New Morning Lines

[Ray2000]

A recent article (May 7) by Bob Pandolfo at DRF on the need for a better Morning Line has drawn several "agree with" comments.

http://www.drf.com/news/pandolfo-sea...r-morning-line

(sorry about the link, the search string is the only way I know to post it)


I also agree and would hope all tracks adopt the new TrackMaster Lines for the ML.
(Even tho it'll create a lot of work for me to adapt my robot )


I'm not sure how the TM Line beat the track ML in 2011.
It can be measured several ways like
Correlation to actual final odds?, ...Strike rate? ...ROI?
maybe Bob can answer?

In any case I would like to know if and when the individual tracks change over,
maybe they'll tell us.

Here's what I have for 2013 to date for Morning Line Pick 1 performance.

 track 	races	strike	roi
DD	2354	40%	0.848
HAR	1202	39%	0.846
STGA	2430	38%	0.886
MR	2341	38%	0.811
RIDC	1106	37%	0.839
FRD	806	37%	0.887
FHLD	1661	36%	0.796
PHL	2123	36%	0.809
PCD	2176	35%	0.801
BTVA	788	35%	0.893
NP	493	35%	0.911
BR	1802	35%	0.847
NFLD	3612	35%	0.793
MAY	1275	35%	0.806
GRVR	658	34%	0.890
HP	554	34%	0.911
CALX	851	34%	0.822
M	1216	31%	0.870
BMLP	1154	33%	0.804
ACES	252	33%	0.932
HOP	1460	32%	0.854
SCD	870	32%	0.798
YR	3647	32%	0.770
MEA	3281	32%	0.770
PPK	1401	32%	0.752
FLMD	1692	31%	0.718
PRC	569	31%	0.785
GEOD	184	30%	0.799
TGDN	599	30%	0.796
MOH	687	29%	0.747
VD	874	29%	0.731
WDB	1662	27%	0.728

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Ray
By strike rate I am assuming that it is the win percentage of the lowest morning line odds and the ROI is that one's payouts with respect to the total number of races run.

Most track odds makers (for a loss of a better term) would tell us that their job is not to predict winners; rather to predict the final odds of the horse.

To me that is something that cannot be accomplished as there are too many variables. A mistake of a large wager on the track or race number can change those final odds.

I think all odds makers should use this study as a guide. They should try to pick out the strongest horses and assigned them accordingly. To try to predict human performances is tougher that to predict animal performances when driven or ridden by men.

As always, Ray, you have the database that can be relied upon. It is great being part of your circle.

rtd

[LottaKash]

Thx for posting that list Ray....

And, an interesting article Pandy...

Funny thing tho, I had no idea that TM had anything like this going for it...

Me personally, I don't put too much stock in the ML's....But, on the other hand I know who's ML's are better than who's, so I guess I see it or use it more than I would care to admit...I am not sure which it is tho..haha..

One thing that I do know is, except for Pocono and Chester the tracks where I play and win the most "kash" at, are in the bottom 15 of Ray's-List...And, I believe, even tho Pocono and Chester are in the top tier, I think I do well there is because they are both tracks that I spend a lot of time doing the homework at....

So, at least on the surface of things, the tracks where I do best at are the tracks with the most unpredicatable ML's....Now, why would I want them to go and change anything ?...

[Ray2000]

Yes Bob, these numbers are for playing $2 Win bets on the Morning Line choice in each race, Jan 1, 2013 to May 26, 2014. I did a quick pull on the data so some races are excluded... races with 6 or less horses, Maiden races, races with coupled entries and races ending in dead heats.


The discussion on whether the morning line should reflect some expert's opinion of the probability of each horse winning or should it be an estimate of how the crowd will set the odds, has been debated ad nauseam among many sources. One can probably find some here at PACEAD by searching on Morning Line.


LK

As much as I complain about dumb Morning Lines, it still has the largest impact value on my bot's selections.

If I pass on all races where the robot's top pick is ranked 1,2 or 3 in the ML ...
then the ROI swings from negative to positive. (Or at least used to.. )

[mrroyboy]

Are the morning line odds in the Trackmaster PP's the trackmaster morning line or the track's morning line?

[David Siegel]

As always, I am happy to post to PA. Here is the definitive word on Morning Lines (MLs). Since the goal of the ML is to predict the off-odds, the way to measure accuracy is to measure how far a ML is from the off-odds (the difference). Here is how we did this. Then read on.

The average difference could be one meaningful measure, but if the ML
lines were balanced to start with, the average difference would be close to zero, assuming no scratches, so measuring the average difference would not be completely telling.

What would be telling, would be measuring the spread of the differences - but the differences of what? Is a line that has a horse at 5/1 with off odds of 10/1 more or less accurate than one that has a line of 1/2 that goes off at 7/5? TrackMaster established a scale of “levels”. Each level is one “step” up or down the table of industry-accepted standard odds levels as they appear on tote boards around the county. In the above example, 5/1 is level 18 and 10/1 is level 23. So a 5/1 ML horse off at 10/1 would have a difference of 5 levels. 1/2 is level 3 and 7/5 is level 8. So a 1/2 ML horse off at 7/5 would have a difference of 5 levels as well. In these two cases, we would conclude that the ML maker did an equally proficient job in these two cases, each being “wrong” by 5 levels.

This is a very reasonable approach and it has been accepted as such by a number of race secretaries and GMs as a reasonable measurement system.

Once this is in place, you can use a very standard statistical measurement system called STANDARD DEVIATION to measure the "spread" of the TrackMaster to Off Odds differences against the "spread" of the Track-generated to Off Odds differences. We did this (this is what Bob had), and TM had much less "spread" meaning, we were much more accurate.

ROI or Win% has nothing to do with this. Those are great measures for handicappers, or drivers, and the like. But the ML is supposed to, in theory, be one person's best estimate of where the PUBLIC WILL END UP in terms of off-odds.

While the data Bob showed was from 2011, we monitor the tracks that we do the lines for, or those we are talking to now, and nothing has changed. The morning lines we produce day in and day out do a much better job (measured like described above) predicting the off-odds than the humans. The sole exception (for the tracks we are reviewing) is the Meadowlands. They are on-par to ever so slightly better than what the computer has done of late.

[Ray2000]

David

Thanks for the description, looks like a well thought-out approach.

Can you tell us if any tracks are using or will be using Trackmaster morning lines?

[David Siegel]

As of this post, five tracks are currently using our Automated Morning Line (AML) - they are Tioga, Vernon, Monticello, Harrahs Philadelphia and Running Aces. There are some others that I expect to use them upon the opening of their next meet, but until they do, would prefer not to mention them until I know they have been used.

Let me be frank here, I am amazed that more are not using them. Many are still not aware of this great, free service provided by us and the USTA. But for those that are, when I can demonstrate absolutely that our lines are more accurate (closer to predicting the off odds than their current line maker), it is beyond my understanding why they would not use the superior line that also may save them money, save them time, is always balanced, is never influenced by outside factors, etc. etc.

Anyway, those are the (progressive) tracks that are using the line today.

[mrroyboy]

Ok but again the odds with your TM pp's? Those are YOUR morning lines not the tracks, correct???

[Ray2000]

Thanks for the information David,

Guess I'll need to revamp my "bettable" races at some tracks, they were based on my Pick 1 not being in the Morning line top 3. With a more predictable ML, the number of my wagers should decrease but I won't know until a new base is constructed. Fewer bets---improved ROI? Gotta hope

Can't see why some tracks wouldn't jump on it, ... should reduce complaints, but old ways die hard.



mrroyboy
I would assume whatever Line appears in the program, (bought at the track or purchased digitally from Track Master) is the racetrack's Morning line as made by their guy or by TM's formula. It's up to the track to inform the customer on how they make the line.

[David Siegel]

Bob has it right. The morning line that appears in the TM program, the printed track program, DRF products or any simulcast program are all the same. It is whatever morning line the track chooses to use. I am not sure why it matters where it came from, as even before the automated ML, no reader could know where it comes from as "Joe" could make it one day at the track and "Frank" another day. That said, even when a track uses the TM-generated line, they can chose to "override" any particular line at their pleasure. But for the most part, the five tracks currently using our line don't typcially override. In fact, I think there have been 7-8 such overrides and all but one resulted in a less accurate line.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am still puzzled why tracks continue with their own when a better one exists at no charge. But, that is what makes the world go 'round I guess.

[mrroyboy]

Thank you guys.

[Capper Al]

Raybo,

You should be rich by just playing your 35%+ tracks.

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Raybo,

You should be rich by just playing your 35%+ tracks.

Raybo has not even posted in this thread.

[Capper Al]

Raybo or ray2000, sorry for the mix up. Ray2000 then should be the rich man.