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11-02-2014, 08:59 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Can Show Wagering Lead to Profits?
I have often wondered if show wagering can lead to profits.
I believe it can if you parlay your winnings and hit the right type of streak.
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11-02-2014, 09:17 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,739
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its very tough to win betting show because the payoffs are usually $4.00 or less, you are paying the takeout plus you can pay hefty breakage. if you chose to bet show, try to stick with New York or Canadian tracks, they pay to the dime while the other's are 20 cents. also if you are playing show make sure you don't bet to much, the pools aren't that big.
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11-02-2014, 11:15 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 155
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In Hong-Kong show betting is a very good wager. Pool size is about USD $2 mil for typical race and there is no breakage. Average place winner's payoff is 2.63 to 1.
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11-02-2014, 11:15 PM
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#4
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheOracle
I have often wondered if show wagering can lead to profits.
I believe it can if you parlay your winnings and hit the right type of streak.
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My primary handicapping skill is finding in-the-money horses at a good price. Although my primary objective is superfectas, I play show bet 'savers' and these bets have been profitable for many years. My minimum acceptable price is $3.00 but realistically I don't bet unless I think I will get at least $3.60. With experience it is easy to estimate a minimum return by looking at an online tote board. My win percentage hovers in the low to mid 70% range.
For me parlays are neither necessary nor desirable.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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11-02-2014, 11:35 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by therussmeister
With experience it is easy to estimate a minimum return by looking at an online tote board.
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You seem a pretty shrewd guy, and I wouldn't dispute your methods.
The high volume of late off-track money these days, though, would
scare me away from trying to guess potential show payoffs.
Unless the pools were very sizeable.
I was brought up on UK-style odds making.
For me, a show price should pay approximately one fifth of the win odds.
US show pools seldom hold up when it comes to that yardstick.
Big races (Triple Crown, BC, etc.) tend to pay the best show prices,
because the pools are so good.
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11-03-2014, 02:02 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 539
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My first exposure to..............???
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheOracle
I have often wondered if show wagering can lead to profits.
I believe it can if you parlay your winnings and hit the right type of streak.
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My first exposure to show betting was in an article about a Pro on the Ontario Jockey club circuit.
The Pro was a show bettor............and he was like betting 200, 300, 400 dollars to show on favorites and the Pro was showing a profit.
Of course, you have to hit like over 85% rate to show a profit but he was doing it.
Of course, I tried doing it as a kid and I went broke..........!!!
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Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!
Last edited by Sinner369; 11-03-2014 at 02:04 AM.
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11-03-2014, 08:26 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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ultimate selector knows how to do that. I don't think he does it as a regular bet but US has a video on you-tube of being thrown out of an OTB for winning too much.
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Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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11-03-2014, 12:45 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
ultimate selector knows how to do that. I don't think he does it as a regular bet but US has a video on you-tube of being thrown out of an OTB for winning too much.
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That's ridiculous.
How the hell can anyone be thrown out of an OTB for winning too much?
Disorderly conduct, or undesirable behavior? Sure.
Any and every OTB manager has one top goal.
That is to make their outlet highly profitable.
Winning horse players make attaining that goal much easier.
Handle is generally increased the more players win.
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11-03-2014, 01:13 PM
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#9
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Show is a very weak betting. I am a firm believer that horse betting is all about the large pay day and not about grinding; show betting represents the exact opposite to this approach and should be avoided as it also has the smaller pools and the highest breakage of all other bets. The feel of security that comes with show betting, is nothing else than a illusion, since in the long run it will behave very similar to win or place.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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11-03-2014, 02:02 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 97
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
That's ridiculous.
How the hell can anyone be thrown out of an OTB for winning too much?
Disorderly conduct, or undesirable behavior? Sure.
Any and every OTB manager has one top goal.
That is to make their outlet highly profitable.
Winning horse players make attaining that goal much easier.
Handle is generally increased the more players win.
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Minus pools in show betting. OTB is on the hook for them for taking the bet.
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11-03-2014, 02:05 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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between the take and breakage, the show pool gets raped. Breakage is 3X that of the win pool, for instance. Show pool has it's use, about 3 or 4 times a year for me, but I would suggest it's tough to make a living in there.
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11-03-2014, 03:24 PM
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#12
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,537
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
ultimate selector knows how to do that. I don't think he does it as a regular bet but US has a video on you-tube of being thrown out of an OTB for winning too much.
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Link? Oh my God...please give us a link! 
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11-03-2014, 03:27 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MadWorld
Minus pools in show betting. OTB is on the hook for them for taking the bet.
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Fair point.
The man must be quite the whale.
Running mutuels department in downtown Chicago OTBs,
we never had that problem. That was 20 years ago, though.
The only sticky situation that ever arose was policing for
pool manipulation at small harness meetings.
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11-03-2014, 04:22 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 75
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California Chrome paying $5.40 to Show in the BC Classic is all the evidence you need that there is value to be found in Show pools.
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11-03-2014, 04:43 PM
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#15
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TucsonGreyhound
California Chrome paying $5.40 to Show in the BC Classic is all the evidence you need that there is value to be found in Show pools.
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Wow! This is a real price, that can lead to a real score!!!!
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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