Awesome Again

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by onefast99

Bob Baffert trains both Sky Kingdom and Fed Biz, but told the Santa Anita publicity office he had nothing to do with the tactics employed by Espinoza.

"These guys are fierce competitors," Baffert said, alluding to Espinoza, Smith, and others in the jockey colony. "I see it happen to my horses when you have a good one. I didn't tell Victor to do that. He stayed away from my other horse, Fed Biz…Game On Dude, that's why I retired him, because he was starting to get mugged, every race. I didn't cry about it. I just retired him."

"I don't know exactly what Victor was doing," Smith said Sunday. "My horse overcame it and showed a lot of fight. He finished the race strong and he had to work for it after being taken out (wide).

Really Bob?

I'm sure the CHRB knows whether or not Baffert has ever given a jock instructions and how often he does it. If he's the type of trainer who says "good luck" and gives them a leg up, than what he says is believeable. If he's a control freak who gives instructions every race, than we have a different issue altogether.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

True, but that wide on the first turn?

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

I have rarely seen horses in high level races go 5 wide on a fast pace on both turns win...........I have seen it in maiden races where the horse is just that much superior but not in a race like this.'

The best argument to him losing next month is that this was a very taxing race, on ability he just seems better than the rest of the horses running.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Several yes. They weren't taken out as far as Shared Belief, but I am agreeing that he had the roughest trip of the lot.

His trip wasn't massively tougher than theirs. It was massively tougher than we usually see a horse capable of overcoming. But given other horses were overcoming their ground loss without much impact on their figures or finish relative to expectations, maybe it wasn't the typical day and they were all impacted less than usual because those paths were a tad better. I'm not saying he had a easy trip. He had a terrible trip. It's a question of degree.

Watch the replays

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.

Rags to Riches in a race at Santa Anita.It May have been 2 or 3 race's before her Belmont win.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Rags to Riches in a race at Santa Anita.It May have been 2 or 3 race's before her Belmont win.

This wasnt the race you are talking about, but its R-TO-Rs maiden win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlBmhIdCeDY

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I love the idea you're proposing in the middle of the track wasn't such a terrible place to be....but i gotta say, bias or not, i've seen tens of thousands of races and replays at all tracks in the country and i don't ever remember a horse getting hung that wide on both turns and still winning....much less winning a top level race. It just doesn't happen, bias or not.

Watch Big Brown in the Ky Derby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g

He was 4 wide and 4 wide from the 20 post and then drew off by 5 lengths. Maybe not quite as extreme a trip, but he earned a monstrous figure on TG/Sheets and it wasn't even close finish. He drew off. That was a day I thought the outside paths were better without the rail being "dead". He didn't run back to the "ground loaded figure" and of course they all claimed he bounced. But that kind of thing happens at CD and a few other tracks more often than people think. Granted, it's way rarer at SA.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I have rarely seen horses in high level races go 5 wide on a fast pace on both turns win...........I have seen it in maiden races where the horse is just that much superior but not in a race like this.'

The best argument to him losing next month is that this was a very taxing race, on ability he just seems better than the rest of the horses running.

I agree that it is not common and that the race was taxing.

My current thinking is that I am not going to concede the race to him or pass because he's going to be too short a price to take. I plan on using him on top, but only IF I can find really good value underneath him in exotics. Since I suspect his performance was not quite as good as everyone thinks, I will also try to beat him on some tickets with those same horses.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Watch Big Brown in the Ky Derby.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g

He was 4 wide and 4 wide from the 20 post and then drew off by 5 lengths. Maybe not quite as extreme a trip, but he earned a monstrous figure on TG/Sheets and it wasn't even close finish. He drew off. That was a day I thought the outside paths were better without the rail being "dead". He didn't run back to the "ground loaded figure" and of course they all claimed he bounced. But that kind of thing happens at CD and a few other tracks more often than people think. Granted, it's way rarer at SA.

For some reason, SB's wide/wide was different than BB's and any others, it's hard to explain, but it seems like the wideness of SB was more extreme just because he seemed to be working hard to keep up to that spot. BB seemed to be rolling "in hand" and not really working all that hard, SB seemed to be working hard if that makes sense.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

This wasnt the race you are talking about, but its R-TO-Rs maiden win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlBmhIdCeDY

I believe it was the Las Virgenes. If i remember correctly she was 5 wide on both turns. I bet against her and she still beat me.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

I believe it was the Las Virgenes. If i remember correctly she was 5 wide on both turns. I bet against her and she still beat me.

yes it was. Tried to find video of that was but wasn't able to.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

For some reason, SB's wide/wide was different than BB's and any others, it's hard to explain, but it seems like the wideness of SB was more extreme just because he seemed to be working hard to keep up to that spot. BB seemed to be rolling "in hand" and not really working all that hard, SB seemed to be working hard if that makes sense.

It does make sense and I agree it matters.

When I post these kinds of thoughts the conversations often seem to veer off towards some extreme black or white conclusion that can miss the point of what I am saying .

It's not a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. the trip wasn't that bad.

It's a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. it was a very tough trip.

Beyer gave him a 101 figure.

For discussion's sake let's add 13 points for ground loss and another 5-10 for the fact that he was chasing a lively pace, working hard, and getting harassed while wide. That would make him a 119-124 horse.

Suppose I said I think he's actually more of a 110-115 horse at this stage.

I'm acknowledging the tough trip and his quality, but suggesting he's not quite a super horse yet.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It does make sense and I agree it matters.

When I post these kinds of thoughts the conversations often seem to veer off towards some extreme black or white conclusion that can miss the point of what I am saying .

It's not a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. the trip wasn't that bad.

It's a choice between the trip was a nightmare from hell vs. it was a very tough trip.

Beyer gave him a 101 figure.

For discussion's sake let's add 13 points for ground loss and another 5-10 for the fact that he was chasing a lively pace, working hard, and getting harassed while wide. That would make him a 119-124 horse.

Suppose I said I think he's actually more of a 110-115 horse at this stage.

I'm acknowledging the tough trip and his quality, but suggesting he's not quite a super horse yet.

I think thats fair.

I think he is about 30-35% to win, maybe slightly higher.....without seeing the field and posts of course. If he is 5/2 that would seem like a good bet, and he wont be, so I will look somewhere else.

No horse is 100% to win, so its very easy to say I dont like a horse........it really should be in context to price.

If SB was 20/1 how many here would really like him to win that race!

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

I agree with you. I like Shared Belief but I see something like Candy Boy or Tapiture winning, maybe a Euro invader, Majestic Harbor picking up the pieces. It will be the last thing that any of us expect.

There might be a “sleeper” out there for the BC Classic, but at this time I am taking Shared Belief and Tonalist.

Therefore how good was Shared Belief performance in the Awesome Again Stakes?

From the naked eye it might not be obvious, but using Trakus data the performance was monstrous to say the least.

This horse started approximately 6 path widths from the rail and crossed the line about 4 ½ path widths from the rail.

However what is significant to understand is that if the data is normalized for of all the horses in the race, he would have a time nearly 1 second faster than the second fastest time while running 15 feet further.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Cratos

There might be a “sleeper” out there for the BC Classic, but at this time I am taking Shared Belief and Tonalist.

Therefore how good was Shared Belief performance in the Awesome Again Stakes?

From the naked eye it might not be obvious, but using Trakus data the performance was monstrous to say the least.

This horse started approximately 6 path widths from the rail and crossed the line about 4 ½ path widths from the rail.

However what is significant to understand is that if the data is normalized for of all the horses in the race, he would have a time nearly 1 second faster than the second fastest time while running 15 feet further.

Monstrous? That's brave.