Are Trial Maidens really heartless?

[pandy]

Yesterday in the 5th race at Aqueduct a 4yo gelding named Eight Cents broke his maiden at 6/5 odds in his 16th start. Many would call this horse a "trial maiden".

Some say that there are horses that lack the will to win. I've always felt that this is an exaggeration, every dog has its day, and that most so-called trial maidens that struggle to win are actually trying their best but are simply not fast enough. When they meet a field of slower horses, they have just as much chance to win as most horses. So it has little to do with heart or courage, it's speed.

Eight Cents found that field yesterday, a field where he clearly had superior speed figures. He opened up a 6 length lead and won clear by almost 3 lengths. Can you say that this horse lacks heart? Or is he just a slow horse that finally found a field he could beat?

[mountainman]

Count me in the "lack heart" camp. Most habitual losers can't finish, and I have wondered if it's really a stamina issue, or they just lack the courage to fight through fatigue.

Lots of chronic maidens run just fast enough to lose, and this can be affirmed by a flux in speed numbers. Also, if it were simply a matter of being too slow, why do so many sucker horses burn so much money? The public specializes in determining how fast a horse can run, that's what the brutally efficient win-pool DOES. Thus, when players misfire repeatedly in pegging a certain horse as likeliest winner, surely they've miscalculated the animal's mental-makeup as much as ability.

Just my opinion. Cool topic.

[wisconsin]

Horses are pack animals and some simply do not want to be leaders of the pack. They get real close and let the leader be the leader. Sometimes, they are fast enough that they have to win, usually from off the pace. Sooner or later, they meet a field weaker than they are.

[cj]

This is more a visual thing for me, you can see horses that don't want to pass others.

[Stillriledup]

i don't care what the record is, if a horse looks like he's digging in or fighting hard to win, he can be 0 for 50 and it wont bother me.

The tape tells more than the paper, at least for me anyway.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I consider a lot of Claiming NW2L horses to be Accidental Winners of 1 Race.

[cutchemist42]

In the end, do these types of "almost-there" horses even offer good odds?

[thaskalos]

Yes...it appears that these chronic maidens lack the courage and the drive that other horses have. When they finally win a race...that victory says more about the field they faced than the race-winner.

[Robert Fischer]

So is a long-term maiden simply "too slow" or is there a "lack of heart/intangibles"?


I see it as a case-by-case issue.

Mountainman addresses something big:

Originally Posted by mountainman

... why do so many sucker horses burn so much money? The public specializes in determining how fast a horse can run, that's what the brutally efficient win-pool DOES. Thus, when players misfire repeatedly in pegging a certain horse as likeliest winner, surely they've miscalculated the animal's mental-makeup as much as ability.

The odds from the losing efforts can provide some clues toward solving the original question.

The horse from the original post was 0-16, but he had actually been running to his odds. Then, yesterday, he went off at even money.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'

I consider a lot of Claiming NW2L horses to be Accidental Winners of 1 Race.

Yes. And it's my further belief that, for several reasons, most horses show their true limitations when they win, not when they lose.

[WJ47]

My sister and I argue back and forth about this when we handicap. When she sees a horse fall to last when he's confronted by another horse, she crosses him off the list in future races. Also when a horse has the momentum to pass another horse, but refuses to do so. I think there are some horses that don't have the will to win, but I also think it has a lot to do with class. Like how I'd probably do well if I had to debate a person with a low IQ and I'd probably do terrible if I had to debate someone with an IQ substantially higher than mine even if the questions were the same.

[Clocker]

There is also the issue of class. Too many losses at the same level could just mean that the connections have an unrealistic opinion of the horse's ability. If the horse is slowing descending the class ladder without showing any improvement, I just write it off as unbettable, whatever the reason.

Most of them will never win. A Jockey Club study some time ago found that 55% of horses registered to race over a 10 year period retired from racing as maidens.

[Milkshaker]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've always felt that this is an exaggeration, every dog has its day, and that most so-called trial maidens that struggle to win are actually trying their best but are simply not fast enough.

Differences in opinion make this a great game. You go ahead and bet these 0-16 creatures at 6-5, and I'll keep betting against 'em. I look for exactly these bet-against opportunities every single day and relish doing so.

[pandy]

It really depends on each individual situation. Yes, generally speaking a trial maiden that is 6-5 is a bad bet. But, in the race I mentioned, the horse simply laid over the field. I actually think that many 6-5 shots in allowance and stakes races are worse bets, even though they're good horses. I'd rather bet a horse that is a second faster than any horse in the field than a horse that has a good record but doesn't have a big advantage on speed figures, and I see horses like that lose often at 6-5. Favorites in allowance races that are N2W and up are usually bad bets because the races are too competitive.