Handicapping changes?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I've been reading your posts for a while now regarding coding for class, speed, pace etc., you need to develop a comprehensive program which includes all of the factors you've been reviewing. I think successful handicapping includes all of these variables. You have good ideas so quit doing it piecemeal and stop screwing around. One factor has an effect on the other factors. Just keep in mind that you'll never be able to develop a program which will allow you to successfully handicap every type or race situation.

Actually, this about version 103 that's getting reformulated and revamped. It's time for a make over. Most common throughout my apps is a comprehensive approach adding up points for speed, class, form, prep, and connections. I'm not sure this is the best approach. But I intend to keep with it for this rewrite. I love to code and do analysis. For the gamblers, buying someone else's app works just fine. I consider this rewrite my first professional level app. When I wrote the earlier versions, I lacked experience with the game. My systems were basically book based. Looking forward to testing my class figs soon.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

FWIW

Point #1:
I have found that knowing what is working is more important than "covering all bases" and using a "final number".

Point #2:
For me, I move horses around and create my own line. If I come across a horse that I think is the same as 3 others [for example] and the odds are 30:1, I bet it.

You will amaze yourself with what floats to the top. Not every race and sometimes days apart. But every once in awhile you hit a big one.

I am a big believer in one's own line.

Good Luck!

Using a single factor only has done well for me in the past. My longest profitable streak, 13 weeks, was using Giles's style pace figs for non-maidens while using workout times for maidens. The problem with comprehensive handicapping is that it gets more low odds horses than single factor systems making it difficult to be profitable.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Using a single factor only has done well for me in the past. My longest profitable streak, 13 weeks, was using Giles's style pace figs for non-maidens while using workout times for maidens. The problem with comprehensive handicapping is that it gets more low odds horses than single factor systems making it difficult to be profitable.

I was interested in your threads because I also used to concentrate on one factor at a time. But, it didn't start to make sense or rather I didn't start to see the pace scenarios until I combined all the factors with a focused plan. Again, I wouldn't try to create a program for all types of races or situations.

What's wrong with low odds horses which can win? Just make certain the odds are acceptable.

Good luck. I want to see you succeed because I think you have creative ideas which is needed in this game. And, I was hoping you'd let us know when you get to that aha moment.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

How fast does handicapping change? If too fast then why buy software at all? If not, what are you doing to keep up with it? Are the essentials always the same?

I believe racing changes happen all at once like when poly tracks popped up or PC became available. In between these changes very little happens. And I do believe the fundamentals are always there. We just need to figure out how to adapt the fundamentals to the changes.

The major changes that I can list are

• Horses are better grouped into a race of similar class horses.
• Days since last raced isn't as straight foward as it used to be.
• poly tracks
• Many more sprint turf races
• Many more optional claiming or, at least, it seems so.
• Computer aided handicapping.
  
• Speed figures are available to everyone.
• The public is hip to pace, but not as much as they think they are.

Another thought provoking thread.

If you played before the 1980's one handicapped to win (or place and show).

We now have to handicap for 4th and fifth place in a race. A totally different mindset especially since the 4th place horse could finish or stagger home, 15 lengths behind the winner.

I personally never handicap for 5th place since I don't play pentafectas.

Plus back then almost 100% of ones bankroll was devoted to win betting, and not divided between up to 6(or more) different types of wagers per race.

[Billnewman]

Originally Posted by acorn54

another handicapping change which is available to everyone is the almost infinite number of statistics, and their roi and win percentage.
use to be people that laboriously kept records of such things as trainer/jockey combinations, or trainer patterns MAY have had an edge in the parimutuel pools. today anyone, even the weekend player can have any stat they want with just a few keystrokes.
such technology available to the general public has made the parimutuel pools virtually efficient in the odds given to each horse at post time, imo.

Unless you have a ton of money to maintain a home based track it's not worth the risk of injury. If they did train on the farm it would defiantly be on grass.