Capper Al's hierarchy of handicapping

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by burnsy

That's the best thing you wrote on this thread and the only thing you need to know to be a good gambler. Some people know every stat, number and process but they can't gamble worth shit. If one can't think outside the lines.........stick to crayons.

Yep, the capper gets seduced into believing that they can avoid the gamble by using their numbers.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by burnsy

That's the best thing you wrote on this thread and the only thing you need to know to be a good gambler. Some people know every stat, number and process but they can't gamble worth shit. If one can't think outside the lines.........stick to crayons.

It's always been about risk versus potential reward. But, handicapping skills don't hurt. Without handicapping skills one doesn't know if the risk/reward is positive or negative.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The question is how did you get to this understanding? You must have evolved somehow through trial and error and growth.

Yes. I got to this point in handicapping life from losing, and from trial and error.

I started making $2 place bets when my company went to Canterbury in the late "80's. Went with a friend the following year made place bets, the a customer of mine suggested the way to make money is to play 3 horse exacta boxes. I used the newspaper grid of public handicappers, and if I remember took the consensus top, third and a horse of my choosing and lost $120 in ten races.

I wondered how handicappers selected their horses since they all looked the same to my untrained eye. So I bought my first handicapping book, "Eliminating the Losers" by Bob McKnight.

I felt proud to handicap and collect on my first wining bet from my own handicapping. But since the book was written in the 1960's racing was different then. Horses ran every other week on average, and his method said not to rate horses if off a lay off.

By the 1990's only the cheapest tracks ran horses every 2-3 weeks.

So I bought more books to see if other opinions and methods had merit.

If something made sense to me I incorporated it into my handicapping, if something didn't work out it went. Sometimes a book or article had only one valuable item. Great!

I try to keep my handicapping simple. Too many factors is confusing and either leads to chalk if they all point to one horse, or is confusing if each factor leads to 6 different horses.

I handicap with pen and paper and have it down that I can do each race in less than five minutes, and since I only want good bets, 2-4 win bets per card on average, I'm looking for any reason to pass a race.

I just finished Belmont's Friday 6/27 card and will not make any bets.

So I will not have any losers!

[HUSKER55]

When I made that post I thought I was keeping things simple.

When a punter starts he thinks that anyone can do this. Then the punter finds out you have to study and "climb the ladder", (I used trees). Everyone scores on their way up, (picking apples),or else why would you do it. then you find out that to bet the big bucks to make big money takes a lot more work, (elephants in the trees). If you want to make a living doing this you have to climb the tree.

We all die hunting for the holy grail, (or picking apples), because only a few make it to the top of the tree. Sooner or later we find out swinging from tree to tree does not cut it.

For those of you who did not follow that....then your problem has nothing to do with the amount of work that you do.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

When I made that post I thought I was keeping things simple.

When a punter starts he thinks that anyone can do this. Then the punter finds out you have to study and "climb the ladder", (I used trees). Everyone scores on their way up, (picking apples),or else why would you do it. then you find out that to bet the big bucks to make big money takes a lot more work, (elephants in the trees). If you want to make a living doing this you have to climb the tree.

We all die hunting for the holy grail, (or picking apples), because only a few make it to the top of the tree. Sooner or later we find out swinging from tree to tree does not cut it.

For those of you who did not follow that....then your problem has nothing to do with the amount of work that you do.

I agree with the generality of what you said. This would apply in a way to Maslow's hierarchy too. Journalizing the trip to the top of the tree and making categories of neighborhoods on the way up, like Maslow did, is what I was aiming for with the hierarchies. One might see a top skater perform and appreciate their dance and not be able to duplicate their performance themself.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The idea here is like Maslow's Pyramid. Let's do this upside in reverse going from the lowest to the highest.

• Form Reader with basic math formulas like Earnings Per Start.
• System players like the Dot system including rudimentary eliminations rules.
• Factor players like Class, Speed, Trip, Pace, and even Comprehensive.
• Race Classification players like Quinn differentiating by classification. This is what one looks for in a claiming race which is different than an allowance race, etc.
• At the top, the self actualization is Form and Intent (Willingness and able). How will your horse run today? Will the barn go for it? Understanding of form cycle and trainers is needed here.

How would you make the handicapper's pyramid?

good thread idea Capper Al

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

good thread idea Capper Al

Thanks. I thought this subject had potential. I couldn't be the only one here who tweaked their methods and watched their pick just walk out of the gate while the other horses ran out. This is what I was referring to as the tip of the hierarchy, knowing the gamble.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

If you care to reread that thread, your "truth" was never proven to be truth, except to you.

Let me remind you about the origins of the post. I bought Dave's "Basics of Winning" and was excited that we came to the same conclusion independent of each other. People like yourself jump on me for posting the "One Truth" thread which was free to the readers here.Not one person has jumped on Dave for charging them money for the same truth. Why? If this truth is false, wouldn't you think that those who purchased Dave's product have a bigger complaint against Dave then me who didn't charge people a dime? Why isn't anyone jumping all over Dave? Not that I'm recommending that anyone should jump on Dave. What he published was true even if you don't get it.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Let me remind you about the origins of the post. I bought Dave's "Basics of Winning" and was excited that we came to the same conclusion independent of each other. People like yourself jump on me for posting the "One Truth" thread which was free to the readers here.Not one person has jumped on Dave for charging them money for the same truth. Why? If this truth is false, wouldn't you think that those who purchased Dave's product have a bigger complaint against Dave then me who didn't charge people a dime? Why isn't anyone jumping all over Dave? Not that I'm recommending that anyone should jump on Dave. What he published was true even if you don't get it.

Not going to get into a big argument here but, just saying; you stated something as the "only truth" in racing, and led people on forever, and then never proved your point. In other words, it was a huge waste of time, and appeared to be nothing more than another attempt to create drama and conflict.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

Not going to get into a big argument here but, just saying; you stated something as the "only truth" in racing, and led people on forever, and then never proved your point. In other words, it was a huge waste of time, and appeared to be nothing more than another attempt to create drama and conflict.

You don't want an argument when I take the time to defend myself with what I consider a pretty good retort. And then you get into your old song and dance and completely ignore what I said. If you want details buy Dave's "Basics of Winning". You don't have to believe me or attack me. You just don't get it and leave it at that.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

You don't want an argument when I take the time to defend myself with what I consider a pretty good retort. And then you get into your old song and dance and completely ignore what I said. If you want details buy Dave's "Basics of Winning". You don't have to believe me or attack me. You just don't get it and leave it at that.

To the best of my memory, there were a huge number of posts and posters in that thread and the only one that "seemed" to support your "one truth" theory was Dave. So, are we to believe that you two are right and all the many others who disagreed with you are wrong? Some of the brightest people on this forum stated their belief that there is no "one truth" in racing, but I suppose you and Dave are the experts on this, or any other forum, and everybody else is just stupid and "doesn't get it", even though you offered no proof of your claim.

I will not entertain your need for drama, argument, and ego stroking further on this subject, so save us all the aggravation and just move on.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Let me remind you about the origins of the post. I bought Dave's "Basics of Winning" and was excited that we came to the same conclusion independent of each other. People like yourself jump on me for posting the "One Truth" thread which was free to the readers here.Not one person has jumped on Dave for charging them money for the same truth. Why? If this truth is false, wouldn't you think that those who purchased Dave's product have a bigger complaint against Dave then me who didn't charge people a dime? Why isn't anyone jumping all over Dave? Not that I'm recommending that anyone should jump on Dave. What he published was true even if you don't get it.

Did Dave advertise it as "the only one absolute truth toward profitability"...or was that your idea?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

To the best of my memory, there were a huge number of posts and posters in that thread and the only one that "seemed" to support your "one truth" theory was Dave. So, are we to believe that you two are right and all the many others who disagreed with you are wrong? Some of the brightest people on this forum stated their belief that there is no "one truth" in racing, but I suppose you and Dave are the experts on this, or any other forum, and everybody else is just stupid and "doesn't get it", even though you offered no proof of your claim.

I will not entertain your need for drama, argument, and ego stroking further on this subject, so save us all the aggravation and just move on.

You want to get the last punch in? I'm afraid not. The point is that you attacked me not Dave. Your fury was targeted in a personal way by not including Dave too. You were out to destroy me, not counter an argument. And you have the never to call what I did self-indulging. Shame on you.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

You want to get the last punch in? I'm afraid not. The point is that you attacked me not Dave. Your fury was targeted in a personal way by not including Dave too. You were out to destroy me, not counter an argument. And you have the never to call what I did self-indulging. Shame on you.

Al, I like your enthusiasm...but even you must admit that your "one and only absolute truth toward profitability" thread was a little unusual. You started the thread off as if you were testing us on whether or not we knew this "one absolute truth"...and you even asked us to submit the answer to you by personal message -- if we thought that we knew it. Everybody assumed that you would eventually supply the answer yourself somewhere in the thread...but then you came on and said that you couldn't reveal this "one and only absolute truth"...because it originated from Dave -- and Dave was selling it...so you couldn't infringe on his copyright of the product.

And those of us who never bought the item from Dave still have no idea what this "only absolute truth towards profitability" really is.

At least that's how I remember it...

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Did Dave advertise it as "the only one absolute truth toward profitability"...or was that your idea?

That was me. .A point of view that I still hold.