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09-23-2014, 01:19 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Redboard
If Moreno and Bayern both show up for the classic, the only question will be who will be last and who will be next to the last. One has got to opt for the dirt mile, and that probably will be Moreno who was 10th (of 11) in last year’s Classic after battling with god on the front end. So with Bayern as the lone speed, unless a rabbit is thrown into the fray which doesn’t seem to happen anymore, it’s going to come down to whether Shared Belief wants to challenge him- when you think about it, he’s the only one in the field who can, or should. And if that happens, will he bring himself down too?
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This would be my concern if I was in their camp, use your horse too early and it may cost you late.
Lets see how he runs at SA and its new surface first.
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09-23-2014, 01:54 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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[QUOTE=Redboard]This past weekend makes it a little clearer, or muddied the waters, depending on how you see it. The story line goes from a “showdown between Shared Belief and California Chrome” to “who’s going to go after Bayern.” The obvious candidate is Moreno, although, there’s a good chance that one will opt for the BC mile. We know that Tonalist won't.
I’ve listed these from what I believe to me most favorite to least favorite, with the results of their last race.
Shared Belief – 1st Pacific Classic
Bayern – 1st PA Derby
Itsmyluckday – 1st Woodward
California Chrome – 6th in PA Derby
Wicked Strong – 2nd Travers
Tonalist – 3rd Travers
Moreno – 2nd Woodward
V.E. Day – 1st Travers
Toast of New York – 2nd Pacific Classic
Majestic Harbor – 6th Pacific Classic
Tapiture – 2nd PA Derby
Candy Boy– 3rd PA Derby
Prayer For Relief – 3rd Woodward
Zivo – 4th Woodward
The Awesome Again stakes, this weekend, should make things even clearer, or muddy everything more. God forbid if Shared Belief comes up small.
Thoughts?
Who did I leave out?
Who should be higher/lower?[/QUOTE]
Your list is probably how most books have the futures for the Classic.
Thoughts:All things considered,Shared Belief is the least battle tested of any horse on your list.....He's not winning the Classic.
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09-23-2014, 01:07 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by taxicab
Your list is probably how most books have the futures for the Classic. Thoughts:All things considered,Shared Belief is the least battle tested of any horse on your list.....He's not winning the Classic.
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He just beat older horses at 10F in a $1,000,000 G1.
He's got the speed when he needs it, and patience when he doesn't. He's got the all time leader in BC wins for a jockey, and he is on pace to have raced only 5 races this year.
He absolutely is going to win the Classic.
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09-23-2014, 01:11 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Shared Belief worked today
Looks like he's healthy
Quote:
Jim Rome retweeted
Ricky Gonzalez @RickyGonzalez10 43m
Worked @SharedBelief today 4f in 47.3 all ready for the awesome again at @santaanitapark @jimrome
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__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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09-23-2014, 01:39 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Latest on Wise Dan
Wise Dan's work this morning:
[YT="Wise Dan work 9-23-14"]pn8gBNNSdfE&feature=youtu.be[/YT]
Next outing will be the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland on Oct 4th.
Trainer Charles LoPresti has not ruled out taking a shot
at the BC Classic. We'll see after Keeneland.
http://horseracing.bloginky.com/2014...shadwell-mile/
Quote:
Wise Dan won the 2012 edition of the Shadwell Turf Mile en route to earning the first of his back-to-back victories in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. A third title defense in the Mile has been the goal for the chestnut gelding this season. However, with the handicap division falling apart this year due to the retirements of defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man as well as fellow multiple Grade I winners Palace Malice, Game On Dude and Will Take Charge, there will certainly been a groundswell of pundits hoping to see Wise Dan take a swing at this year’s $5 million Classic at Santa Anita Park.
Though his form on turf has earned him six Eclipse Awards, Wise Dan’s first career Grade I score did come on the dirt when he captured the 2011 Grade I Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs.
“All I can tell you is I take it one race at a time,” LoPresti said when asked if he was entertaining any thoughts of a Classic run. “But I can tell you this, this horse is training better on the dirt than I’ve ever seen him. He did that at Saratoga, and all of his major workouts have been on dirt this year. But we haven’t got that far.
“I want to get through this race on October 4 and then we’ll have a better idea after that.”
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__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
Last edited by horses4courses; 09-23-2014 at 01:41 PM.
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09-23-2014, 03:44 PM
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#51
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
Wise Dan's work this morning:
[YT="Wise Dan work 9-23-14"]pn8gBNNSdfE&feature=youtu.be[/YT]
Next outing will be the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland on Oct 4th.
Trainer Charles LoPresti has not ruled out taking a shot
at the BC Classic. We'll see after Keeneland.
http://horseracing.bloginky.com/2014...shadwell-mile/ |
It would certainly create some much-needed buzz, but if the BCC is really on the table, I don't understand why he didn't opt for the Awesome Again stakes. If he bombed in that, he could always go back to the BC Turf mile.
The Shadwell Mile makes no sense.
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09-23-2014, 04:12 PM
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#52
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by menifee
Sad to see no Palace Malice, MMM, Game on Dude or Will Take Charge. Lea has gone missing. Shared Belief might be even money if he romps in the Awesome Again.
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Pretty sad field for the Classic all around.
What horse in here can anybody trust at 10Fs? Can't believe some foreign horses aren't taking a shot at this field even if it is at Santa Anita's speed favoring oval. Declaration of War switches to the proper lead and he likely wins it last year.
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09-23-2014, 04:12 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 461
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Cigar Street is prepping in the Frontrunner at Churchill.
If he runs big I could see them going in the Classic or the Dirt Mile.
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09-23-2014, 04:14 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Redboard
It would certainly create some much-needed buzz, but if the BCC is really on the table, I don't understand why he didn't opt for the Awesome Again stakes. If he bombed in that, he could always go back to the BC Turf mile.
The Shadwell Mile makes no sense.
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I agree with you.
Seems like they will stay within their comfort zone.
If he runs big at Keeneland, which he should,
he will be odds-on for the BC Mile,
regardless of who ships from Europe.
No Kingman helps his chances a lot.
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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09-23-2014, 05:42 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,178
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Redboard
It would certainly create some much-needed buzz, but if the BCC is really on the table, I don't understand why he didn't opt for the Awesome Again stakes. If he bombed in that, he could always go back to the BC Turf mile.
The Shadwell Mile makes no sense.
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The awesome again means shared belief and a 250k pot. The shadwell means the usual suspects and a 1M pot. I would do what lopresti is doing.
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09-23-2014, 05:45 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Wise Dan
What a gamer he is:
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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09-23-2014, 06:43 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
What a gamer he is:
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Imagine going 22 for 30 in major stakes competition and never carrying more than 124 pounds.
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09-23-2014, 07:05 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Imagine going 22 for 30 in major stakes competition and never carrying more than 124 pounds.
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So you think the bigger the weight carried, the better the horse?
__________________
Want to know what's wrong with this country?
Here it is, in a nutshell: Millions of people are
pinning their hopes on a man who has every
chance of returning to the WH, assuming that
he can manage to stay out of prison. Think about it.
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09-23-2014, 07:10 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: NJ/MD
Posts: 1,185
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Redboard
If Moreno and Bayern both show up for the classic, the only question will be who will be last and who will be next to the last. One has got to opt for the dirt mile, and that probably will be Moreno who was 10th (of 11) in last year’s Classic after battling with god on the front end. So with Bayern as the lone speed, unless a rabbit is thrown into the fray which doesn’t seem to happen anymore, it’s going to come down to whether Shared Belief wants to challenge him- when you think about it, he’s the only one in the field who can, or should. And if that happens, will he bring himself down too?
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Well, it's not surprising he was done after dueling with God on the lead. I'm sure He'd be pretty tough to beat.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Imagine going 22 for 30 in major stakes competition and never carrying more than 124 pounds.
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Come on. Do you think he wouldn't have been as good if he was carrying, what, 2-3 more pounds per race? Does that matter at all?
__________________
I'm on twitter: @theyreoff
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09-23-2014, 09:22 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
As for your top two, California Chrome is a good horse who simply got hot at the right time, his early career and his last two races prove it. Shared Belief on the other hand has been a freak from day 1. He is more tactful than Chrome and his jockey will run circles around Espinoza. His feet are the only thing that will ever get him beat.
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California Chrome did not just get hot at the right time. He won six races in a row against the best three year olds in training. The only thing his last two races proved is that any horse can lose sometime.
I am happy that Shared Belief has an understanding of how to avoid giving offense and of how to keep or win goodwill. (The only definition of tactful in my dictionary.) I don't know how that is going to help him on the racetrack.
I will not argue the fact that Shared Belief has been a freak. Maybe California Chrome is freaker.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
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