Princes of Wales Stakes discussion

[letswastemoney]

I've never seen a race filled with so many horses not suited to dirt, both from a pedigree and record standpoint. Is Fort Erie similar to the dirt courses in the States?

Anyways, I narrowed the field down to Matador (3/1) and Lynx (5/1). Lynx has more natural speed and the pace projector thinks the race favors speed. He's also working well.

His primary competition up front will be Coltimus Prime, who was zero dirt ability from what I can tell from looking at the PPs.

So, I think I'll make a simple win bet on Lynx.

[MOG4023]

I was thinking of Lynx - but 7 races to break his maiden? 5/1 ML meh
Was 3rd in the Pegasus but a long way back..........

Coltimus worked last Tues in 59.2o between races at FE to get a feel for this Tuesday. - That's a cool move.

[Robert Fischer]

of the longer shots I like LIONS BAY as a contender.

He'll have to find a way to save a little ground into the first turn, but I like this one.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

of the longer shots I like LIONS BAY as a contender.

He'll have to find a way to save a little ground into the first turn, but I like this one.

I wish his dirt breeding was a little better. His sire Sligo Bay never ran on dirt, and his grandsire is Sadler's Wells.

His top earning sibling Lions Rule looks okay on dirt though using what TimeformUS tells me, running a high of 84 on the surface, although his highest came with a 92 on synthetic.

With that said, it will not blow my mind if Lions Bay wins. The field doesn't look so strong.

[appistappis]

if it helps, a friend of mine bred and races lions bay.....he ripped his shoe half off coming out of the gate in the plate.

handicapping this race comes down to who will like dirt and who won't.

And yes, ft erie is a normal dirt course, doesn't offer up too much bias one way or the other very often.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by MOG4023

I was thinking of Lynx - but 7 races to break his maiden? 5/1 ML meh
Was 3rd in the Pegasus but a long way back..........

I'm okay with the fact it took him seven starts because four of those came on synthetic. Once he switched to dirt, he's suddenly a length away from Ring Weekend?

That can't be the same Lynx from his first four starts...

Granted, then he failed badly by 20 lengths in his second dirt start. But a layoff came after, so maybe an injury occurred.

As for the Pegasus, eh, Albano and Encryption would be the favorites in this race. Albano ran very well in the Haskell. So, I'm okay with that double digit loss too.

[cutchemist42]

Kinda sucks to hear the Queens Plate is skipping it, worries about running 3 races in 6 weeks which is understandable.

After a quick look at the Bris PP, was kinda surprised to see the low CR rating for the Queens Plate. I know the number is not always accurate, but a 115 for a $1mil race?

[cj]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

Kinda sucks to hear the Queens Plate is skipping it, worries about running 3 races in 6 weeks which is understandable.

After a quick look at the Bris PP, was kinda surprised to see the low CR rating for the Queens Plate. I know the number is not always accurate, but a 115 for a $1mil race?

It is restricted to Canadian breds, the purse doesn't represent the quality of the horses.

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by cj

It is restricted to Canadian breds, the purse doesn't represent the quality of the horses.

Oh I know, I just didnt know Canadian breds would draw that type of field, I've now been educated.

Anyhow, after looking at this, I hate to go with what seems like a short odds favourite but I think Ami's Holiday wins here. Something about the Coltimus Prime intrigues me though.

[HuggingTheRail]

The 2 should be tough....

2 with 10 with 5,6,8,9
2 with 5,6,8,9 with 10

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by MOG4023

Coltimus worked last Tues in 59.2o between races at FE to get a feel for this Tuesday. - That's a cool move.

I like Coltimus Pride. The Queens' Plate appeared to place inside speed at a disadvantage.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I've never seen a race filled with so many horses not suited to dirt, both from a pedigree and record standpoint. Is Fort Erie similar to the dirt courses in the States?

Anyways, I narrowed the field down to Matador (3/1) and Lynx (5/1). Lynx has more natural speed and the pace projector thinks the race favors speed. He's also working well.

His primary competition up front will be Coltimus Prime, who was zero dirt ability from what I can tell from looking at the PPs.

So, I think I'll make a simple win bet on Lynx.

Sorry, what race is this, what track, what day? Thanks.

[Robert Fischer]

Fort Erie R8 today 7:40pm eastern



I'll box 'em in the exacta and do 2 top/bottom of all , and 210 top bottom of all =$44




There could be some value in this race, it's just a tough race for me to have strong confidence in.

-Ami's Holiday - looks like a deserving favorite. Ran well in the Queen's Plate. Looks the part. Ran decent at Kee.

- Lions Bay - I mentioned I thought this one was a possible value.



It looks like one way to go here, is to try to beat the Matador (3-1 ml).
He didn't do much running in the Queen's Plate but he's been the most highly regarded of this whole field. He could easily bounce back and win this race. What the heck, I'll toss him.


- Lynx - Trainer is giving 110% for a big owner. Maybe this one has some talent?

- Coltimus Prime - He attended the hard pace in the Queen's plate.

- Rhythm Blues - should really enjoy the dirt and is a price addition.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks RF.

[cutchemist42]

Just cause the will be a short price, going with the . I would not love the out of multi-race wagers tho