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10-08-2014, 02:58 PM
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#16
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Seeing the uniqueness in a race and dealing with is the other option. Here it is guessing, but can be rewarding. It's off the linear path.
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Perhaps this race is "too" unique, and the interaction of the horses simply can't be foreseen? Yes, it "could" be rewarding (if you guess right, and get lucky), but over time, races like this one will probably not help your bottom line any. Linear thinking could mean, you see opportunity for value, and value has always been the King, so I have to bet this particular race.
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10-08-2014, 03:02 PM
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#17
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Numbers are a tool, nothing more.
Probably the best tool, but not always applicable.
A first time grass horse - why would you use a dirt number?
Pedigree, trainer ability with first grass horses, jockey ability on grass, all better tools to use.
Maiden races full of 1st or 2nd time starters - there are other tools to use.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-08-2014, 05:00 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Numbers are a tool, nothing more.
Probably the best tool, but not always applicable.
A first time grass horse - why would you use a dirt number?
Pedigree, trainer ability with first grass horses, jockey ability on grass, all better tools to use.
Maiden races full of 1st or 2nd time starters - there are other tools to use.
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That's the bite. Numbers are our biggest ally also.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-08-2014, 07:15 PM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Another big trap is the lure of "riches". People playing Supers, Tri's Pick 5s Pick 6s etc looking for that monster score....but, unless you can invest thousands and thousands into some of these bets, your 20s and 40s would be better off chasing the win pools instead.
Nothing wrong with 50 to win on a 10-1 shot.
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10-09-2014, 07:13 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
The biggest trap for handicappers is also their biggest ally, numbers. However most of us think, we usually add up some numbers and the horse with the most numbers is usually our selection. The assumption that horses add up is close enough about one third of the time, and it's just enough to keep us hanging in there. It seems that we're always one tweak away from getting it right. The winning method must be just down at the end of our formula's linear path. But the truth is a scatter graph where two thirds of the selections are not near our line and we never will get them staying on our path. The game is not linear to win. If there is a line it's squiggly if there's a line at all. How does one figure it without numbers or around numbers? Are numbers the dope and those of us who like numbers the additics?
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Numbers are worthless without intelligence behind them because leaving out the understanding of the numbers they become just abstractions. Mathematics in its pure form is an abstract science and doesn’t gaining meaning until it reaches its applied state.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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10-09-2014, 07:19 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
Linear thinking has been the downfall of multitudes of players. They know who they are, if they are honest with themselves, and generally their excuse, and "justification", is that it allows them to "jump on it before it disappears", regarding short term anomalies like perceived bias. For all those who still believe this methodology, good luck to you.
As Giles said, it's the interaction between the participants that determines the most likely outcome of those events. The horses in the field interact during the running of races, and usually that interaction determines the result. Each event is unique, never happened before, and never to happen again, so we only have "right now", "this field of horses", "and "this race". Being able to see the interaction of horses, before the race, if done correctly often enough, will take you completely out of that linear thinking and put you on the road to long term success. Because, when you start treating individual races as unique, and get good at determining their uniqueness, when you stack them back to back over time, suddenly the results become much more "linear". Weird isn't it?
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Is not that is what is proven in math? If you take a curve (nonlinear) and make it larger and larger it approaches a straight line (linear)
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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10-09-2014, 07:44 PM
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#22
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Cratos
[/B]
Is not that is what is proven in math? If you take a curve (nonlinear) and make it larger and larger it approaches a straight line (linear)
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Yeah, I was just trying to make it easier to understand, without having a math/statistics major.
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10-09-2014, 08:58 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Good numbers are like a baseball bat. In the hands of Ted Williams they can do amazing things but in the hands of Mario Mendoza, not so much.
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10-10-2014, 05:21 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Not to forget that numbers are both our biggest ally and our downfall at the same time.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-10-2014, 07:36 AM
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#25
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
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Belmont, Thursday, Race 4 - does this race fit into your premise here?
I looked at the winner a long time during lunch, and ended up playing the place horse.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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10-11-2014, 05:19 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
Belmont, Thursday, Race 4 - does this race fit into your premise here?
I looked at the winner a long time during lunch, and ended up playing the place horse.
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Send me the PPs. I'll look for one at Gulfstream West (Calder) today.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-11-2014, 11:48 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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GPW Race 2 and 5
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Originally Posted by Tom
Pick a real race - theory only gets you so far.
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My picks: R2: 2-5-6 R5: 6-10-11
FYI New Class ratings: R2: 2-5-6 R5: 10-6-2
Looking for odds: R2: #5 9/2 R5: #10 6/1 (lower odds with scratches)
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-11-2014, 12:17 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
My picks: R2: 2-5-6 R5: 6-10-11
FYI New Class ratings: R2: 2-5-6 R5: 10-6-2
Looking for odds: R2: #5 9/2 R5: #10 6/1 (lower odds with scratches)
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Since these aren't my top picks, they are more place bets.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-11-2014, 02:01 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Race came in 1-2-6. My third pick not my second like I thought came in third paying $8. I knew I was in trouble when the jockey opened his coffee thermos on the #5 by the second call and fell back to last.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-11-2014, 02:08 PM
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#30
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Race came in 1-2-6. My third pick not my second like I thought came in third paying $8. I knew I was in trouble when the jockey opened his coffee thermos on the #5 by the second call and fell back to last.
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Hope he didn't get hurt when he fell. Guess you meant that the horse just didn't run? You know that many here think the jockey just sits there and steers - LOL.
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