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05-09-2014, 11:50 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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SRU-
Thanks for the alert. I just watched the replay, and the stretch run is clearly a stiff job. But up until that point, Smith seemed to be trying. Old Man pointed out that the horse had been off for a year and a half. It would appear that Smith was doing what he could, and he realized the horse wasn't going to fire enough to win. Although one could wonder if he had been riding thru the stretch, he could've maybe got 3rd. But the biggest difference between this and Berrio's ride is that I don't think Smith prevented his mount from winning.
I'll be curious to see how this horse runs next out. If he's a big price, he'd probably be worth throwing into some gimmicks.
This brings to mind another question: who in their right mind bets a horse off an 18 month layoff? And worse yet, who takes a low price on a horse off a year and a half layoff? Its good to know there's plenty of bettors who will.
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05-09-2014, 12:56 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I once asked a high level rider about stiff jobs and pulling horses and his response "why would I do that, what would I have to gain compared to everything I could lose?" I think it happens with smaller riders and cheaper tracks because there could be something to gain but with guys who are pulling 1mil+ a year I dont see how getting caught up with that small change stuff would make sense.
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05-09-2014, 03:49 PM
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#18
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryOldMan
Not arguing - you realize that the jockeys are making their $$ from the owners, right? Trainers equal or next.
Bettors like us don't factor into the equation. Not saying that's right or wrong -it is the reality.
If I owned a horse that had no shot at winning or cashing a decent owner's check, I don't think I'd want the jockey to whip the bejesus out of my horse down the stretch. Wait for another day.
Bettors like us are the sheep to be sheared. We don't count at all in the current scheme of things. Again - not saying that is right; just that we are the LAST people considered.
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Racing boards punish "lack of effort" and they do dole out punishments for riding "infractions" so the fact that they are riding for the owners and not the bettors isnt something that the horse racing board's care about.
So, if you are a jock who stops riding and costs yourself a board spot because you were "not beating up" an owners investment, you'll get fined or suspended for that even if you say "i was riding to instructions" or i was "riding for the owner"
With that said, you're right, jocks arent riding for bettors.
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05-09-2014, 03:57 PM
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#19
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
SRU-
Thanks for the alert. I just watched the replay, and the stretch run is clearly a stiff job. But up until that point, Smith seemed to be trying. Old Man pointed out that the horse had been off for a year and a half. It would appear that Smith was doing what he could, and he realized the horse wasn't going to fire enough to win. Although one could wonder if he had been riding thru the stretch, he could've maybe got 3rd. But the biggest difference between this and Berrio's ride is that I don't think Smith prevented his mount from winning.
I'll be curious to see how this horse runs next out. If he's a big price, he'd probably be worth throwing into some gimmicks.
This brings to mind another question: who in their right mind bets a horse off an 18 month layoff? And worse yet, who takes a low price on a horse off a year and a half layoff? Its good to know there's plenty of bettors who will.
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You're welcome!
I thought the same thing, AND, the horse was ridden by a guy like Smith who is going to be more "Conservative" than say a young jock trying to prove himself. It was a very silly bet by the public, they just bet the PPs and the numbers without taking into consideration the situation.
Sure, there are differences between the Smith ride and the Berrio ride, but can you really say Smith was "all in" and "hell bent to win" from the opening of the gate?
Smith didnt ride like he was the betting favorite and needed to give an aggressive ride, he rode like he was 50-1 and knew the horse "needed" the race.
Just wondering where we draw the line on this stuff.
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05-09-2014, 10:03 PM
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#20
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Delusional, compulsive liar and all around giant sack of shit
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 250
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I think when you have horses that really just needs the race and the jockey rides them like it's a workout rather than a race that it's up to the bettors to be able to see what the situation is when doing their handicapping and bet accordingly. I don't blame the trainer or the jockey. If the horse needs a race than he needs a race .
How many times have you seen a route horse come back from a long layoff in a sprint and the horse gets hammered at the windows because maybe he has a class or speed figure edge even though it's obviously only a tighter for route races down the road. Figuring stuff like that out us part of what I like the most about horse racing.
Now if the jockey us "stiffing" the horse that's a whole different story, and by stiffing I mean holding a horse back from running his best race in order to either manipulate the outcome of that particular race or so that a bet a bigger odds can be cashed on the horse later down the road.
I don't think it really happens much at all where a jockey is going to try to fix a race, because the punishment for doing that is so severe. Their career would be over and they most likely would go to prison, but I do think the holding of a horse back to get better odds in a future race probably does happen occasionally.
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05-09-2014, 10:36 PM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Scientist
I think when you have horses that really just needs the race and the jockey rides them like it's a workout rather than a race that it's up to the bettors to be able to see what the situation is when doing their handicapping and bet accordingly. I don't blame the trainer or the jockey. If the horse needs a race than he needs a race .
How many times have you seen a route horse come back from a long layoff in a sprint and the horse gets hammered at the windows because maybe he has a class or speed figure edge even though it's obviously only a tighter for route races down the road. Figuring stuff like that out us part of what I like the most about horse racing.
Now if the jockey us "stiffing" the horse that's a whole different story, and by stiffing I mean holding a horse back from running his best race in order to either manipulate the outcome of that particular race or so that a bet a bigger odds can be cashed on the horse later down the road.
I don't think it really happens much at all where a jockey is going to try to fix a race, because the punishment for doing that is so severe. Their career would be over and they most likely would go to prison, but I do think the holding of a horse back to get better odds in a future race probably does happen occasionally.
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But, isnt it possible to have a horse fully cranked off workouts? Why should you use a pari mutuel race as a "qualifier" when you could just train the horse hard and have him dead fit?
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04-24-2015, 10:21 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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I see Powerful Instinct is running tomorrow at Aqueduct. I took a look at the replay of his Feb 21 race at GP (race 1, he's number 3). There was a brief period entering the stretch where there was some mild traffic, but even after he got clear of that, it appears the rider isn't interested in winning that race, or finishing higher. Just no sense of urgency whatsoever. I'll have to rewatch the head on. Maybe there was some left handed urging I missed, but considering how lazy the rider's hands appeared to be, I doubt that's the case.
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04-24-2015, 10:33 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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I watched the replay. It certainly wasn't a blatant stiff job, but possibly a subtle one. In the head on, he had to cross over more lanes than I realized from the pan shot. But there never was any real sense of urgency. I've never felt JRV was one to pull horses. Curious to hear other takes on the race. Maybe I'm seeing something that isn't there.
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04-24-2015, 11:47 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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when you bet horses that have been off for a year and a half your taking a big risk. horses that were off that long are usually off due to a severe injury of some kind. no trainer or jockey in their right mind are going to take a risk of wasting all the time and money of bringing a horse back from that long of a layoff by blowing the thing up to please a bettor. just the cold reality of it. they will get the horse to show some interest early but at the first sign of fatigue/fade/disinterest they wrap em up to not blow a hole in the horse.
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04-24-2015, 12:15 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadk66
when you bet horses that have been off for a year and a half your taking a big risk. horses that were off that long are usually off due to a severe injury of some kind. no trainer or jockey in their right mind are going to take a risk of wasting all the time and money of bringing a horse back from that long of a layoff by blowing the thing up to please a bettor. just the cold reality of it. they will get the horse to show some interest early but at the first sign of fatigue/fade/disinterest they wrap em up to not blow a hole in the horse.
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That may be true for horses off a year and a half; this horse was off 2 months, having last run December 27 before the Feb 21 race. He wasn't asked for anything at all early, and lagged quite a bit far back. The horse made progress without any urging, and saving ground on second turn helped.
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04-24-2015, 02:22 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Horse has yet to win again, looks like a 3rd place effort was her best. If there was a reason they pulled her in the race its hard to imagine what they are waiting for...maybe its like in Let It Ride.....
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04-24-2015, 04:43 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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what most people fail to understand is sometimes trainers change things up with their horses trying to find something that makes them better. I had quite a few horses that while sprinting were pace setters or a hair off the pace. when I stretched them out they didn't finish up well. decided to take them way back early on and they closed like crazy and became great route horses. Same thing happens with sprinters. Sometimes you have to try them off the pace quite a ways and try to make them finish stronger. As a bystander you have no idea what's going on with a trainers/jockey/owners desires for a horse.
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04-24-2015, 04:53 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Ba-zing. Big part of handicapping is trying to figure out connection intentions. No matter what us bettors want, not every horse in every race is hell bent to get to the wire first. Nothing wrong with that. Unless you're Brian Carney, every owner wants to work his horse into the winner's circle, some way, some time. Some of these horses take some time to figure out.
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