Awesome Again

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Monstrous? That's brave.

It just plays to the fact that right now most horses don't win unless everything goes their way. Look at the races this year, pretty much every big race was won by a horse who was talented enough to win but still needed the perfect trip.

California Chrome got a couple
Bayern got a couple
Tonalist, Moreno, the list goes on.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

It just plays to the fact that right now most horses don't win unless everything goes their way. Look at the races this year, pretty much every big race was won by a horse who was talented enough to win but still needed the perfect trip.

California Chrome got a couple
Bayern got a couple
Tonalist, Moreno, the list goes on.

Our ideas of monstrous are a little different, but that's what makes the world go round. I thought it was solid race with a slightly compromised trip. He never showed his previous explosiveness, I believe if he ran his best race, he'd have won clear even after being wide against that field. Maybe he'll be better in the classic because he will have to be.

[Tom]

Tonalist and SB have shown some courage and some class.
CC shows he is not much of a race horse unless he gets it all his way, dittos Moreno. Look it his while records - he got lucky one time. Tonalist has show the ability to rate, close and lead, and he does it without drugs. That alone show get him HOY.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Tonalist and SB have shown some courage and some class.
CC shows he is not much of a race horse unless he gets it all his way, dittos Moreno. Look it his while records - he got lucky one time. Tonalist has show the ability to rate, close and lead, and he does it without drugs. That alone show get him HOY.

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

I would argue that the West Coast trainers are just better at it, they do it more, there has to be some advantage to the fact that all year long trainers are sending West Coast horses back east to run. Really the only time the east coast trainers do it is for the BC or a random race here or there.

One thing I always watch, is this the first time a horse has been on an airplane? Maybe it sounds crazy but think about it, just about every horse in California has probably been on a plane before it even runs a race, coming from Florida or Kentucky. Sometimes you get east coast horses who will go from NY to California, their first time on a plane and do it just a few days before a very tough race.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I like Tonalist and Wicked Strong (though the latter won't be running), but I have some concerns about the horses traveling west. People think the eastern horses did poorly in CA in recent years because of the synthetic tracks, but there's a record of poor performance by a lot of top horses from the east in CA on dirt also going back before synthetics. For some reason it seems to be tougher to travel east to west and than west to east.

I dont know about that, guys like Pletcher and Clement have had lots of success when shipping............they just dont do it much.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont know about that, guys like Pletcher and Clement have had lots of success when shipping............they just dont do it much.

It makes sense to look at it trainer by trainer. I'd focus on ships from NY to CA for the Breeder's Cup (or maybe another really high level stakes on dirt like that). Excluding the synthetic years, I can recall a lot of short priced eastern based horses throwing in sub par races or outright clunkers (some with my money) in some of the early years. I was there for one of them years ago and they all seemed to bomb. Maybe back then it was a different surface???

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It makes sense to look it trainer by trainer, but I'd focus on ships east to west for the Breeder's Cup (or maybe another really high level stakes on dirt like that). Even excluding the synthetic years, I can recall a lot of short priced eastern based horses throwing in sub par races or outright clunkers (some with my money). I was there for on one them years ago.

The stereotype is that its harder to ship east to west, but maybe there's just such a bigger sample of West to East types that if one falters, we don't think about it as much. An east to West ship might be more rare and thus, we notice a flop more?

I don't know the answers, but i do know that if i see an East to West shipper, i don't want to see him right off the plane, i want to see him in Calif for weeks getting acclimated. If he just ships in for the race, i'm much more critical (in my own mind) of his chances.

[Rex Phinney]

From a pure hours gained/ lost or miles traveled perspective it is absolutely impossible for it to be harder to travel east to west. Anybody saying that is trying to explain away a bad performance.

Unless you think it has to do with the Earth's gravitational pull or something aliens do while planes are in the air there is no reason to think that.

Somewhere the Euro's with Breeders Cup trophies are laughing.

[Cratos]

I believe the negative impact in shipping from east to west versus west to east is track size and track geometry.

In the east you have the “bigger” racetracks which are easier to adapt too than the “smaller” 1 mile western racetracks.

On the contrary, the “smaller” western racetracks take more of an adjustment for the horses shipping in from the east.

Looking at the major eastern racetracks and you have Belmont Park at 1 ½ miles, Saratoga, Gulfstream Park, and Arlington Park (Midwest) at 1 1/8 miles with both Pimilco and Churchill Downs being 1 mile ovals, but with long straightaways for a 1 mile racetrack.

The exceptions in the east are Woodbine and Monmouth; they are laid out much like the western race tracks.

[classhandicapper]

I just checked the recent couple of years. The NY horses did very well in 2012. There were a couple of disappointments in 2013.

By the time the Classic rolls around there will be plenty of horses from NY to observe to see if they are running back to their form or not.

[taxicab]

This was a good race for SB.
He showed a nice bit of heart winning this one.
It was by far his best effort to date.
I think trainer Baffert owes Espinoza one.
There's no way in the world Espinoza would risk losing favor in the Baffert barn by riding the race he did.
Don't forget, Espinoza rides perhaps the shortest priced horse on BC Saturday(American Pharoah) for Baffert.
Victor wasn't going to do anything out of the ordinary on any of BB horses without checking first.
In terms of the ride itself Espinoza didn't break any rules in any way,shape,or form.
People may not like was Victor did......that's too bad.
There's no rule in horse racing that says a jockey has to bend over backwards to be nice during the running of a race.
Just watch Rajiv Maragh/Calvin Borel/Martin Pedroza ride day in and day out......they take every edge they can(including making it real uncomfortable on heavy chalk).
The fact that the Stewards suspended Espinoza is a joke.
Back to SB....
He doesn't appear to care for Santa Anita.
He just doesn't travel the same way over SA as he does the synthetics.
One other thing that could be a cause for concern for SB is the way he's been "pinwheeling" his left front when he's been set down in the stretch.
Two races in a row the pinwheeling has appeared.....not good.
This might explain SB drifting in a bit at the top of the stretch his in his last couple.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by taxicab

This was a good race for SB.
He showed a nice bit of heart winning this one.
It was by far his best effort to date.
I think trainer Baffert owes Espinoza one.
There's no way in the world Espinoza would risk losing favor in the Baffert barn by riding the race he did.
Don't forget, Espinoza rides perhaps the shortest priced horse on BC Saturday(American Pharoah) for Baffert.
Victor wasn't going to do anything out of the ordinary on any of BB horses without checking first.
In terms of the ride itself Espinoza didn't break any rules in any way,shape,or form.
People may not like was Victor did......that's too bad.
There's no rule in horse racing that says a jockey has to bend over backwards to be nice during the running of a race.
Just watch Rajiv Maragh/Calvin Borel/Martin Pedroza ride day in and day out......they take every edge they can(including making it real uncomfortable on heavy chalk).
The fact that the Stewards suspended Espinoza is a joke.
Back to SB....
He doesn't appear to care for Santa Anita.
He just doesn't travel the same way over SA as he does the synthetics.
One other thing that could be a cause for concern for SB is the way he's been "pinwheeling" his left front when he's been set down in the stretch.
Two races in a row the pinwheeling has appeared.....not good.
This might explain SB drifting in a bit at the top of the stretch his in his last couple.

By far his best effort? Huh