Capper Al's hierarchy of handicapping

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Did Dave advertise it as "the only one absolute truth toward profitability"...or was that your idea?

I don't remember Dave saying anything about "one truth" in racing, but he did "seemingly" support Al's natural odds theory (which is as close to the Al's "one truth" as we ever got), that's why Dave was not included in all the drama that ensued. I haven't read Dave's book, but if he states the "one truth" in racing in it, then there must be a whole lot more profitable players around now, because I'm sure he sold more than a few copies.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Al, I like your enthusiasm...but even you must admit that your "one and only absolute truth toward profitability" thread was a little unusual. You started the thread off as if you were testing us on whether or not we knew this "one absolute truth"...and you even asked us to submit the answer to you by personal message -- if we thought that we knew it. Everybody assumed that you would eventually supply the answer yourself somewhere in the thread...but then you came on and said that you couldn't reveal this "one and only absolute truth"...because it originated from Dave -- and Dave was selling it...so you couldn't infringe on his copyright of the product.

And those of us who never bought the item from Dave still have no idea what this "only absolute truth towards profitability" really is.

At least that's how I remember it...

Fair enough. If anyone wants an explanation they can buy Dave's product. I should add that I have every respect for Raybo. I just want to have fun posting. I don't want to come under attack everytime I post something.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Fair enough. If anyone wants an explanation they can buy Dave's product. I should add that I have every respect for Raybo. I just want to have fun posting. I don't want to come under attack everytime I post something.

Hello Al,

Are you saying that the thread was nothing more than a sales pitch for Dave's book?

Did you take advantage of all those people that added content to your thread?

Answer the question you posed in your own words and make everyone happy. Dave's already made as much as he's going to on the book. I'm sure he'll release you from any plagerism claims.

Mysteries are meant to be solved.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Hello Al,

Are you saying that the thread was nothing more than a sales pitch for Dave's book?

Did you take advantage of all those people that added content to your plagerism?
Answer the question you posed in your own words and make everyone happy. Dave's already made as much as he's going to on the book. I'm sure he'll release you from any plagerism claims.

Mysteries are meant to be solved.

I had nothing to do with promoting sales of the Dave's product other than my own excitement from having had come to the same conclusion years before on my own.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Hello Al,

Are you saying that the thread was nothing more than a sales pitch for Dave's book?

Did you take advantage of all those people that added content to your thread?

Answer the question you posed in your own words and make everyone happy. Dave's already made as much as he's going to on the book. I'm sure he'll release you from any plagerism claims.

Mysteries are meant to be solved.

Al

Why did you change the word thread to plagerism? Weird.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Al

Why did you change the word thread to plagerism? Weird.

It was a copy and paste error. How did you come up with plagerism? This is too crazy for me. Didn't you catch that they were trying to make something out of what I posted? Enough of this conversation. Like I said, all I want to do is post with some flare at times. If people agree or disagree with my handicapping theories it doesn't matter. If they don't get what I have to say, it isn't some conspiracy or false statement generated on my part. I post what I do and believe and try to have fun doing it.

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, that other thread was a real drag, once it became clear that the question was rhetorical.

It wasn't well received, and Capper Al had to notice that.

What about the merits of this thread?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I had nothing to do with promoting sales of the Dave's product other than my own excitement from having had come to the same conclusion years before on my own.

I must have missed the other thread topic / discussion. It seems you're not going to reveal this "one truth" but, do you still feel it's still valid? There was another thread which you wanted to test some attributes, I don't get it. Is there or isn't there "one truth"?

Thanks,

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It was a copy and paste error. How did you come up with plagerism? This is too crazy for me. Didn't you catch that they were trying to make something out of what I posted? Enough of this conversation. Like I said, all I want to do is post with some flare at times. If people agree or disagree with my handicapping theories it doesn't matter. If they don't get what I have to say, it isn't some conspiracy or false statement generated on my part. I post what I do and believe and try to have fun doing it.

Having fun is what it's all about. As far as what you believe, everyone is hoping to hear just that. What is the TRUTH you are talking about?

It's always interesting to hear other peoples theories, approaches, ideas etc. You do a great job generating participation. That's why everyone is hoping you will share the TRUTH with them.

Keep up the good work, the suspense has everyone at the edge of their keyboard.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Yes, that other thread was a real drag, once it became clear that the question was rhetorical.

It wasn't well received, and Capper Al had to notice that.

What about the merits of this thread?

Agree. This topic had potential.

[notoutofpounds]

Originally Posted by raybo

Not going to get into a big argument here but, just saying; you stated something as the "only truth" in racing, and led people on forever, and then never proved your point. In other words, it was a huge waste of time, and appeared to be nothing more than another attempt to create drama and conflict.

This is the one truth.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by notoutofpounds

This is the one truth.

One more time:

The Absolute Truth is that handicapping selections are preferred to random selections. If one is a descent handicapper and gets random odds (based on today's field size) on a horse then over the long run one should come out ahead. If you don't believe this then why are you handicapping at all?

The point is that this is the only thing we really know for sure about the handicapping process. We won't know what would happen if we ran a race a 100 times, or if there is any real credence to such thought. We don't know for sure if speed is going to hold up today or not, or if class tells today. We can't really make an accurate odds line for each and every race. What we do know is that handicapping works over the long out picking random selection. The Absolute Truth says that if this is the only thing we know for sure then this is the way to wager until we find some other truth to bet on. And, for me at least, nothing else has stood the test of time except this truth-- Handicapping is preferred to random selection. Bet it that way.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

One more time:

The Absolute Truth is that handicapping selections are preferred to random selections. If one is a descent handicapper and gets random odds (based on today's field size) on a horse then over the long run one should come out ahead. If you don't believe this then why are you handicapping at all?

The point is that this is the only thing we really know for sure about the handicapping process. We won't know what would happen if we ran a race a 100 times, or if there is any real credence to such thought. We don't know for sure if speed is going to hold up today or not, or if class tells today. We can't really make an accurate odds line for each and every race. What we do know is that handicapping works over the long out picking random selection. The Absolute Truth says that if this is the only thing we know for sure then this is the way to wager until we find some other truth to bet on. And, for me at least, nothing else has stood the test of time except this truth-- Handicapping is preferred to random selection. Bet it that way.

That may be "true" for you, but it is a purely subjective, internal "truth" that applies only to you. That is a long, long way from "Absolute Truth."

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

One more time:

The Absolute Truth is that handicapping selections are preferred to random selections. If one is a descent handicapper and gets random odds (based on today's field size) on a horse then over the long run one should come out ahead. If you don't believe this then why are you handicapping at all?

The point is that this is the only thing we really know for sure about the handicapping process. We won't know what would happen if we ran a race a 100 times, or if there is any real credence to such thought. We don't know for sure if speed is going to hold up today or not, or if class tells today. We can't really make an accurate odds line for each and every race. What we do know is that handicapping works over the long out picking random selection. The Absolute Truth says that if this is the only thing we know for sure then this is the way to wager until we find some other truth to bet on. And, for me at least, nothing else has stood the test of time except this truth-- Handicapping is preferred to random selection. Bet it that way.

Thanks for your insight.

Knew someone who did what your saying and definitely won. Had the patience to sit there all day waiting for opportunity to knock.

"Only wager on your selection when the general public provides you with a minimum of natural odds" was his way of explaining.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by traynor

That may be "true" for you, but it is a purely subjective, internal "truth" that applies only to you. That is a long, long way from "Absolute Truth."

Wrong. It is the most absolute and objective truth of all. One doesn't ever know the horse and how it will run today, but they do know their own handicapping strengths and weaknesses. with this method your wagering is focused on what you know for sure. the horse is only the object of our handicapping not the subject. Knowing the horse is an illusion. What we know are numbers.