View Poll Results: Jockey Club Gold Cup
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Micromanage
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3 |
4.55% |
Last Gunfighter
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1 |
1.52% |
Wicked Strong
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12 |
18.18% |
Zivo
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13 |
19.70% |
Prayer for Relief
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6 |
9.09% |
Long River
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1 |
1.52% |
Speak Logistics
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0 |
0% |
Tonalist
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15 |
22.73% |
Stephanoatsee
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4 |
6.06% |
V.E. Day
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5 |
7.58% |
Moreno
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6 |
9.09% |
Big Cazanova
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0 |
0% |
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09-26-2014, 11:20 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
And the 3rd portion of the pace analysis (minus form determinations):
Running styles, early to late:
11 E8
-12 E/P4
------7 P0
-------8 P0
-------5 P0
--------6 P0
------------------2 P0
-----------------------4 S0
------------------------3 S0
-------------------------10 S0
----------------------------------------9 S0
----------------------------------------1 S0
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I think i like this visual. Nice concept.
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09-26-2014, 11:21 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grits
Fine work, Nick. Thank you. A great race card with this one, the centerpiece.
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Yes, good work, Nick.
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09-26-2014, 11:25 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: On The Bay
Posts: 9,857
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I remember a October Saturday about 5-6 years ago when a bunch of us met at belmont Park for the JCGC and we had a blast. If my memory serves me well, there were gatetowire, Nijinski, OTMal, Proximity, JustRalph, PA, Grits, trackcollector, Miesque and a few others who I cannot recall.
Maybe next year, These gatherings are always a blast.
__________________
I wouldn't say I drink too much but my mother did tell me that my first words were" when does happy hour start"?
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09-26-2014, 11:27 PM
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#34
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,619
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what a race......shit.....90% of these horses could win.
How about the oldest horse in the race
He's wound up tighter than a golf ball...............
Prayer for Relief?
Anybody? I think he might be too old to win but Johnny V is the best out there now. And if it falls apart? I like his chances with a smart rider
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09-27-2014, 12:15 AM
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#35
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
what a race......shit.....90% of these horses could win.
How about the oldest horse in the race
He's wound up tighter than a golf ball...............
Prayer for Relief?
Anybody? I think he might be too old to win but Johnny V is the best out there now. And if it falls apart? I like his chances with a smart rider
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It seems every time PFR pairs his top, he regresses. However, after his last race (paired top), I see two rather intense works which may indicate he could move forward again..........you might have something here at big $$$ Ralph.
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09-27-2014, 01:11 AM
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#36
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
It seems every time PFR pairs his top, he regresses. However, after his last race (paired top), I see two rather intense works which may indicate he could move forward again..........you might have something here at big $$$ Ralph.
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What is a "paired top"? Top speed rating last 2? Last equals his top? If so, I don't have it that way, his last isn't even his top, and his 2nd back is even lower.
He definitely has room to move up off his last, and his last work was pretty dang good, it appears.
Last edited by raybo; 09-27-2014 at 01:13 AM.
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09-27-2014, 02:05 AM
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#37
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Superfecta ticket:
Win -- 3 4
Place - 3 4 7 8
Show - 3 4 7 8 5
4th ---- 3 4 7 8 5 10 1
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Cant really take this seriously with the 7 in the 2 spot.
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09-27-2014, 02:34 AM
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#38
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
Cant really take this seriously with the 7 in the 2 spot.
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Not asking you to. That's your decision, but stranger things have happened haven't they? if there is a pace meltdown, anything can happen and any horse other than the ones that meltdown can finish well.
Just some data I have, don't use it, won't bother me at all. As a matter of fact, that would be just fine by me.
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09-27-2014, 03:29 AM
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#39
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Not asking you to. That's your decision, but stranger things have happened haven't they? if there is a pace meltdown, anything can happen and any horse other than the ones that meltdown can finish well.
Just some data I have, don't use it, won't bother me at all. As a matter of fact, that would be just fine by me.
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What data do you have that tells you that horse has a shot to run 2nd? He is literally impossible on paper. In what world does that horse even belong in this race?? If the 11 and 12 kill each other and it does melt down there are seven other horses who are more likely then him to run 2nd.
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09-27-2014, 03:49 AM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
What data do you have that tells you that horse has a shot to run 2nd? He is literally impossible on paper. In what world does that horse even belong in this race?? If the 11 and 12 kill each other and it does melt down there are seven other horses who are more likely then him to run 2nd.
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"Makes no sense in paper" famous last words LOL
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09-27-2014, 06:51 AM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Am I missing something?
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
Suspected hot pace takes out both Moreno and Big Cazanova. Speak Logistics has the top early velocities (in route dirt races only, albeit it at generally shorter routes), so wouldn't be a bit surprised if he adds even more pace pressure to the other two.
The "come from behind" velocities, in ranked order:
Zivo (at 5/1-6/1 he would be my bet)
Wicked Strong
V. E. Day
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Raybo...how did you deduce that Speak Logistics has the top early velocities in this race? Was this info extracted from the past performances...or was it garnered through some function of your automated handicapping method?
I am not being facetious here; I respect you as a pace handicapper...and I am honestly wondering if I am missing something in this horse's record.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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09-27-2014, 07:58 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Raybo...how did you deduce that Speak Logistics has the top early velocities in this race? Was this info extracted from the past performances...or was it garnered through some function of your automated handicapping method?
I am not being facetious here; I respect you as a pace handicapper...and I am honestly wondering if I am missing something in this horse's record.
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I won't speak for raybo. He may be referencing the 11/3/12 SA (BC Juv), 4/6/13 CRC, 9/2/13 PRX, 9/21/13 PRX and 11/10/13 GP races.
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09-27-2014, 08:45 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: On The Bay
Posts: 9,857
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Prayer For relief
Nice balance between his early pace and late pace #s
__________________
I wouldn't say I drink too much but my mother did tell me that my first words were" when does happy hour start"?
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09-27-2014, 09:36 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CurtisontheBay
I remember a October Saturday about 5-6 years ago when a bunch of us met at belmont Park for the JCGC and we had a blast. If my memory serves me well, there were gatetowire, Nijinski, OTMal, Proximity, JustRalph, PA, Grits, trackcollector, Miesque and a few others who I cannot recall.
Maybe next year, These gatherings are always a blast.
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Cjd, I just woke up.. and realized. I'm not in NY. I'm not at Belmont for JCGC. I should have driven up. Now I'm disgusted and depressed, all at the same time. One of the best days of the year and I'm looking at TVG. What a bitch!
That was a fun, a great day of racing. It was a laid back day. We all sat together handicapping, watching races, and having a few drinks. You hit a couple of triples.
In the big race today, with the condensed figures, I'm using Zivo, Wicked Strong and Last Gunfighter. LG has the highest back figure in the field, which always appeals to me. I'll use these three.
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09-27-2014, 11:22 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: On The Bay
Posts: 9,857
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Yeah Grits but at least you didn't have to drive through that Baltimore-Washington corridor that you soooo much enjoy.
__________________
I wouldn't say I drink too much but my mother did tell me that my first words were" when does happy hour start"?
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