Speed vs. Pace

[Matt Bryan]

So, I'm embarrassed to ask, but as a casual handicapper of the last 2 years, how would you explain the difference between speed and pace in layman's terms? For someone that is becoming more and more interested in the craft of handicapping (reading about it, etc.), and going to the track more and more, I still get confused between the two. Intuitively I think I know - but then, there's always something that throws me. I mean, equally intuitive, is that speed and pace often seem synonymous.
Also, I'm not sure I understand how speed figures relate to lengths...and/or par, etc. - and, similar with pace figures.

Thx.

[Overlay]

Didn't someone (like Ray Taulbot or his ghost writers, for example) once comment about speed being "how fast a horse runs", whereas pace was "how a horse runs fast"? I think I also recall him discussing how two horses that appeared closely matched on the basis of previous final time (with the emphasis on speed) could be differentiated by the fractions in which they ran that time (taking pace into consideration), where the truly superior horse would be the one that had recorded that final time after setting or overcoming a faster early pace that would cause the other horse to fade. (I'll gladly defer to others for more in-depth responses, especially about figuring class into the equation. )

[Poindexter]

I will give you a harness racing example just for sake of ease Harness races are typically 1 mile long and ideally a horse will run 4 equal quarters. So a horse that can go 1:56 wire to wire will ideally go four 1/4's of .29 seconds each. Obviously speed is that the horse can go a mile in 1:56. The pace is how he went 1:56. Now if this same horse is forced to duel the 1st quarter from the rail(will elimate ground loss for this dicussion) then he was used early. The fact he went 28 seconds instead of 29 seconds in my estimation means that he will likely not race in 1:56, but he will tire later even if he goes nice even quarters after that and will run in about 156.2 to 156.3. So his fractions might be 28 57.3 127 156.2. These are all fifths of a second I am using. So the general gist of pace is that by being used hard in a certain portion of the race the horses final time will be slower than if he was able to cruise around the track at an ideal pace. With Thoros it is the same ideal, except that on dirt races especially sprints horses go faster earlier and slower late. But the idea is the same. Two horses can race in 110:2 on the same day. One goes wire to wire 22 45 110.2 while another goes 21.3 44.2 110.2(once again fifths not tenths I am old school). The horse that raced faster early is generally the better horse. Lets assume they race against each other next time out. Now if they are both need the lead types the horse that went .45 to the half last time will be outgunned by the 44.2 horse and will have no chance. If the horse that went slower early can rate(press) than who else is in the race will determine the outcome. If the horse who went 44.2 early can now go 44.4 he likely will be able to go 110.1 or 110 because he has more energy since he has not been used as hard early. Now of course there are many other variables, such as pressure, running styles,variants......But this is the very basics of pace and how it affects final time. These days if you are using a publication that provides pace figures just remember the faster the horse went early, the more likely the horse will slow down and the more excuse he has for a poor final figure. If you want to really learn the subject, books by Quirin and Brohamer are a good place to start(check the appropriate form for ideas). I am sure the guys on this board can come up with a lot more. A final note, when you get into turf racing(routing), late pace becomes extremely important(because they go much slower early and they sprint home). So you have to not only take into account their figures but their late pace which is as important.

[TBD]

To me to put speed and pace figures in layman terms, speed figures are a calculation made at the end of a race. Pace figures are a calculation at different call points during the race. Probably one of the best examples would be to find a dead heat for first. Both horses would share the same completion time but not necessarily the same pace figures. It should reflect the different styles which horses use to accomplish the same distance.

[JimG]

Originally Posted by Matt Bryan

So, I'm embarrassed to ask, but as a casual handicapper of the last 2 years, how would you explain the difference between speed and pace in layman's terms?

Thx.

2 books

Speed Beyer on Speed by Andy Beyer

Pace Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer.

Both are required reading, imo, to novice handicappers looking to improve.

Jim

[SandyW]

Handicapping Magic By Michael Pizzolla is also an excellent book on Pace.

[Tom]

I'd add Extreme Pace Handicapping to that list.
Randy outlines an easy method that might get inexperienced players betting and cashing sooner.

Matt, never be embarrassed to ask questions.
Contrary to popular belief, none of us know it all.

[thaskalos]

Have you ever seen Olympic middle-distance runners consulting their wristwatches at certain points of the race that they run in? They are trying to assess the "pace" of the race...so they can make sure that their style of running does not conflict with the "dynamics" that the pace of the race is likely to create.

The front runners know that a faster than normal pace is likely to deplete their energy reserves, leaving them vulnerable during the crucial dash for the wire at the last stage of the race...while the runners at the back of the pack know that too SLOW a pace will mean that the front runners will have plenty in the tank for the stretch drive...leaving the trailing runners with too much to do and not enough time to do it in at the late stage of the race. So each group tries to assess these pace issues ahead of time...so they can position themselves accordingly during the running of the race.

Well...the same forces apply in horse racing...with the exception that the horses and the jockeys do not have wristwatches to consult during the race. The pace of the race often creates situations where either the front-runner or the closer has enjoyed a technical advantage during the running of the race...leaving the opposing group at a decided DISADVANTAGE. It then becomes the HANDICAPPER'S job to assess the effects of this pace...so he can better deal with these horses when they come back to run again.

The game is not as simple as the speed ratings make it seem.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by Matt Bryan

So, I'm embarrassed to ask, but as a casual handicapper of the last 2 years, how would you explain the difference between speed and pace in layman's terms? For someone that is becoming more and more interested in the craft of handicapping (reading about it, etc.), and going to the track more and more, I still get confused between the two. Intuitively I think I know - but then, there's always something that throws me. I mean, equally intuitive, is that speed and pace often seem synonymous.
Also, I'm not sure I understand how speed figures relate to lengths...and/or par, etc. - and, similar with pace figures.

Thx.

Compare the all-out sprint of a short quarterhorse race to a mile and a half race. A horse can't sprint that long, so now it has to pace itself, and will usually do so depending on its preferred running style. From the combined running styles for the field you can determine the race shape, and come up with an expectation of how it affects each horse.

In a nutshell:
- speed horses need comfort and a breather.
- stalkers need some pace to help weaken the speed, but not a ton of it.
- closers need pace to weaken speed and to a lesser degree stalkers.
- deep closers need plenty of pace.

You can learn quite a bit from the free library over at brisnet. Example: http://www.brisnet.com/library/softw...e%20Shapes.pdf

[Capper Al]

I like speed for finding contenders. I like pace for separating contenders.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Matt Bryan

So, I'm embarrassed to ask, but as a casual handicapper of the last 2 years, how would you explain the difference between speed and pace in layman's terms? For someone that is becoming more and more interested in the craft of handicapping (reading about it, etc.), and going to the track more and more, I still get confused between the two. Intuitively I think I know - but then, there's always something that throws me. I mean, equally intuitive, is that speed and pace often seem synonymous.
Also, I'm not sure I understand how speed figures relate to lengths...and/or par, etc. - and, similar with pace figures.

Thx.

Speed and pace are the same absolutely. What your question should be is: “What’s the difference between pace and final time?”

Speed can be defined several ways: (a) the movement from one point to another point with respect to time, (b) the ratio of distance to time, or (c) in the language of calculus, speed is the first derivative of distance with respect to time.

Pace is the speed required to achieve a final time and in horse racing pace is sometimes referred to as “internal fractions” or “sectional timing.”

Mathematically, final time is a function of pace.

Also in a horse race there are typically two types of speed because of the configuration of the racetrack: (1) Linear speed which occurs when the horse is running down the track’s straightaway and (2) Angular speed when the horse is running around the track’s turns.

There is another metric and it is velocity and the distinction between speed and velocity is speed tells you how fast; and velocity tells you how fast and in what direction.

Neither Equibase nor DRF gives speed in their data. They give time against a prescribed distance which can be converted into an estimated “speed” for the distance of the race or section of the race.

Trakus, the “new kid on the block” gives speed because it gives both distance and time in its data and whatever speed is it must involve both distance and time.

Furthermore Trakus measures instantaneous speed, that is, the speed determined over a very small interval of time.

But let’s sum up what is being stated in the context of horse racing.

Speed would be the magnitude of the horse’s movement while velocity would be the horse’s movement with magnitude and has direction. For example a horse breaks from the gate at Churchill Downs and run the first quarter (assuming 1320 feet for the quarter distance) in 22 seconds. It velocity would be 60 feet/second and its direction would be SW.

For that quarter of the race, the horse’s speed and velocity would be the same. However as the horse continues to the end of the race it velocity would change because it direction would be changing, the magnitude of those changes would be its speed.

And at the end of the race you would have the final time which would be determined by the pace of the race.

[Magister Ludi]

Pace handicappers believe that sectional times are more important than finishing times. My own opinion, distinctly in the minority, is that neither speed nor pace factors are needed in a profitable handicapping model. Both types of factors are already strongly reflected in public odds.

[classhandicapper]

Cratos,

I have a question for you, but you'll have to think in "Beyer terms" and your own terms to answer it for me.

Assume "Mr. Beyer" calculated that a specific track was producing final times that were 3 seconds faster/slower than average for 1 mile. That's pretty extreme. I'm using 1 mile in the example because it's a distance that's clearly too far for a horse to run as its maximum speed for the full distance.

Now let's assume there's another race on the card and it's only a 2 furlong race.

Is is possible that the horses would only be minimally impacted by that same track?

By "minimally" I mean way less than you would think if you were assuming proportionally.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Have you ever seen Olympic middle-distance runners consulting their wristwatches at certain points of the race that they run in? They are trying to assess the "pace" of the race...so they can make sure that their style of running does not conflict with the "dynamics" that the pace of the race is likely to create.

The front runners know that a faster than normal pace is likely to deplete their energy reserves, leaving them vulnerable during the crucial dash for the wire at the last stage of the race...while the runners at the back of the pack know that too SLOW a pace will mean that the front runners will have plenty in the tank for the stretch drive...leaving the trailing runners with too much to do and not enough time to do it in at the late stage of the race. So each group tries to assess these pace issues ahead of time...so they can position themselves accordingly during the running of the race.

Well...the same forces apply in horse racing...with the exception that the horses and the jockeys do not have wristwatches to consult during the race. The pace of the race often creates situations where either the front-runner or the closer has enjoyed a technical advantage during the running of the race...leaving the opposing group at a decided DISADVANTAGE. It then becomes the HANDICAPPER'S job to assess the effects of this pace...so he can better deal with these horses when they come back to run again.

The game is not as simple as the speed ratings make it seem.

Watches are not for Olympic or elite runner, I am a average runner and run with a watch, I know what I am capable of, so if I am running in 5k, I gauge my speed at the first mile, too slow I speed up, too fast I slow down, its knowing what you are capable of and adjusting your pace so that you run your best time. Of course horses don't have watch and are dependent on the jockey to be their watch.

Allan

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Watches are not for Olympic or elite runner, I am a average runner and run with a watch, I know what I am capable of, so if I am running in 5k, I gauge my speed at the first mile, too slow I speed up, too fast I slow down, its knowing what you are capable of and adjusting your pace so that you run your best time. Of course horses don't have watch and are dependent on the jockey to be their watch.

Allan

Yeah...but the jockey is often a lousy timekeeper.