Tonalist

[Robert Fischer]

Tonalist's body of work(regardless of how his Peter Pan is interpreted) put him in the contending group.

He has a chance.

[theotherside]

tonalist beat an absolute field of nothing in the peter pan.it looks like a powerful win but those wins always look big when achived against really weak fields.

[nearco]

Didn't that Japanese horse look like a worldbeater when he won the Peter Pan a few years ago? Was supposed to be the horse that was going to upset Big Brown's applecart, until he was scratched the day before the Belmont.
He never did live up to the hype afterwards.

[SandyW]

The 11 post does not win many Belmont's. Very tough to save ground at 1 1/2 miles.

Plus who did this horse beat on a off track in the Peter Pan.

Non Contender even with Rosario up.

[boys at tosconova]

post 11 stinks.

imo nobody really wants the lead in this race..the race speed besides chrome,...sammy and the general may not leave strong..

you have to push tonalist to the front for better or for worse....if he pulls a SI like in the preakness he'll be fighting for 3rd just like him..

as for "he beat nothing in the peter pan".....true...but who did chrome beat in the preakness......nobody.....wait,... ROC...1 horse..and from the looks of thsi race 3/4 horses might be better than ROC

[boys at tosconova]

even if people decide to toss tonalist...they will all be playing wicked, who tonalist beat in february...and they might run the similar races once again.

remember folks there are only 5/6 horses in the race with a chance to hit the board

the class is there. it's just not evident in print....the post and distance on the other hand, well...

[pandy]

Clement in the great equalizer here. This is a trainer who can get a first time starter, two or three year old, ready to win first time out going routes, even some at 9 furlongs, and he does it better than anyone in the sport. He must have some sort of training regimen that builds endurance. His horses run better longer earlier in their career than any trainer I've ever seen. And, he has zero positives, so he is the real deal, a master trainer.

[soupman2]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

even if people decide to toss tonalist...they will all be playing wicked, who tonalist beat in february...and they might run the similar races once again.

remember folks there are only 5/6 horses in the race with a chance to hit the board

the class is there. it's just not evident in print....the post and distance on the other hand, well...

Curious who you think are the 5/6 horses that can hit the board?

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by pandy

Clement in the great equalizer here. This is a trainer who can get a first time starter, two or three year old, ready to win first time out going routes, even some at 9 furlongs, and he does it better than anyone in the sport. He must have some sort of training regimen that builds endurance. His horses run better longer earlier in their career than any trainer I've ever seen. And, he has zero positives, so he is the real deal, a master trainer.

that would be GRASS horses in for the MOST part...very little dirt success in graded stakes routes...less than 10%...

[pandy]

That's true, he gets horses that are bred for turf, but I have seen him win going long on dirt first time out. The thing is, he is a great trainer and he is a distance specialist.

[EMD4ME]

What some people fail to realize is that Tonalist ran on a MONSTER speed biased track in that ALW at GP. His forward movement in the Peter Pan was expected. In the Peter Pan, he wasn't out quick but tugged to the lead on a day where 2/8 went wire to wire AND there was an OUTSIDE closer's bias. Tonalist raced in the 2 path throughout.

Tonalist is the better horse and it will show in the Belmont. CC will be lucky to run second. That is my humble opinion.

[depalma113]

In the last 36 years, only two horses have won the Peter Pan and the Belmont, AP Indy and Coastal.

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by depalma113

In the last 36 years, only two horses have won the Peter Pan and the Belmont, AP Indy and Coastal.

I think Danzig's Connection did it also in '86.

[ArlJim78]

Tonalists victory over Commissioner in the Peter Pan puts him in the rarified company of Danza, Ride On Curlin, Bayern, Chitu, Midnight Hawk, Wildcat Red, and General A Rod to name only a few who have also accomplished that feat.

[pandy]

When you look at the recent history of the Belmont, with winners like Sarava (70-1), Da'Tara (37-1), Ruler On Ice (25-1), Birdstone (36-1), and even past history, with Temperence Hill (53-1), and other longshot winners, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid, Pass Catcher (34-1), there are a lot of horses that won this race that looked a lot weaker, on paper, than Tonalist.

The thing is, some of these colts have not fired their best race yet. These are not older horses with established form. Any horse can jump up and run the race of its lifetime. That's one of the reasons why the Belmont is unpredictable, that and the distance.