How to get rid of the favourite????????

[Robert Goren]

The most vulnerable favorite I have found is the "at least he has been beaten by better horses" ones. It often has better speed rating than others too although they were earned while running sixth or seventh. Public handicappers love these guys for some reason. I love them too, because I love betting against them.
The second most vulnerable favorite is the " the only good race in the PPs for every horse in the race was run by this horse in its last start" one. Usually has a stickout speed rating in that race too boot. If you go back and check out his good race, it is one of those "somebody had to run second" races and this guy ran third. He usually is a very short price often under even money. You are getting great value if you find another horse in his race.

[EMD4ME]

I love betting against a favorite who to the naked eye is the speed. However, upon careful (watching how horses break and taking notes on their gate speed) inspection, they won't smell the lead or will be burned on the lead. Many factors matter though... is the fav a need the leader? Are there at least 2 h's than can take the lead away? Jocks, etc.

[appistappis]

first time out after a low% trainer claims from a high% trainer.

[JackS]

I agree with this. The favorite may be deserving of favorite status and it's time to look at the possibilities of beating the 2nd and 3rd favorites in the exotics.
The 2nd favorite can also point to the possible overlay on the off time and deserving favorite.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It is possible to take an underlaid favorite...and create a profitable situation around him.

Rhetorical question?

[pandy]

Front runners in 5.5f sprints are often bad favorites. Jockeys tend to ride more aggressively in 5.5f races than they do in 6f races and the races are usually won by stalkers or closers.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by pandy

Front runners in 5.5f sprints are often bad favorites. Jockeys tend to ride more aggressively in 5.5f races than they do in 6f races and the races are usually won by stalkers or closers.

Also one of my favorites!!! 5.5 F distance is tricky.

[RaceBookJoe]

Originally Posted by PressThePace

Also one of my favorites!!! 5.5 F distance is tricky.

Saratoga usually loads up on the 5.5 F turf races, always like them for some reason, not as much as the 1 1/16 T ones, but I will still play them.

[DRIVEWAY]

There is a 3/5 M/L favorite in this race. How? Why?

Eliminate or Pass?

[HUSKER55]

i think 9f is wrong for this horse. I would eliminate this horse.

[HUSKER55]

And now you know why I drink....

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by pandy

One of the most common bad value favorites is a horse that earns a big speed figure but is not likely to repeat that figure - for instance, the horse that gets loose on the lead over a speed favoring track. I actually downgrade all wire to wire winners that won on a day when speed was carrying.

I could not agree more ! The most important paragraph on this thread.