpers.