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07-07-2014, 03:38 PM
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#16
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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I thought about this thread last night and thought about a thread i started here last year about a horse at Delta Downs who won like 6 or 7 races in a row, all by a nose, head or neck.
This is one horse winning by a "small margin" and i don't have the PPs in front of me, but he might have beaten 6 different horses by small margins. So, you have an example here of one runner being responsible for 6 different horses losing by a head.
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07-07-2014, 09:28 PM
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#17
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I thought about this thread last night and thought about a thread i started here last year about a horse at Delta Downs who won like 6 or 7 races in a row, all by a nose, head or neck.
This is one horse winning by a "small margin" and i don't have the PPs in front of me, but he might have beaten 6 different horses by small margins. So, you have an example here of one runner being responsible for 6 different horses losing by a head.
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how often did he gain by a head or hold off by a head?
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-07-2014, 09:39 PM
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#18
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by traynor
But what about races that end in a dead heat for win, with only one horse losing by a head to the two winners?
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I would think that is a throw out, That could be less than 1% of the finishes.
Then again perhaps not.. look at the data.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-07-2014, 10:00 PM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by formula_2002
how often did he gain by a head or hold off by a head?
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I wish i could find the thread and the horse's name, but if i remember correctly, he was a pace presser speed type, so he was usually the one battling back or holding on to win by a small margin rather than passing the other runner to just get up.
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07-08-2014, 05:38 AM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by traynor
But what about races that end in a dead heat for win, with only one horse losing by a head to the two winners?
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The argument could be made that neither horse won by anything. Even if you count them as both winners by a head, there are a lot more non-dead-heats that involve two horses who lose by a head to the winner, than dead-heats that beat the next horse or horses by a head.
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07-08-2014, 06:50 AM
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#21
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Traded By Cubs
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: 2 miles north of Wrigley Field
Posts: 5,339
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Gonna be hard to know who held on or lost by a head. Chart data has the visually estimated margin at the stretch call, and that is 1 furlong before the finish. What happened between then and the finish, who knows? Heads could get in front and fall back or get out-nodded. Think that would require reviewing videos - way too much work, for me at least.
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07-08-2014, 12:46 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: route 66
Posts: 1,112
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I don't know the answer to your question, but if I could bet that late in the race, and it looked like it would be that close, I would bet on the horse coming from behind. He carries the most speed, so if the jockey has timed his run correctly he should win more often.
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07-08-2014, 05:29 PM
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#23
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'
Gonna be hard to know who held on or lost by a head. Chart data has the visually estimated margin at the stretch call, and that is 1 furlong before the finish. What happened between then and the finish, who knows? Heads could get in front and fall back or get out-nodded. Think that would require reviewing videos - way too much work, for me at least.
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just go with what you know. if the horse is not in the lead at the stretch call and wins by a neck, he closed. if the horse is 1st at the stretch call and loses by a neck he lost by a neck..
always note the odds.
the result we be you will know the odds of the winners bt a neck and the losers by a neck. where do we go from there? not sure, but the results could lead us.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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07-10-2014, 08:40 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Bren's Friend, a 5 year old mare by Act of Duty, who's racing in a few mins at Penn National (Race 7, July 10), has a lifetime boxscore of 36 starts, 3 wins TWENTY seconds and 5 thirds.
yes, 3 wins and 20 seconds. 
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07-10-2014, 11:45 PM
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#25
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posts: 7,706
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Bren's Friend, a 5 year old mare by Act of Duty, who's racing in a few mins at Penn National (Race 7, July 10), has a lifetime boxscore of 36 starts, 3 wins TWENTY seconds and 5 thirds.
yes, 3 wins and 20 seconds. |
She should be renamed "Jacqueline Who". 
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07-11-2014, 01:10 AM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Overlay
She should be renamed "Jacqueline Who". |
She won tonight! 4th lifetime win. As soon as i branded her a seconditis horse, she said "i'll show you!" 
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