PA Derby and Cotillion

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by tophatmert

Wasn't the rail the place to be last year on Penn derby day.

It was very much the place to be.

[zico20]

No way Candy Boy goes off 12-1. Him and Tapiture were the same odds in the WV derby and were a nose apart. Who the hell is Protonico. Never heard of him.

[Racey]

from Todd Pletcher barn won the prep for this a few weeks ago

[Racey]

Castellano into ride......hmmmm

[Thebigguy]

Here are my early thoughts on the graded stakes races.

I’m lost in the Gallant Bob. 4 or 5 can win IMO. I need to look at the race more and watch a few more replays.
The Cotillion. Another tough one for me. I want to be against Untapable, but she has multiple races that crush everyone else’s best. I think it is fair to argue that she has peaked already though and she could be tailing off a little bit. Ill use her. One ticket will just be singled/pressed to her, I just can’t totally toss her. That’s more because I don’t believe she is facing much then it is that I am confident in her. If Hushion had sent Artemis Argotera to this spot, I might have singled her…… Anyway Ill back up with Jojo Warrior and House Rules. They are both well connected horses who I believe are moving forward. Price will be fair on both of them. I am totally against Sweet Reason and Stopchargingmaria. Sweet Reason is a 7f-8f one turn horse. There is nothing wrong with that. I can even understand why they are taking a shot in here. If she were to win this she would probably jump ahead of Untapable for the 3yr old filly eclipse award. I just don’t see it and if she wins I lose. Its one thing for her to win a 2 turn race at Aqueduct in the spring its another thing to beat multiple G1 winners going 2 turns in this spot. Stopchargingmaria IMO is even less likely to win then Sweet Reason. Somehow they have got two G1 wins and 1.4million earned out of this filly, with a lifetime best beyer of 94. It’s really incredible and all the props in the world to the connections…. If there are no scratches she should be around 10-1. She will probably be closer to 4-1 because of Repole, Todd and JV. Maybe I’m way off about her maybe she builds off that 94 beyer 2 starts back and moves forward and wins…. If that happens I lose.
The PA Derby. I want no part of California Chrome at all. If he wins, I lose. California Chrome has accomplished a lot on the track. Because Bayern, Wicked Strong and Tonalist did not win the Travers he is still probably the leader for the 3yr old eclipse award. With that being said I think his best races are behind him. He peaked early, nothing wrong with that. I’m going to press Bayern. He has the fastest races and there is not a lot of speed in here. He is probably a miler. Its one thing for a miler to stretch to 9f, that’s doable. It’s another thing for a miler to try going 10f with Tonalist and Wicked Strong coming after you early. I guess CJ’s Awesome could go after him, but I’m not even sure it would matter going 9f @Parx. Im going to back up with Protonico and Noble Moon. They are both lightly raced and I believe there are reasons to like both of them. Protonico has a decent win over the track. On beyer he has moved forward in every race that he has run in this year. He has pressed a hot pace and closed from well off of a hot pace. He ran fine 2 back in the Curlin and obviously VE Day came back to win the Travers. This horse has done nothing wrong this year. He is versatile. Having Javier Castellano does not hurt. Noble Moon, I think Noble Moon is really good. I think he ran really well off the layoff in the Kings Bishop. If you really take this horses races apart you can come to the conclusion that he has never run a bad race in his career. He is going to be 15-1 or more and I think he is sitting on a big race 2nd start back.

[horses4courses]

.

On Saturday, California Chrome, who captivated the world with his bid for the Triple Crown, will write a new chapter in his story when he returns to action in the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at Parx Racing, his first start since the Belmont. Also on the Parx card are two other terrific graded stakes races, including the $1,000,000 Cotillion Stakes (gr. I), in which Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) winner Untapable will try to cement her dominance of the three-year-old filly division. So without further ado, let’s start handicapping this fantastic day of racing!

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unloc...#ixzz3DWN0t1mi

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I'm sure the other jocks will permit him to move off the rail, jocks are good like that, they get out of they way, all you do is have to yell "coming thru" and someone will move over for you. Classy guys those jocks.

Aww come on now.....I don't know you but on here. You seem like you'd be a pretty decent guy. But seriously, that was uncalled for.

[thespaah]

Entire card has full fields. Should be a good day at Parx....The only disappointment is there's race on the turf

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The connections of Chrome should make some public comments about the tendency of PARX to have a dead rail. That should ensure that the track maintenance people are on it.

A quick run of the stats shows the rail post (and the 2 post) do well in routes. 18 / 16%, 1.15 / 0.89 ROI per dollar bet.

[Dark Horse]

Chrome may need a race. Value for him doesn't start at 3/2 or better. Race has negative playing field, so a pass for me.

[taxicab]

I'm starting to think this is a no harm,no foul race for California Chrome.
If he wins it just adds to his resume (and his bankroll).
If he loses he probably gets enough out of the race to have him ready for the Classic.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I'm starting to think this is a no harm,no foul race for California Chrome.
If he wins it just adds to his resume (and his bankroll).
If he loses he probably gets enough out of the race to have him ready for the Classic.

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by castaway01

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.

Agreed.

I want to see him at least run well here and take his chance in the Classic.
If he doesn't fire, that could be all she wrote.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by castaway01

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.

I think he'll win Saturday.
But he doesn't have to win.
He can lose by 5 lengths and still fire big in the Classic.
CC will get some condition out of this race......win/lose/draw.
Sherman hints in this video that CC will be getting alot out of his race in Pa.
Quoting Sherman, "That's what I'm hoping,that we get a good race under him...and that'll help him alot.....it gives me 5 weeks to the Breeders Cup after that(Pa Dy.) so I can do some training...."
It sure sounds like the Breeders Cup Classic is the race Sherman is pointing towards.

http://youtu.be/GbGb70FVlAA

[thespaah]

Weather for Saturday at Parx
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILADELPHIA
930 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.