2014 BC Classic picture

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

So you think the bigger the weight carried, the better the horse?

I think we will never know how good these horses are, because they are never asked to carry weight. Or to answer your question another way; yes.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by mostpost

California Chrome did not just get hot at the right time. He won six races in a row against the best three year olds in training. The only thing his last two races proved is that any horse can lose sometime.

I am happy that Shared Belief has an understanding of how to avoid giving offense and of how to keep or win goodwill. (The only definition of tactful in my dictionary.) I don't know how that is going to help him on the racetrack.

I will not argue the fact that Shared Belief has been a freak. Maybe California Chrome is freaker.

If Shared Belief stays healthy, California Chrome doesn't win 6 races in a row. It's as simple as that.

California Chrome finished off the board (6th & 6th) the 2 races before his streak and has now finished 4th & 6th the 2 races after his streak, so yes he hit a peak at the right time.

Horses like Bayern, Tapiture maybe even Wicked Strong and Candy Boy have gotten better since the spring and California Chrome frankly has gone backwards.

I'm not trying to knock hm, just throwing a little bit of reality out there.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by mostpost

I think we will never know how good these horses are, because they are never asked to carry weight. Or to answer your question another way; yes.

I grew up on racing in the UK/IRL where top weights
are asked to carry as much as 140 lbs in handicaps.
I'm not sure that it proves very much,
as long as differentials are significant from top to bottom.

Should we be more concerned that horses are capable
of giving weight to opponents, or that they can run fast times
and high speed figures while carrying large burdens?

Setting higher weights is easy when it comes to riders.
I'm not sure that it's in the horses' best interest, though,
especially with the US focus on speed and quick pace.

126 lbs is probably a decent maximum for 3yo colts,
130-132 for older.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

What a gamer he is:

Damn....the font is really tiny. Can you please find a way to enlarge?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Damn....the font is really tiny. Can you please find a way to enlarge?

Yeah, I know.
Apologies - I'm not having much luck trying to blow it up.

[Appy]

You might try copying that file with your snipping tool, save and post that. It includes a built in magnifier.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

He just beat older horses at 10F in a $1,000,000 G1.

He's got the speed when he needs it, and patience when he doesn't. He's got the all time leader in BC wins for a jockey, and he is on pace to have raced only 5 races this year.

He absolutely is going to win the Classic.

A closer look at all of SB races.
Breaks his Maiden sprinting @ GGF.....on synthetic.
Beat the world beater Kobe's Boy and 3 others in the Holly. Prevue......on synthetic.
Won the Cash Call Fut.(the field has returned to go 4 for 39).....on synthetic.
Wins an Allow. @ GGF against 4 others(yeah,that was a real strong race) ......on synthetic.
Wins on dirt in the Los Al. Derby.....none of the horses that SB beat have come back to win yet.
Wins the Pacific Classic from off the pace as Game On Dude and some rabbit from South America go 22.2/45.3/110.1 in a 10 furlong race to set it up for SB(the very meaning of a counterfeit race).
Plus, he has to win the Classic over a dirt track Hollendorfer can't train him over because SB can't hold up on it.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by taxicab

A closer look at all of SB races.
Breaks his Maiden sprinting @ GGF.....on synthetic.
Beat the world beater Kobe's Boy and 3 others in the Holly. Prevue......on synthetic.
Won the Cash Call Fut.(the field has returned to go 4 for 39).....on synthetic.
Wins an Allow. @ GGF against 4 others(yeah,that was a real strong race) ......on synthetic.
Wins on dirt in the Los Al. Derby.....none of the horses that SB beat have come back to win yet.
Wins the Pacific Classic from off the pace as Game On Dude and some rabbit from South America go 22.2/45.3/110.1 in a 10 furlong race to set it up for SB(the very meaning of a counterfeit race).
Plus, he has to win the Classic over a dirt track Hollendorfer can't train him over because SB can't hold up on it.

Synthetic to dirt training angle is no problem. In fact it might even be beneficial.

Enlighten us on all the massive destruction that this years Preakness field has done.

I'm standing right up and saying that Shared Belief is going to win the Classic, that he will be 8-0 at that point. If you're telling me I'm wrong fine, all I ask is you stuff that win pool with money.

You're making some play on a synthetic is no good angle but the horse has won 4 of 6 races at Golden Gate and Hollywood, maybe the two fairest synthetic tracks around.

He is the 2YO champ and he is the best 3YO too, his feet just kept him from proving it.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

As a documented California Chrome "hater", I was dismayed at his 6th place finish on Saturday, as I think it inflates his odds for the Classic. Had he hit the board, I think he would have taken a lot of action in the Classic, but now I can only hope that his workouts leading up to the race are enough to attract more play.

5-2?

For the record, I don't hate the horse so much as I'm just playing the percentages. Not very many "hard used" Triple Crown horses come back for a good fall campaign......

I've been a Shared Belief fan since last fall when I placed a futures wager on him in Derby Pool 1. But his bad feet and hype are cutting into his value as well, though he did romp rather easily in the PC.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd be pretty surprised if all you got on BC Classic day on CC was 5-2...I think he goes off a bit higher than that...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think Zenyatta was underrated by a lot of people who hated synthetic tracks, but I think the criticism of her for her soft campaigns is totally justified. Certainly once she won the Classic and we knew what we were dealing with, she should have been running in tougher races.

The fact that we had the greatest female American racehorse in history (Zenyatta) and another all time great female (Rachel Alexandra) running at the same time and they never met because their respective owners repeatedly ducked races tells you much of what you need to know about why horse racing has so much trouble attracting casual fans. 50 years ago those two would have met multiple times.

That the connections of Zenyatta deserve some criticism is apparent by the fact that some very bright and good handicappers still can't tell she's on the very very very short list of the greatest mares of all time.

There are reasons for that that go into understanding the flawed synthetic speed figures of the time, shrinking Beyer figures for all horses, smaller average winning margins on synthetic etc...

But beyond that apparently a win over the previous year's Eclipse award winning mare on dirt, a win in a strong Distaff, a Breeders Cup Classic, a strong 2nd in a Breeder's Cup Classic on dirt, overcoming 1 or 2 ridiculously slow paces against solid opposition in a Grade 1 race against fillies, and carrying weight was not enough. She needed a Pacific Classic or something else like that too once the other solid fillies and mares started shipping out of CA to avoid her.

[GatetoWire]

I screwed up the name of the Churchill Stake that Cigar Street is running in.
It's not the Frontrunner it's called the Homecoming Stakes

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by taxicab

A closer look at all of SB races.
Breaks his Maiden sprinting @ GGF.....on synthetic.
Beat the world beater Kobe's Boy and 3 others in the Holly. Prevue......on synthetic.
Won the Cash Call Fut.(the field has returned to go 4 for 39).....on synthetic.
Wins an Allow. @ GGF against 4 others(yeah,that was a real strong race) ......on synthetic.
Wins on dirt in the Los Al. Derby.....none of the horses that SB beat have come back to win yet.
Wins the Pacific Classic from off the pace as Game On Dude and some rabbit from South America go 22.2/45.3/110.1 in a 10 furlong race to set it up for SB(the very meaning of a counterfeit race).
Plus, he has to win the Classic over a dirt track Hollendorfer can't train him over because SB can't hold up on it.

You could do this with a lot of horses early in their career.

So is you take the horse is a fraud, paper tiger?

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by menifee

... Shared Belief might be even money if he romps in the Awesome Again.

You could be right, if SB wins for fun this Saturday. Here is a list of the lowest odds in the classic this century.

2008 Curlin 0.9
2010 Zenyatta 1.0
2006 Bernardini 1.1
2012 Game on Dude 1.3
2013 Game on Dude 1.7


They all lost, BTW.

Not sure who was the lowest odds in the classic of all time. Anyone?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Redboard

You could be right, if SB wins for fun this Saturday. Here is a list of the lowest odds in the classic this century.

2008 Curlin 0.9
2010 Zenyatta 1.0
2006 Bernardini 1.1
2012 Game on Dude 1.3
2013 Game on Dude 1.7


They all lost, BTW.

Not sure who was the lowest odds in the classic of all time. Anyone?

Cigar was 4 to 5 and won. I remember that one. (Ghostzapper was a pretty short price and won too, but I don't remember how short. And A.P. Indy may have been a short price as well.)

EDIT: Ghostzapper was 5 to 2 and A.P. Indy was 2 to 1. So Cigar was the shortest priced winner.