Breeders Cup Multi Race Strategy

[Disenchantedguy]

Just doing some brainstorming and want feedback. It seems as if a player with a modest bankroll (what I consider myself) would be better suited playing the pick 4's with the "caveman" approach. If you can "just" hit one of the pick 4s then you are probably going to get rewarded semi-handsomely. I know that it could be 4 chalks and a depressed payoff, but most of the time there is not really many "chalks" to speak of on Breeders Cup days. Most horses have decent odds even when they are favored on the huge racing days. I agree entirely with the premise of the Crist approach of A/B/C, betting more on the A tickets etc., but the Breeders Cup races are so difficult to handicap you need really deep pockets to effectively apply that approach to these races in my humble opinion. It seems like a 4x4x4x4 (just an example) Caveman would be a better approach for the moderate bankrolled player than trying to narrow it down further and use the A/B/C method for these difficult and challenging races. If I was playing a pick 4 on a Friday afternoon Aqueduct card, I would probably A/B/C it for sure, but this just seems like an ill advised strategy for these demanding races UNLESS you can use $100 bills to light your cigars with! Opinions???

[Stillriledup]

Unless you have a massive bankroll, betting pick 4s is not advised, especially with 12 and 14 horse fields all over the place.

Stick with win bets.

[Disenchantedguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Unless you have a massive bankroll, betting pick 4s is not advised, especially with 12 and 14 horse fields all over the place.

Stick with win bets.

I agree. I've stated before the lowly win bet is my favorite wager of all. Always has been and probably always will be. BUT, like most, I feel a little reckless gambling every once in a while spices things up! You never know, you just might get lucky. Key word definitely being MIGHT.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Disenchantedguy

I agree. I've stated before the lowly win bet is my favorite wager of all. Always has been and probably always will be. BUT, like most, I feel a little reckless gambling every once in a while spices things up! You never know, you just might get lucky. Key word definitely being MIGHT.

I would say that a better option for you in the pick 4 instead of going 4x4x4x4 would be go 8x8x2x2. Many of these races are too difficult to only go 4 deep.

[davew]

When horses come from all over the world and all wanting to win, getting multirace exotics is like a lottery.

Before doing something like you suggest, I would rather bet $2 to win on everyone.

[dansan]

breeder cup totally different ballgame

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by dansan

breeder cup totally different ballgame

Ok Dansan, I got some free time to read your take on how to play the BC............fire away.

[dansan]

use all the angles u can think of and cross your fingers

[Redboard]

Here is my strategy for playing the pick 4 on BC day, with a limited budget. Look at the four races and determine a single. If you can’t pick the winner of one of four races, then you should be playing poker or something else. The single has to be either the favorite or the 2nd favorite (unless you have some kind of inside information). If it’s not, then plunk down the whole wad on that horse to win and forget the pick 4! The advantage of these multi-race bets is to turn an odds-on fav into a bigger score. Now that you have your favorite, look at the other three races, pick one race to use the last eight favorites. The other two races you are going to do your handicapping and use either 2x5 or 3x4. This will cost around $40. Play two of these but keep the same single on both. Use another leg to go eight deep. Total cost will be $80. Good luck.

[PhantomOnTour]

Rolling Doubles?

I love playing those

[DeltaLover]

My preferred betting strategy for BBD (BIG BETTING DAYS) where pools are going to be big enough to sustain large bets without affecting the prices is the following:

1) Specify the amount you are going to bet, for example $1K

2) Preselect the races that you are going to bet. Ideally you should pick 4 or 5 races, no less and no more.

3) Start with the assumption that you need to be correct at least on two races from the 4 or 5 races you selected

4) Calculate the dollar amount needed to parlay for all possible combinations of two races:

For example:

Assuming $1K bankroll and 4 races you have six different two-race parlay which means you are going to bet each one for $166. In this case you need the following parlay:

A X B : 166
A X C: 166
A X D: 166

Total bet in the first race will be $498

B X C: 166
B X D: 166

Total bet in the second race will be $332

C X D: 166

Total bet in the third race will be $166

Be sure to keep clear records about the amount you are going to bet, since if you are lucky and hit A or B you might get confused..

Possible returns

For each betting race, try to maintain at least a 3 -1 return on your total investment. So, based on this assumption we expect any of the parlay to return over $2,500. Of course based in your selections you can boost the return value to way higher levels, for example if your average return is 4-1 (instead of 3-1), your return will be over $4K.

If you manage to hit three out of the four races, you will end up with three winning parlay and if it is your day and you manage to hit all of them, then you will hit the jack pot with six winning parlay..

[1st time lasix]

Handicap all the races on the card ahead of time....Rank your contenders. For a modest bankroll player that wants to play multirace wagers...I suggest the rolling pick three WITHOUT the favorite in leg one. Adhere to that all day. Occasionally you will be dead immediately..but those threes are unlikely to pay boxcars anyway. You may find yourself alive to a big one on the will pays...you can then hedge in final if you feel the need.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Disenchantedguy

Just doing some brainstorming and want feedback. It seems as if a player with a modest bankroll (what I consider myself) would be better suited playing the pick 4's with the "caveman" approach. If you can "just" hit one of the pick 4s then you are probably going to get rewarded semi-handsomely. I know that it could be 4 chalks and a depressed payoff, but most of the time there is not really many "chalks" to speak of on Breeders Cup days. Most horses have decent odds even when they are favored on the huge racing days. I agree entirely with the premise of the Crist approach of A/B/C, betting more on the A tickets etc., but the Breeders Cup races are so difficult to handicap you need really deep pockets to effectively apply that approach to these races in my humble opinion. It seems like a 4x4x4x4 (just an example) Caveman would be a better approach for the moderate bankrolled player than trying to narrow it down further and use the A/B/C method for these difficult and challenging races. If I was playing a pick 4 on a Friday afternoon Aqueduct card, I would probably A/B/C it for sure, but this just seems like an ill advised strategy for these demanding races UNLESS you can use $100 bills to light your cigars with! Opinions???

Hi Disenchantedguy,

I hope you hit!

Your strategy is fine, as are some of the others.

When it comes down to a luck/fun style play, there isn't as much strategy.

One idea that I kind of like involves evaluating races in the sequence according to their Favorites.

as so:

1. "Strong" - these are ones you feel are locks and can single!
2. "Default" - these are ones you feel you have to include, but are worth trying to beat.
3. "False" - these are ones you hate and will leave completely off the ticket!

A "Strong" favorite is an automatic single - and that saves you money on your ticket.


A "False" favorite is a chance for a big score and gives you 4 chances at a price horse.


The "Default" favorite is the worst of the three, because you don't get the discount of singling 1 horse or the value of using 4 big prices.


"S" and "F" races are the building blocks and "D" races are the fill-ins.


That's a small tip from me. It's going to take some good luck and some good skill no matter what you do.

[RunDustyRun]

I completely agree with the "caveman" pick four tickets on BC day...my only suggestion, as others have noted above, is that I would find a single so you can go deeper in the other races and hopefully hit w/ a longshot