Class ratings for Stakes races

[Tom]

In his article, "The Basics of Handicapping the Turf," Rich Halvey suggested that to be a Gr1 turf race, at least a third of the horses in it have won or placed in a Gr1 race.

I used that idea for a while and have come up with a simple rating system for stakes races.

Look for a win and give it points as follows:

Gr1 - 1
Gr2 - 2
Gr3 - 3
Open stake - 4
Clf Alw - 5
Nw3/4 Alw - 6
Nw2/1 Alw - 7

Example, the Molly Pitcher at Monmouth today, Race # 7

#1 - rates a 6 of the last race.
#2 - scratched, would have rated a 7
#3 - rates a 4 off three of her races.
#4 - scratched, would have rated a 7
#5 - rates a 4 off his fourth line back
#6 - rates a 7 off her last win
#7 - rates a 6 of the last win
#8 - rates a 4 off the last race
#9 - rates a 4 off the last race

For a 7 horse four of the horses rate a 4, so that is the race rating.
the results - 9-3-6 (4,4,7)

When the 9 runs back, I will know she beat a "Open Stakes" quality filed, not a Gr2 field.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Tom

In his article, "The Basics of Handicapping the Turf," Rich Halvey suggested that to be a Gr1 turf race, at least a third of the horses in it have won or placed in a Gr1 race.

I used that idea for a while and have come up with a simple rating system for stakes races.

Look for a win and give it points as follows:

Gr1 - 1
Gr2 - 2
Gr3 - 3
Open stake - 4
Clf Alw - 5
Nw3/4 Alw - 6
Nw2/1 Alw - 7

Example, the Molly Pitcher at Monmouth today, Race # 7

#1 - rates a 6 of the last race.
#2 - scratched, would have rated a 7
#3 - rates a 4 off three of her races.
#4 - scratched, would have rated a 7
#5 - rates a 4 off his fourth line back
#6 - rates a 7 off her last win
#7 - rates a 6 of the last win
#8 - rates a 4 off the last race
#9 - rates a 4 off the last race

For a 7 horse four of the horses rate a 4, so that is the race rating.
the results - 9-3-6 (4,4,7)

When the 9 runs back, I will know she beat a "Open Stakes" quality filed, not a Gr2 field.

Good way to determine strength of field. You should be able to apply this method to dirt races as well, no?

[Tom]

Yes, I do all stakes.
I do not use a turf race for a dirt race or vice versa,but I will use poly for dirt and turf for poly.

[SuitedAces]

This idea looks profitable...but I'm slow at the switch here.

Could you explain in more detail, using todays, Mondays, Race 8 at Saratoga, the Honorable Miss H, a Grade 2 event.

Horse 1 last ran in a stakes race which deserves a rating of 4. So the first question is are we only rating the last race?

Thanks

[SuitedAces]

Next I would detail as following:

1-4
2-4
3-4
5-3
6-3
7-2

I'd then average the scores to 3 1/3 and say the field was slightly better than a Grade 3.

If this is right so far, what next? Would I use this for the next time the winner runs or maybe use this to rate the winner of the last stakes race. Looks intriguing to me.

[Tom]

Use all the races, just no turf for a dirt race or vice versa.

Todays race -

1 - 2 (won a Gr2)
2 - 4
3 - 4
4 - Scratched
5 - 3
6 - 7
7 - 2 (won a Gr2)

Since this is a 6 horse filed, 1/3 of the horse are Gr2 winners, so the races is rated Gr2.

That is all there is - it is not a betting method, just a way to classify the races for use later on. When R Free Roll runs back, I will see she won a legitimate Gr2 stake.

[cnollfan]

For the CCA Oaks on 7/20, for example:

Stopchargingmaria Gr 2 = 2
Unbridled Forever Open Stake = 4
The other four horses won either N1X allowance races = 7, or a maiden race.

So even though this is a Grade I race, it qualifies as "open stake" since 1/3 of the horses won an open stake or better. Do I have it right?

[Tom]

Yes, that is it.

[cj]

This is really cool, thanks Tom.

[Tom]

This idea came from both the Turf article and from the "Zenyatta" discussion, about what she really beat in those races at SA and HOL.

[classhandicapper]

I like it.

I do something similar. I am always tinkering with ideas along these lines. You can add to it by looking at 1st, 2nd, and 3rd instead of just wins. That way you aren't limited to just the wins.

For example.

A 2nd in Grade 2 race is equal to a 1st in a Grade 3 race.

A 3rd in a Grade 1 race is equal to a 1st in a Grade 2 race.

You can adjust for field size and say a 4th in a 12 horse field is similar to a 3rd in a 9 horse field.

You can adjust for big wins or races where 2 horses crushed the rest of the field.

ex. A 1st in a Grade 2 is equal to a 3rd in a Grade 1, but if the horse won by 5 lengths it's equal to a 2nd.

You can focus on just the top finishers in the race (I look at the top 5) and horses that were competitive in the race (showed speed). That way you aren't counting horses that rated well, but were terrible in today's race.

Here's an article along these lines from TOBA.

http://www.toba.org/graded-stakes/race-page.aspx

http://www.toba.org/graded-stakes/gr...-workbook.aspx

At one point I contemplated doing the entire class structure along these lines, but the point assignments require that you be very familiar with the PARS for every class. That's a monstrous headache. It works really well for stakes though.

[HUSKER55]

thanks for the link!

[VeryOldMan]

Great thread start - thanks Tom.

Follow up has been interesting too. Really enjoy these threads that help fellow horseplayers think about the sport and that don't start with or devolve into some sort of "measurement" contest.

[SuitedAces]

Very good. I'll follow this idea all year. Thanks for the feedback Tom

[JohnGalt1]

To add, James Quinn rates Grade III's as 2 levels below grade II's, which works for me when I do my Scott's Performance Class Ratings.