Tonalist

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by pandy

When you look at the recent history of the Belmont, with winners like Sarava (70-1), Da'Tara (37-1), Ruler On Ice (25-1), Birdstone (36-1), and even past history, with Temperence Hill (53-1), and other longshot winners, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid, Pass Catcher (34-1), there are a lot of horses that won this race that looked a lot weaker, on paper, than Tonalist.

The thing is, some of these colts have not fired their best race yet. These are not older horses with established form. Any horse can jump up and run the race of its lifetime. That's one of the reasons why the Belmont is unpredictable, that and the distance.

that's always scary..but what can you do? you have to toss your hands up and say what you always say "how the frig did that horse win"

tonalist should be a major player in here by default

[Robert Fischer]

Tonalist is certainly one of the secondary group of contenders after California Chrome.

The 11 post probably reduces his value somewhat. Now we have a possibility that even if he is the 2nd best horse, and Chrome doesn't get 12furlongs, he could still use enough horse going wide that he can't win.

We also had Palace Malice and First Dude in recent years contend well enough that it's clear that the outside post is not impossible to overcome.

The pace scenario also suggests that Tonalist will not be eliminated during the run to the first turn. We'll see Samraat and Chrome go to the lead. General a Rod will be urged from the gate to attend the pace. Tonalist is able to advance to a very nice mid-pack sweet spot if he isn't tardy at the break and caught behind rivals.

Overall, if they avoid deal-breaking trips, the horses best suited to the Belmont Stakes should have a chance to contend, given the moderate pace and long distance.

[EMD4ME]

I could be wrong but pp 11 is a blessing. Only 2 speeds in the race, the 2 and 10. Tonalist should not be more then 2 back in 3rd into the wide and sweeping clubhouse turn. Plus, you have 3/16 of a mile from the break to the beginning of the turn. Finally, pp 11 will only help Tonalist's energy distribution as Rosario will be able to watch who does what out of the gate and just relax his horse. Don't see any scenario where Tonalist is worse than 2-3 wide into and around the turn.

Respectfully, EMD

[pandy]

On paper, it looks like that, but there are horses here that can leave if their riders want to. Besides Chrome and Tonalist, Ride On Curlin, Samraat, and General A Rod are all fast enough to leave and either set, press, or stalk the pace. Since most of the Belmont winners are either 1st or 2nd at the quarter pole, I wouldn't be surprised to see several leavers.

[ultracapper]

If Tonalist goes 3 wide around the first turn, start tearing up your tickets on him. No way will he overcome anything but the best trip around the first turn. He'd be better off 6 lengths back and on the rail than a pressing 3 deep on the first turn. Matter of fact, if Rosario gets him onto the rail on the first turn, I'll be watching him carefully.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I could be wrong but pp 11 is a blessing. Only 2 speeds in the race, the 2 and 10. Tonalist should not be more then 2 back in 3rd into the wide and sweeping clubhouse turn. Plus, you have 3/16 of a mile from the break to the beginning of the turn. Finally, pp 11 will only help Tonalist's energy distribution as Rosario will be able to watch who does what out of the gate and just relax his horse. Don't see any scenario where Tonalist is worse than 2-3 wide into and around the turn.

Respectfully, EMD

tonalist trip looks like it will be clean and slow on the lead.

sammy hasn't had the lead since the top of stretch in the G3 gotham three races back...he'll roll out the red carpet for tonalist

general has little shot to menace if he leaves here..ony way he leaves is because an overreation to being bogged down in the preakness, but if he does' he'll be toast..

although not reflective of things, and i;m reading behind things...medal count and wicked kind of scare me a little..either of these might want to push a little..if wicked leaves that changes things for tonalist

[Valuist]

Tonalist got a big Beyer, but a less than great TimeformUS fig. Having said that, IMO, a figure for a 1 1/8 mile race may be irrelevant when looking at a 1 1/2 mile race. Bloodlines and trainer become more important than the standard dirt race.

Clement has made a pretty good living getting horses to win going long, although mostly on grass. I'm gonna guess that if Tonalist doesn't win, or runs poorly, it will be because he's not good enough; the distance won't be the problem. Toss in the fact he's very lightly raced, so we don't really know his ceiling, and that he has already shown he can win over the Belmont track, have to include him in multirace exotics.

[ILovetheInner]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Tonalist got a big Beyer, but a less than great TimeformUS fig. Having said that, IMO, a figure for a 1 1/8 mile race may be irrelevant when looking at a 1 1/2 mile race. Bloodlines and trainer become more important than the standard dirt race.

Clement has made a pretty good living getting horses to win going long, although mostly on grass. I'm gonna guess that if Tonalist doesn't win, or runs poorly, it will be because he's not good enough; the distance won't be the problem. Toss in the fact he's very lightly raced, so we don't really know his ceiling, and that he has already shown he can win over the Belmont track, have to include him in multirace exotics.

That's where I am. Good rep colt down in Florida who ran to his form in the G2 Peter Pan. Clement is not an ambitious trainer, Evans is a patient owner, and neither are obsessed with the classics. If they thought the right placement after 2 1/2 months away would be to have him stakes debut against more experienced horses, and if he seemingly ran to expectations, it's worthwhile to respect that. This colt certainly has rights to move forward off his Peter Pan. Way tougher spot, carrying more weight way farther against way tougher, but if he is here that is because they think he belongs. And if they are thinking that, you have to file that as noteworthy. Ought not be left off tickets.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

What some people fail to realize is that Tonalist ran on a MONSTER speed biased track in that ALW at GP. His forward movement in the Peter Pan was expected. In the Peter Pan, he wasn't out quick but tugged to the lead on a day where 2/8 went wire to wire AND there was an OUTSIDE closer's bias. Tonalist raced in the 2 path throughout.

Tonalist is the better horse and it will show in the Belmont. CC will be lucky to run second. That is my humble opinion.

Humbly said... I tried to help people out with some tidbits that made this horse the obviously play in the Belmont.

Sorry to rant after a nice priced win but I am soooo proud of this horse

[Shelby]

NIIIIIIICE call!

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Shelby

NIIIIIIICE call!

I wish all picks worked out this way lol but I'll humbly say Thank you. It's not often you get a double race hidden fig. In other words both of his last figs were way too low due to being hurt by track biases.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good call EMD4ME and pele polo, who started this thread!!

[depalma113]

Congrats to those that backed Tonalist. I was completely wrong. I thought he needed a wet track.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Rosario will be a huge asset to Tonalist. Win or lose, I expect the correct ride.

Huge Rosario fan, and I simply did not give this line of thinking enough thought.

He gave Ride On Curlin his best ride in months in the Preakness, and then let Tonalist run his race yesterday. While accolades are deserving for Tonalist, Rosario deserves his kudos as well.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Congrats to those that backed Tonalist. I was completely wrong. I thought he needed a wet track.

Tonalist was my Best Bet on my website, and the off track did concern me but not as much as usual because it was not your typical sealed off track. It was not listed as sealed, and the rail was completely dead. It was a wide biased closer's track and Tonalist rushed up along the dead rail and wired the field against the bias.

As I mentioned several times on this board yesterday, many people apparently don't understand that young, lightly raced horses like this are eligible to improve sharply and that's what happened, especially with Medal Count and Commissioner, who both showed signs of improvement coming into the race. Of course Commissioner had by far the best pedigree for the race with 4 Belmont winners in his pedigree, as I noted in my analysis.

You can't handicap a race with horses that have only raced a handful of times the same way you handicap a race with older horses that have established their career best form. With young horses, you have to try and anticipate improving form.