Greatest lesson ever learned. - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

teddy · 10-28-2014, 06:53 PM

The more money you can risk, the greater your advantage. Since I moved my bets to playing pick 6 and pick 5, I am up over 70k in 2 months. I always played $100 bets in those pools. Now I play 1000 in pick 5 and $3k in pick 6. Hit 2 p6 and many pick 5. Sometimes having them multipletimes. As soon as a 15 to one wins, all the small tics are dust. When your up 70k its easy to bet 1k a race. THATS THE TRICK. IN ALL FACETS OF LIFE ITS THE SAME . The guy with more money will get more and the little guy gets screwed. A guy with 400k can make 100 k flipping a house in a few months. Ect... little guy has no way to get into it. I am 100 percent sure your pick six group if you ever had done it would have been leveraging plenty of muscle. I dont even think you need that great a handicapper..

thaskalos · 10-28-2014, 06:55 PM

If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.

Stillriledup · 10-28-2014, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.

I used to think this was true, but i'm seeing that its not. If you take equal handicappers and one guy has a 1,000 bankroll and the other guy has 100k, the guy with the 1k is effectively priced out of the pick 5 and pick 6 as well as Penta carryovers. The guy with the 100k can put in a 5k ticket in the pick 5, he can go 8 by 9 by 10 by whatever by whatever. He can put himself in a position to get lucky, where as the guy with the 1k can only basically make 20 dollar win bets.

It just would take forever for the guy with the 1k to even run his bankroll to 2k, but the guy with the 100k can make 20k in the blink of an eye.

Robert Goren · 10-28-2014, 07:05 PM

Come back again after you hit a dry spell for a while. That said pick 6s with carryover can be a positive pool after takeout. Add in a good rebate and things are pretty ripe especially if the carryover isn't large enough to attract the big boys yet. I hope you have enough bankroll to handle the dry spells.

Note to Teddy; Did I sell you a book a few years ago or have got you mixed up with somebody else?

thaskalos · 10-28-2014, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I used to think this was true, but i'm seeing that its not. If you take equal handicappers and one guy has a 1,000 bankroll and the other guy has 100k, the guy with the 1k is effectively priced out of the pick 5 and pick 6 as well as Penta carryovers. The guy with the 100k can put in a 5k ticket in the pick 5, he can go 8 by 9 by 10 by whatever by whatever. He can put himself in a position to get lucky, where as the guy with the 1k can only basically make 20 dollar win bets.

It just would take forever for the guy with the 1k to even run his bankroll to 2k, but the guy with the 100k can make 20k in the blink of an eye.

Nothing is ever "equal". The guy with the 1K bankroll is unlikely to be as good a player as the one with the $100k bankroll. The guy with the short bankroll is making the biggest mistake he could make when he assumes that his bankroll is the reason for his failure in the game.

There are many players out there who think that a big bankroll is the only thing that separates them from the winners. They are all wrong.

Stillriledup · 10-28-2014, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Nothing is ever "equal". The guy with the 1K bankroll is unlikely to be as good a player as the one with the $100k bankroll. The guy with the short bankroll is making the biggest mistake he could make when he assumes that his bankroll is the reason for his failure in the game.

There are many players out there who think that a big bankroll is the only thing that separates them from the winners. They are all wrong.

I'm talking all things being equal. I believe that a great player with a small bankroll has a much harder chance to win just because he's priced out of the large-payout type bets as well as being priced out of chasing carryovers.

thaskalos · 10-28-2014, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I'm talking all things being equal. I believe that a great player with a small bankroll has a much harder chance to win just because he's priced out of the large-payout type bets as well as being priced out of chasing carryovers.

If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.

teddy · 10-28-2014, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you can't win with small money...then you won't win with big money. A player should EARN the right to make big wagers.

This is not true.... you Cant with with Small money is the real truth. Least not in pick 5 or 6

thaskalos · 10-28-2014, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teddy

This is not true.... you Cant with with Small money is the real truth. Least not in pick 5 or 6

Ted...you say that you currently bet $3,000 on a pick-6. How big of a bankroll do you think a player needs in order to safely wager $3k on a pick-6?

PICSIX · 10-28-2014, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Ted...you say that you currently bet $3,000 on a pick-6. How big of a bankroll do you think a player needs in order to safely wager $3k on a pick-6?

If win betting, 300-600k.....For pick-6, about 5 times that amount.

Stillriledup · 10-28-2014, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.

That's an entirely different discussion. In general, the bigger bankrolled players are better than the smaller bankrolled players, like you say, there's a reason the big bankrolled players have big bankrolls.

What about this hypothetical. Two equal players, both have 300k in their ADW accounts, but one guy decides to buy his mom a house and that house costs 298k. So, he's just as good as the 300k guy, but only has 2k in his adw.

He's great, so he will eventually turn that 2k into 20k or 50k , but it will take a LONG time to do that. Much longer than it will take the equal player who has 300k already in his account to turn that 300k into 350k.

Time is money, and no matter how great you are, it takes a long time to get 1k or 2k into 100k.

The guys with the big bankrolls all started off as 2 dollar bettors, this is the way all of us start our gambling careers, but the best of the best get their very small bankrolls into very big bankrolls....it just takes a LONG time to turn pennies into dollars. The small bankroll is a huge handicap even for the greatest of players.

lamboguy · 10-28-2014, 07:54 PM

i would have to say the amount you bet is all relative to the size of the pools. you can walk up to the window in Saratoga on Whither's or Traver's Stakes days and bet $2000 to win and not budge the board. try doing it on wednesday and you are in trouble.

Robert Goren · 10-28-2014, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If all things are equal...then why don't all the players have big bankrolls? Do you think that the players with the big bankrolls were BORN with them? The smart player should start with a moderate bankroll...and endeavor to grow it over time. The confidence in himself that he builds in the process will be worth more than the bankroll itself.

There are no shortcuts...and patience is a virtue.

Actually a lot of them were or at least they earned a lot of their bankroll outside of racing. It is a lot tougher to start as small bettor and win your way to being a large bettor because the positive ROI opportunities are few number than it is a lot of beatable gambling games.

thaskalos · 10-28-2014, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

That's an entirely different discussion. In general, the bigger bankrolled players are better than the smaller bankrolled players, like you say, there's a reason the big bankrolled players have big bankrolls.

What about this hypothetical. Two equal players, both have 300k in their ADW accounts, but one guy decides to buy his mom a house and that house costs 298k. So, he's just as good as the 300k guy, but only has 2k in his adw.

He's great, so he will eventually turn that 2k into 20k or 50k , but it will take a LONG time to do that. Much longer than it will take the equal player who has 300k already in his account to turn that 300k into 350k.

Time is money, and no matter how great you are, it takes a long time to get 1k or 2k into 100k.

The guys with the big bankrolls all started off as 2 dollar bettors, this is the way all of us start our gambling careers, but the best of the best get their very small bankrolls into very big bankrolls....it just takes a LONG time to turn pennies into dollars. The small bankroll is a huge handicap even for the greatest of players.

I don't really enjoy debating these issues, because few people understand what I am talking about...mainly because their experience in the game differs from mine. I never started as a $2 bettor. I had more money than common sense as a younger man...and I was as self-confident as I could be...even when my self confidence wasn't based on much.

As a young man, I was a studious student of the game...and I created a playing strategy pretty quickly. Because of a mix of smarts and beginner's luck, I was able to build a $5,000 bankroll into $75,000 in one year's time...and THAT'S when I fully realized the difference between managing a small bankroll and managing a big one. What followed wasn't a pretty sight. There is a different sort of "pressure" associated with making big bets...and a player should elevate to this level of betting slowly...as his confidence in himself increases. It doesn't work when the player takes out a mortgage loan...and jumps into making big bets right from the start.

teddy · 10-28-2014, 08:06 PM

If I didn't keep winning constantly I would believe it's just a fluke but after 2 months and my bankroll keeps going up and up. There is some skill of course sometimes you need to have the pic 5 7 or 8 times because of a chalk in the sequence. But what I'm saying is that you get really lucky and a sequence of events comes up or a favorite falls down.my bad changes depending on the races. I bet a $3000 pic 5 at keeneland when we had five races with 12 horses. I know the little guy cannot go deeper 5 races.I had a pick six at Belmont the other day for mid 25000 and it was fairly chalking but the favorite got beat three or four times by other low priced horses. And there was a carry over. I definitely play when there's a carryover because that's what Steve crist does to always play because of the numerical advantage.