 |
|
08-23-2014, 01:54 AM
|
#16
|
|
C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
|
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 02:09 AM
|
#17
|
|
longshot kick de bucket
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: niagara falls ont.
Posts: 1,218
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.
|
me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top
__________________
let the fools have their tar tar sauce.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 06:45 AM
|
#18
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,230
|
Bris 1 1/4 distance breeding---
 110
 108 Bayern
 116
 110
 109
 116 Tonalist
 114 Wicked Strong
 113
 108
 115
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 09:29 AM
|
#19
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,986
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by appistappis
me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top
|
V.E. Day hit a wall at the eight pole in the Curlin. Had that race been a mile and a quarter, I project the final time would have been around 2:05 and change. The Travers looks to finish around 2:02 flat, my projection. V.E. Day will need to improve about 15-17 lengths to win this. Could he improve that much? While there is no indication that he will, this is horse racing and I have seen just about everything in 40 years. Almost nothing is impossible in this game, but my money says no he can't make that big of an improvement.
Also, he is picking up 7 pounds and the jockey opts elsewhere. Two not so good signs. Finally, so many people on this board talk value. True value on this horse would be around 50-1. And you won't get that on him. So he is an underlay and offers no value at 20-1, IMO.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 09:34 AM
|
#20
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,986
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by pele polo
2 opinions I want to share:
- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.
- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.
Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.
|
How many Oflee Wild horses sell for 320,000? His stud fee is 4000, so this is a fluke horse where breeding can be thrown out the window.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 10:03 AM
|
#22
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,986
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jefftune
|
I agree with you. I believe the big three will be running 1-2-3 down the backstretch. Which means an inferior horse will have to pass one of them instead of a cheap horse stealing a placing because an idiot jockey gets the better horse too far behind. Another reason why they should run 1-2-3.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 11:38 AM
|
#23
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
|
Travers
Using the , MR. SPEAKER.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:26 PM
|
#24
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by pele polo
2 opinions I want to share:
- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.
- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.
Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.
|
I share your concerns about Bayern getting 10f.
Here's my take.
With Bayern being the only real speed of the field, I see him taking command by the time they hit the first turn. All that's needed is to get a clear lead, give him a break down the backstretch, bottoming out the rest and then being urged home in a dawdling 25 second last quarter to win in like 2:03 and change. The others will be running on a treadmill trying to gain ground on the huffing and puffing Bayern.
JMHO....
Last edited by thespaah; 08-23-2014 at 12:39 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:29 PM
|
#25
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I don't get why no one thinks Offlee Wild can sire 10 F winners. Did he not win the 10 F 2005 Suburban?
|
Here's a quote I pulled from Horseracingnation.com
"None of Offlee Wild’s offspring have won or placed at 1 ¼ miles in a stakes race. "
Full link....
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...rs_Stakes_123#
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:31 PM
|
#26
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by zico20
Just out of curiosity, would Bayern have hit a wall in the Haskell and finished off the board had they gone another quarter mile. To me, it didn't look like he would have stopped on a dime.
|
Well, it would have only been another furlong.
Bayern finished up strong in the Haskell. I wish I'd seen the gallop out.
That would help me to decide if he can get the extra panel.
Edit.
Just watched the replay. Unfortunately the camera did not follow the winner after the wire. However, to me it appeared that Bayern finished up driving, no stick.
That finish would not scare me off him today.
Again, Bayern looked strong.
Last edited by thespaah; 08-23-2014 at 12:37 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:31 PM
|
#27
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,058
|
Tonalist . . . last time out was basically a prep, he'll prove best today again
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:45 PM
|
#28
|
|
C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
|
If the Wood Mem were another furlong do you think Bellamy Road would have folded?
He folded badly in the Derby...
My point is that the "extra furlong added to the Haskell" argument is hollow.
We aren't going from 1m to 1m1/8...the last furlong in a 10f race often spells ruin for runners not ready to go that far.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 08-23-2014 at 12:46 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 12:53 PM
|
#29
|
|
Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,797
|
Tonalist......short price
Bayern....same
Wicked Strong..........again
Mr Speaker would have to be the only play value wise
|
|
|
|
08-23-2014, 01:18 PM
|
#30
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by zico20
V.E. Day hit a wall at the eight pole in the Curlin. Had that race been a mile and a quarter, I project the final time would have been around 2:05 and change. The Travers looks to finish around 2:02 flat, my projection. V.E. Day will need to improve about 15-17 lengths to win this. Could he improve that much? While there is no indication that he will, this is horse racing and I have seen just about everything in 40 years. Almost nothing is impossible in this game, but my money says no he can't make that big of an improvement.
Also, he is picking up 7 pounds and the jockey opts elsewhere. Two not so good signs. Finally, so many people on this board talk value. True value on this horse would be around 50-1. And you won't get that on him. So he is an underlay and offers no value at 20-1, IMO.
|
I agree with you on V. E. Day.
While he is a really nice animal, I don't like his action in the lane last time. He also had a dream trip and needed a blanket finish.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
