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Originally Posted by MJC922
Hi lansdale, agree with everything you said.
It's easy to anticipate the average odds on winners to drop in real world play because even on the original sample when I did a search for all of the selections that were within 1 point of 5-1 at final odds it was something like one third or thereabouts. Given that info I suspected there were going to be a very substantial number of plays hovering right around the cutoff at 0 MTP and dropping below it thereafter.
Coming along with that expectation however, I was also looking for (and still am) a slight bump in win percentage to maybe 15% from the 14% -- instead we're tracking at just 12%. I'll post once monthly on it from here on out.
To get a line on the seasonal impact I should re-run the model over the entire year, there's no real reason I didn't do it this time other than to dodge the effort, the day job has me run-down a bit but over the holidays I might look at that. Winter has been brutal on other models I've looked at in the past. It might even make sense to have a different model for each season, or if winter is impossible to drop it altogether.
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I agree that if racing conditions remain consistent with the those from the timeframe of your sample, you should be seeing a rise in hit rate to compensate for the inevitable lowering in mean odds due to the droppers. And the kind of additional research on seasons you mention seems like a good idea.
Worth mentioning that, although I seem to be holding forth on this subject, unlike a number of others here, I'm not a modeller except in the most informal sense. You might want to think about PMing guys like Rook and sjk, who have had great success in building models, and and are accordingly very bright and well-organized people. I don't know as much about Game Theory, but he also fits with this group and I'm sure would have valuable insights into this process.
Best of luck going forward - I'll be very interested in seeing how this continues.
