Jockey Club Gold Cup

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Tonalist loves this track and he gets my vote

Everyone keeps saying he loves the track. I have seen it here, on twitter, DT, and HH. That is just a silly statement IMO. One of his races at Belmont was over a sloppy track. I think its more fair to say Tonalist loves a sloppy track. His other win was going the odd distance of 12f. He was all out that day to beat a 30-1 shot. That Belmont has been a pretty shitty race. 2nd place finisher has not run back. 3rd place finisher is 0/2 since. Its just a list of horse who have either not run back at all or have not won. Except for one. Wicked Strong..... As for Wicked Strong.... He is just better. He beat Tonalist head to head twice this summer. Why is that going to change Saturday? The only reason I see people giving is because Tonalist loves the track, I think that is just so silly. If I had to make a case for Tonalist it would be that his trainer is on fire right now.

[Redboard]

Wicked Strong reminds me of Hard Spun, he’ll give you everything he’s got, every race, but he doesn’t have that “quick turn of foot,” as they say – he’s more of a plodder.
Tonalist’s excuse in the Travers is that he burnt himself out going after Bayern and yet he did hold on for third, an incredible feat(Bayern finished last). As far as the Jim Dandy, Jerkins admitted he was slow coming back off of a break and for him, he had bigger fish to fry – no way he was going to ruin the horse trying to win a prep race. That, along with the fact that the JCGC is an extra furlong, which suits him better distance wise.
I agree with you though, saying he loves the track is silly. He's just a better horse.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

Everyone keeps saying he loves the track. I have seen it here, on twitter, DT, and HH. That is just a silly statement IMO. One of his races at Belmont was over a sloppy track. I think its more fair to say Tonalist loves a sloppy track. His other win was going the odd distance of 12f. He was all out that day to beat a 30-1 shot. That Belmont has been a pretty shitty race. 2nd place finisher has not run back. 3rd place finisher is 0/2 since. Its just a list of horse who have either not run back at all or have not won. Except for one. Wicked Strong..... As for Wicked Strong.... He is just better. He beat Tonalist head to head twice this summer. Why is that going to change Saturday? The only reason I see people giving is because Tonalist loves the track, I think that is just so silly. If I had to make a case for Tonalist it would be that his trainer is on fire right now.

To each his own; that is why it is called "pari-mutuel wagering."

[QTwithTQ]

Interesting stuff from Nick Tammaro on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary with regards to the pace scenario in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and how it should affect the horses in the race -

Pace is key in Jockey Club Gold Cup showdown pitting 3YOs against elders

As for my thoughts on the race - I tried to land on a horse that will be within four lengths of the lead throughout, but I can see almost every one of them hanging down the stretch. Therefore, I'll be keying Zivo. Could do worse than a horse that likes to win. Good luck.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by QTwithTQ

Interesting stuff from Nick Tammaro on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary with regards to the pace scenario in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and how it should affect the horses in the race -

Pace is key in Jockey Club Gold Cup showdown pitting 3YOs against elders

As for my thoughts on the race - I tried to land on a horse that will be within four lengths of the lead throughout, but I can see almost every one of them hanging down the stretch. Therefore, I'll be keying Zivo. Could do worse than a horse that likes to win. Good luck.

Nice Article.

[letswastemoney]

If I have to think hard about a race, I probably don't have a good feeling for it, and the JCGC is a race that seems to require a lot of thinking.

If I had to bet, then Wicked Strong is my top choice, followed by Tonalist or Zivo. But, I'll pass.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If I have to think hard about a race, I probably don't have a good feeling for it, and the JCGC is a race that seems to require a lot of thinking.

If I had to bet, then Wicked Strong is my top choice, followed by Tonalist or Zivo. But, I'll pass.

It looks to be an interesting race as far as handicapping.

[raybo]

Suspected hot pace takes out both Moreno and Big Cazanova. Speak Logistics has the top early velocities (in route dirt races only, albeit it at generally shorter routes), so wouldn't be a bit surprised if he adds even more pace pressure to the other two.

The "come from behind" velocities, in ranked order:

Zivo (at 5/1-6/1 he would be my bet)
Wicked Strong
V. E. Day

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by QTwithTQ

Interesting stuff from Nick Tammaro on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary with regards to the pace scenario in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and how it should affect the horses in the race -

Pace is key in Jockey Club Gold Cup showdown pitting 3YOs against elders

As for my thoughts on the race - I tried to land on a horse that will be within four lengths of the lead throughout, but I can see almost every one of them hanging down the stretch. Therefore, I'll be keying Zivo. Could do worse than a horse that likes to win. Good luck.

Thanks for the shoutout and glad you enjoyed the article. This is a very fun renewal of a race that is generally lacking in terms of wagering appeal. Best of luck!

[Grits]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Thanks for the shoutout and glad you enjoyed the article. This is a very fun renewal of a race that is generally lacking in terms of wagering appeal. Best of luck!

Fine work, Nick. Thank you. A great race card with this one, the centerpiece.

[ArlJim78]

I'm feeling a big one coming for Zivo. He'll be my choice.

[raybo]

PROJECTED EARLY RUNNING POSITIONS
Ranked Horses 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
--------start -----11 12 6 8 5
---------1st -----11 12 8 6 5
---------2nd -----12 11 8 6 5

[raybo]

Another look at it. How fast can they run, if they want to?

RANKED FRACTIONAL SEGMENT VELOCITIES
----- 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th (ranking)
FR1 -7 ---3----9---8---11 (start to 1st call)
FR2 -3 ---4----8---1---7 (1st call to 2nd call)
FR3 -3 ---4---10---1---2 (2nd call to finish)

[raybo]

And the 3rd portion of the pace analysis (minus form determinations):

Running styles, early to late:

11 E8
-12 E/P4
------7 P0
-------8 P0
-------5 P0
--------6 P0
------------------2 P0
-----------------------4 S0
------------------------3 S0
-------------------------10 S0
----------------------------------------9 S0
----------------------------------------1 S0

[raybo]

Superfecta ticket:

Win -- 3 4
Place - 3 4 7 8
Show - 3 4 7 8 5
4th ---- 3 4 7 8 5 10 1