Zivo 19-1 to 13-1 after the load started (Suburban HCP)

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

RF,

What fair odds rating did you apply to Zivo's chances?

I didn't handicap or bet this race.

I wouldn't have done well if I did. Zivo looked good to me, but I would have thought he got a great setup in the previous race, and been prejudiced against the statebred races. I don't like Moreno all that much. I may have been fooled by the fast Brooklyn time as well. But I'm not crazy about Romansh either and he feels like a "default favorite" rather than a division leader type.

Maybe 8-1 to 12-1 range on paper?

[KingChas]

Originally Posted by titans1127

At least with the self service machines that NYRA uses they definitely stop betting before the gates open at simulcast tracks. A few times I have tried putting a bet in at the last minute just for a window to pop up as i'm punching numbers stating betting is closed. I turn around to look at the TV and the field is usually half loaded.

That's my point,a host on TVG can be on the screens cancel ticket page and cancel his bet at the last second, but you at the track could never have done that.
Very uneven playing field if you are not a whale and do not have access to last millisecond (sic? )computer wagers.

If everyone believes that insiders or hackers cannot get into or alter the auto-tote system, as I stated good for them..........
Is it happening every race............no
But if some are pulling this off they will get bolder and bolder...it's called greed.

[Robert Fischer]

[QUOTE=Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

we obviously need this, so:




From my perspective, I was not referring to past posting. What was your fair odds threshold on Zivo?

I understand, and I think there are good discussions to be had about why a horse takes late money.

This chart was more directed toward the OP and the recent slew of past-post implications/suggestions for every horse who's odds drop at any time after the gate opens.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I didn't handicap or bet this race.

I wouldn't have done well if I did. Zivo looked good to me, but I would have thought he got a great setup in the previous race, and been prejudiced against the statebred races. I don't like Moreno all that much. I may have been fooled by the fast Brooklyn time as well. But I'm not crazy about Romansh either and he feels like a "default favorite" rather than a division leader type.

Maybe 8-1 to 12-1 range on paper?

I completely respect your abilities and skill that you have shown on this board.

Zivo was 19-1 with a few minutes to go, that's what the public thought along with some very sharp players. They valued Zivo at about 19-1 not 13-1 or 8-1. Someone thought that the odds were misaligned and took the plunge. I'm impressed.

[Robert Goren]

Exactly what happened after the gates opened that would have caused anyone to pastpost on Zivo even if they had a chance? If there something there, I can't see it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

I completely respect your abilities and skill that you have shown on this board.

Zivo was 19-1 with a few minutes to go, that's what the public thought along with some very sharp players. They valued Zivo at about 19-1 not 13-1 or 8-1. Someone thought that the odds were misaligned and took the plunge. I'm impressed.

Takes a lot of guts to go after an overlay that may be 8-1 even if he's 19-1 on the board. 8-1 is still only about 11% hit rate.

It's hard for me to say after the race. If you had asked me before post time, maybe I would say 15-1 to 20-1? Who knows...

Dutrow would occasionally take a Ny-Bred and win a bigger open stakes when they came up light, or when his horse got a great trip.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by raybo

If you DON'T assume that Zivo can't get the distance, then he rated in the top 3 or 4 in many categories, and certainly 13/1 odds would have been an overlay, by quite a bit, IMO.

Here are some shots of my program showing various rankings methods:

If you assume that Zivo would transfer his 1 Mile late pace ratings against NY Breds to 1 1/4 Miles against open company and if you assume that he would carry his final time numbers and if ..... But someone out there wasn't guessing with $20's. Were you confident enough in your ratings to take advantage of the perceived overlay by betting say $5k or are we talking after the fact?

We have to assume that these success rates of late plunges are out of the norm and that the investors are not making 13 times their money with every late wager. They are probably yielding 3% or so.

Come on, I'm trying to watch Roger at Wimbledon.

[Robert Goren]

I might be wrong but I think even a person worth a billion dollars is going to want more than an 11% hit rate if he is wagering $100k on a horse race at 11/1 odds. Did the other pools(Exactas and Doubles) take a hit as well on Zivo late?
Does some one have the probable DD payoffs with this field and the winner of the previous race? I would to see if they indicate probable odds off 18/1 or 11/1 or something else.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Takes a lot of guts to go after an overlay that may be 8-1 even if he's 19-1 on the board. 8-1 is still only about 11% hit rate.

It's hard for me to say after the race. If you had asked me before post time, maybe I would say 15-1 to 20-1? Who knows...

Dutrow would occasionally take a Ny-Bred and win a bigger open stakes when they came up light, or when his horse got a great trip.

Thank you. Exactly what I was trying to say. What you articulated in one sentence took me three pages to not get across.

Assume Zivo did not win and assume the bet was made 10 minutes to Post. How could someone not be impressed with the preciseness of this bettor(s)? They are going to be wrong so many times but they have it down to a science and are risking incredible amounts of money and know what their year end yield will be.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

If you assume that Zivo would transfer his 1 Mile late pace ratings against NY Breds to 1 1/4 Miles against open company and if you assume that he would carry his final time numbers and if ..... But someone out there wasn't guessing with $20's. Were you confident enough in your ratings to take advantage of the perceived overlay by betting say $5k or are we talking after the fact?

We have to assume that these success rates of late plunges are out of the norm and that the investors are not making 13 times their money with every late wager. They are probably yielding 3% or so.

Come on, I'm trying to watch Roger at Wimbledon.

Are there systems out there that make adjustments for a jockey that won the last 2 races (also graded stakes mind you) including being the pilot of a new track record and rolling home on a 23/1 shot in the race prior while now riding a horse coming off of 5 straight wins and had never missed hitting the board in 14 career races? A horse who was as good of a closer as any in a 10 furlong race?

Let us not forget that this wasn't that strong of a G2 field in my opinion. The favorites in had all shown the ability to really throw clunkers out there and the field was a collective 3 for 18 at the distance.

I did lay down a token wager on the largely due to Lezcano and that he was as strong a closer as any in the race. I was mainly on the and he really came up short yesterday.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by KingChas

Your answer is the point of this thread



Believe what you are told.
Good for You............

You think the races are that crooked and you still bet them? You got me beat.

[classhandicapper]

Zivo is a very nice horse, but he won yesterday because of the trip he got on that track. IMO a few of the better horses were disadvantaged. So the race kind of fell apart.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

You think the races are that crooked and you still bet them? You got me beat.

Perception and reality. When someone "perceives" that impropriety has occurred they often believe that it is fact, and state it as such, when in actuality, nothing improper occurred. Or, some real cases of impropriety occurred and were reported in the past, causing some to think that it is a common occurrence, when in fact, it is not.

I think that the odds drop in this case was just simply some last second bettors realizing that Zivo was much better suited to this race than the odds represented. The delay caused by off-track wagering entities sending in their bets is a problem, and is "perceived" by some to be improper, when in fact it is just a result of non-state of the art systems, both at the track and at the off-track entities.

[reckless]

Many good points throughout this thread but it is my opinion that if the racetracks closed and locked all betting three or so minutes before the race starts then most fans and bettors would have more confidence in this great game of ours.

It seems that every day at every venue there are similar examples of odds' drops that result in many of us simply shaking our heads. This has been discussed here quite often and it seems to have no end.

I sadly believe that there is some real chicanery going on and when horses go from 19-1 to 13-1, even in graded stakes races in New York, it leaves a bad taste in one's mouth.

Sure, of course, one could never prove any wrongdoing by racetracks. but if Zivo was truly a mispriced overlay, then he was also mispriced throughout the betting cycle, especially with 8-5-3 minutes before post time.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Are there systems out there that make adjustments for a jockey that won the last 2 races (also graded stakes mind you) including being the pilot of a new track record and rolling home on a 23/1 shot in the race prior while now riding a horse coming off of 5 straight wins and had never missed hitting the board in 14 career races? A horse who was as good of a closer as any in a 10 furlong race?

Let us not forget that this wasn't that strong of a G2 field in my opinion. The favorites in had all shown the ability to really throw clunkers out there and the field was a collective 3 for 18 at the distance.

I did lay down a token wager on the largely due to Lezcano and that he was as strong a closer as any in the race. I was mainly on the and he really came up short yesterday.

I hear you. All I was trying to say was that the world at large had this horse at 19-1. That's including informed money and uniformed money. Including those that thought he was a good price because he was going to transfer his late pace figures into yesterday's race. But the market had him at 19-1 which also considered the Jockey. Someone(s) thought that 13-1 would represent tremendous value and bet Zivo until the odds offered reached 13-1.