Capper Al's hierarchy of handicapping

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

Maybe you should have titled the thread, "How does a handicapper develop", not "Capper Al's hierarchy of handicapping". That tends to make people think the thread is all about you, and what you think, or think you know, not how other handicappers develop over time. Your history here tends to precede you in such matters.

You might be on to something here. I do enjoy to go all out. Could be a bad habit. My plan was to come back to PA and to publish some testing for my new system. This place is good for criticism. That should help me with my study. I think I'll go back to the plan.

[Tom]

How would you make the handicapper's pyramid?

What is so hard to understand here?
He presented a point of view and asked for others.

Isn't that why we are here?

Here is my take on it -

1. What type of race is it? What kind of horse do we expect to win races like this? (ie, Maiden claimer, Gr1, allowance Turf route, 3yo claimer....

2. How does each horse match up on those expectations?

3. Are there any factors that may dominate today? (Strong track bias....)

4. What are the provable outcome scenarios for this race, and how likely is each to occur?

5. The horse - speed, pace, form, trainer, jockey, class......

6. Last minute considerations - the horse's appearance, odds, odds changes, "buzz",

7. Betting options - how do you maximize your return on this race?

8. Post-race - what happened, why? Did you glean something to help in later races today? Did the track "change"

[JohnGalt1]

Each type of race I weight the factors differently.

For marathons, 1 1/4 and longer, in order of importance--1) Performance Class Rating and distance breeding (tied) 2) if turf race, turf breeding. 3) Final fraction 4) Form

For turf routes, 1) PCR 2) pace/speed rating 3) Form 4)Turf breeding 5)Trainer win % of 25% or higher in turf races or 30% or higher in objective factors like 1st or 2nd after claim, long lay offs, etc. and Jockey/Trainer together win % 305 and higher.

Dirt Routes 1) PCR 2) pace/speed rating 3) Form 4) Trainer 5)jockey/trainer

Sprints 1) pace/speed rating 2) PCR 3) Form. 4)Trainer 5 Jockey/trainer

Maiden Special. All tied at most important PCR, pace/speed, form, breeding for first or second timers, trainer win % for first or second starters--must be higher than 30% with at least 4 wins. and Jockey/trainer

Maiden Claimers. 1)Breeding for first and second timers and class droppers since it's a new race for them at the class, (Thanks Mike Helm for this tip.) 2) pace and speed rating, 3)form 4)Trainer win % for first and second starts at 30% or higher. 5)Jockey/trainer. 6) PCR because it is usually unreliable do to the numerous in the money finishes of horses with many races inflating the rating.

I'll also play a few quarter horse races. 1) Speed 2)speed 3)speed, etc.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

What is so hard to understand here?
He presented a point of view and asked for others.

Isn't that why we are here?

"

Thanks. That's what I thought too.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Each type of race I weight the factors differently.

For marathons, 1 1/4 and longer, in order of importance--1) Performance Class Rating and distance breeding (tied) 2) if turf race, turf breeding. 3) Final fraction 4) Form

For turf routes, 1) PCR 2) pace/speed rating 3) Form 4)Turf breeding 5)Trainer win % of 25% or higher in turf races or 30% or higher in objective factors like 1st or 2nd after claim, long lay offs, etc. and Jockey/Trainer together win % 305 and higher.

Dirt Routes 1) PCR 2) pace/speed rating 3) Form 4) Trainer 5)jockey/trainer

Sprints 1) pace/speed rating 2) PCR 3) Form. 4)Trainer 5 Jockey/trainer

Maiden Special. All tied at most important PCR, pace/speed, form, breeding for first or second timers, trainer win % for first or second starters--must be higher than 30% with at least 4 wins. and Jockey/trainer

Maiden Claimers. 1)Breeding for first and second timers and class droppers since it's a new race for them at the class, (Thanks Mike Helm for this tip.) 2) pace and speed rating, 3)form 4)Trainer win % for first and second starts at 30% or higher. 5)Jockey/trainer. 6) PCR because it is usually unreliable do to the numerous in the money finishes of horses with many races inflating the rating.

I'll also play a few quarter horse races. 1) Speed 2)speed 3)speed, etc.

The question is how did you get to this understanding? You must have evolved somehow through trial and error and growth.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Tom

What is so hard to understand here?
He presented a point of view and asked for others.

Isn't that why we are here?

Here is my take on it -

1. What type of race is it? What kind of horse do we expect to win races like this? (ie, Maiden claimer, Gr1, allowance Turf route, 3yo claimer....

4. What are the provable outcome scenarios for this race, and how likely is each to occur?

5. The horse - speed, pace, form, trainer, jockey, class......

FWIW, I really like the above. Btw, the others are also good.

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The idea here is like Maslow's Pyramid. Let's do this upside in reverse going from the lowest to the highest.

• Form Reader with basic math formulas like Earnings Per Start.
• System players like the Dot system including rudimentary eliminations rules.
• Factor players like Class, Speed, Trip, Pace, and even Comprehensive.
• Race Classification players like Quinn differentiating by classification. This is what one looks for in a claiming race which is different than an allowance race, etc.
• At the top, the self actualization is Form and Intent (Willingness and able). How will your horse run today? Will the barn go for it? Understanding of form cycle and trainers is needed here.

How would you make the handicapper's pyramid?

Al, a little clarification please?..............are we discussing Factors or are we talking about the Handicapping Process?..........we seem to be getting both!!!

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Maybe your "will the barn go for it" reference turned people off.

Putting this on top hit the nail on the head even if it may have pissed some people which I don't beleive was the case. The beauty with "will they go for it" elavates handicapping from a science to an art.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Al, a little clarification please?..............are we discussing Factors or are we talking about the Handicapping Process?..........we seem to be getting both!!!

+1

I thought this was about the evolution of the handicapping process in the larger scheme for the handicapper, not as it applies to a particular race?

Liked M_L's Circles of Hell line, but that's another story.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Al, a little clarification please?..............are we discussing Factors or are we talking about the Handicapping Process?..........we seem to be getting both!!!

My original intent was to discuss the growth of the handicapper more with the software coder in mind like myself. But I enjoy talking handicapping, so it's okay with if people want to chime in with where they are at. There's been some good pointers brought up.

[Capper Al]

The height of understanding for me was understanding the gamble, not a mechanical process which so many handicappers strive for.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

ok.....I will try......

me Tarzan king of jungle... the easy life begins

me Tarzan can't see for the trees

me Tarzan climb higher to get a better view

me Tarzan get hungry, this is work..but the view from the top will be worth it

me Tarzan grab apples on way up the tree...everyone has to eat

me Tarzan,... when did elephants start hiding in trees

Dearly departed, Tarzan died picking apples

Angry bird.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by traynor

When one asks for the opinion of another, it is unseemly to be distressed when that opinion is provided, honestly and without malice. Such distress might be interpreted (correctly or incorrectly) as a generic underlying fear of losing control.

Trayon, do you understand what you mean? Then that makes one of us.

[raybo]

If we're talking handicapping evolution process, then mine was:

1. Finding out what the tote board was really telling me. And learning to read the DRF.
2. Studying and cataloging many hundreds of results charts from the newspaper, in a notebook.
3. Breaking those results down by track, then later by surface, distance, age, and race classification, all pen and paper stuff, and studying the relationships between off odds and hit percentages, also the relationships between odds spreads and vertical exotic payouts (Exacta first, then later Tri, and finally Super), at various tracks, with the goal of being able to accurately estimate exotic payouts.
4. Buying a cassette fed computer (TI-99) to start learning Basic programming, and later a Tandy Color Trac !! (I think that was the name) and purchasing a handicapping program, on cassette tape, and printing out the "Basic" code from it, to get ideas for writing my own program.
5. Giving up on Basic programming after discovering Excel spreadsheets.
6. Manually typing in the raw data into Excel and writing formulas to manipulate that data.
7. Learning to record and modify VBA macros for importing Bris data files into Excel, to create PPs that included my own factors calculated within Excel. The rankings priorities have always been track, surface, distance, age/class specific, in nature, relying on pace, speed, and form cycle analysis for the final rankings. Also created a limited, simplistic Excel database program for historical research.
8. Became highly influenced by Sartin and began velocities based pace analysis, rather than pace and speed figure analysis.
9. The "AllData Project" was begun, and via Harry ("Hcap"), we got everything automated within Excel without external data parsing, and we evolved into batch processing capabilities with file export, which led to a full blown Excel database app for querying and model creation for daily play.
10. Randy Giles' PPG work "grabbed me by the collar" and I began work on the "RS Black Box" program, and emphasizing small, recent, track specific databases for win contender eliminations.
11. Many, many versions of the BB later, brings me up to today.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The height of understanding for me was understanding the gamble, not a mechanical process which so many handicappers strive for.

That's the best thing you wrote on this thread and the only thing you need to know to be a good gambler. Some people know every stat, number and process but they can't gamble worth shit. If one can't think outside the lines.........stick to crayons.