x factor large heart 2014 what horses in this years derby have??

[Delta Cone]

Originally Posted by raybo

If there was concrete proof that Wise Dan has the gene and a larger than normal heart, I would not have used the phrase "I would bet" I would have used the word "I know for a fact". We'll just have wait and see if they measure his heart after he passes. But, if he goes to stud and produces dams that become great race horses or great race horse producers, that will be enough proof for me.

Wise Dan is a gelding.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Delta Cone

Wise Dan is a gelding.

Dang! That sucks!!

I guess I'll just have to wait until he dies and see if they make public the size of his heart.

[cashmachine]

How do you use horse's pedigree for betting? I guess it is mostly good only in the beginning of racing career, when horse did not have many starts? Or you would still give horse some credit for belonging to a good family even if she did not show anything extra ordinal at the track?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

How do you use horse's pedigree for betting? I guess it is mostly good only in the beginning of racing career, when horse did not have many starts? Or you would still give horse some credit for belonging to a good family even if she did not show anything extra ordinal at the track?

My personal opinion, as a handicapper, is that pedigree is most useful with young horses, 2 and 3 yos. Once they reach 4 I rely totally on the "numbers" they have produced.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by raybo

My personal opinion, as a handicapper, is that pedigree is most useful with young horses, 2 and 3 yos. Once they reach 4 I rely totally on the "numbers" they have produced.

How many starts you would say is enough to rely totally on numbers? I mean, some horses run more often than other, and they probably can be judged earlier.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

How many starts you would say is enough to rely totally on numbers? I mean, some horses run more often than other, and they probably can be judged earlier.

two maybe three...first at a route or first on turf...three tries is enough for me...alli was saying Ray was how do you use it if 50% of all horses bred today have the gene.No way of knowing which horse actually has a larger heart than normal?

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by fmolf

two maybe three...first at a route or first on turf...three tries is enough for me...alli was saying Ray was how do you use it if 50% of all horses bred today have the gene.No way of knowing which horse actually has a larger heart than normal?

A tedious and very time consuming study I did a few years back, concentrated on all female lines of Princequillo, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and War Admiral. I built family trees and then concentrated on all the modern ancestors that were in production and followed their offspring. Had roughly 50 mares that I followed with stable mail.
In a Freakonomics moment I found that a good portion of the group
1) Stayed in the hands of a few rich breeders and were not sold unless an estate liquidation
2) Crossed better on certain stallion lines ie 13-c (Mr Prospector Seattle Slew)http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family13c.htm and 8-c(Storm Cat)
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family8c.htm
3) The data, while very loosely compiled, showed that these lines accounted for a much higher than average of Stakes winners and Stakes producers. The data would have been biased by me due to looking for horses that were at high end tracks with high end breeders and owners so there could be holes. It was intended for my own motives.

I did quite well in both finding winners at racing and ironically also at the sales. This was how I found I'll Have Another after his maiden run and successfully predicted him winning the Derby in FEB. Cashed huge.

To give you an idea of the enormity of the offspring here and granted the db I was using was not updated since 2004 (requiring a lot of extra homework), I found Princequillo alone had 1651 mares born after 1995, the family is 7 or 8k if all are included. It is a big report but enclosed below.
This is a practical application of pedigree capping but by no means conventional and requires more work than most would put in. I did bloodstock work and was the chief consultant for a large breeding outfit in IA. So while I was doing it for work, it was useful for following horses currently running.
I am a big pedigree nerd and have been since 1996. I have been very fortunate that quite a few times in the last 20 years, I have been paid by large farms to do nothing but study pedigrees. I like to think I know what I am talking about, but don't we all.

[fmolf]

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by fmolf

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

That would be up to you. I personally weight those that "could" have the gene and thus, "could" have the larger heart, a bit higher than those that absolutely cannot have the gene (a "subjective" weighting, not an "objective or "a number" weighting), due to their not being in a line in which the gene is probably present.

But, I also use the "numbers" each horse has run so far in their careers, so the XFactor portion is not a "primary" or "objective" factor in my analysis, rather more of a subjective "tie breaker" factor in young horses. As I said, once a horse reaches 4 years old I usually have a pretty good idea if a horse has the gene and a larger heart, by the performances he/she has displayed up to that point, and I consequently expect a bit more from a horse like that in future races.

Also as I mentioned earlier, Wise Dan comes from a line that probably has the XFactor gene, and his performances convince me that he is expressing the gene and the larger heart. Zenyatta is another one like that, and of course Secretariat was also, and after his death that was confirmed, as well as Sham's. There are many other examples of probable XFactor gene/large heart horses throughout history, since Eclipse, who is the suspected beginning of the mutated "XFactor" gene in thoroughbred horses.

So, is the XFactor the Holy Grail? No, absolutely not, but it is another tool in the tool box, for me anyway.

But, if you are an owner or breeder, the XFactor could well be the Holy Grail of pedigree research.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by fmolf

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

By the way, the XFactor isn't a "chromosome", it is a "mutated gene" carried on a chromosome.

[Longshot]

I was sent an article that said that a horse with Buckpasser in the X Passing Position may have inherited the X Factor. Those of you that know
something about breeding and the X Factor is this correct?

If this is correct from the pedigree charts I see California Chrome, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vicar's in Trouble, Vinceremos, Wicked Strong and Wildcat Red as possibly having the X Factor.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I was sent an article that said that a horse with Buckpasser in the X Passing Position may have inherited the X Factor. Those of you that know
something about breeding and the X Factor is this correct?

If this is correct from the pedigree charts I see California Chrome, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vicar's in Trouble, Vinceremos, Wicked Strong and Wildcat Red as possibly having the X Factor.

Buckpasser, indeed, could carry the XFactor gene. Going back 5 generations we have:

Mare: Pink Domino > Son: Sweep > Daughter: Brushup > Son: War Admiral > Daughter: Busanda, all of which are suspected of having the XFactor gene, and Buckpasser is the son of Busanda, so he too could have the gene.

I haven't looked at all the horses you listed but keep in mind, the XFactor can only be passed from father to daughter or mother to son or daughter. The father cannot pass the gene to his sons.

[raybo]

Vinceremos is the only one of the horses you listed that I could not, for sure, say that he could have the gene, all the others could have it. But, just because a horse could have it, doesn't mean it does, or passed it on to a particular offspring. And even if the gene exists, that doesn't mean the horse will express it with a larger heart or in its performances.

Good indications of the XFactor being present, keeping in mind that the possibility must be present in the first place, through it's parents (keeping in mind the father to daughter, or mother to son or daughter requirement), are: did it perform brilliantly on the track, or did it's offspring perform brilliantly, or their offspring performed brilliantly, etc.. There are some lines that are almost guaranteed recipients of the gene due to their outstanding performances and/or their offspring's performances, and/or evidence through actual measurement of the heart size after death (which is the very best evidence of all of course).

I wouldn't get too carried away with the possibility of a horse having the gene, until its performances provide further evidence.

There are examples of certain horses almost certainly having the gene, and the large heart, simply by their stellar performances, most recently - California Chrome comes to mind. If this horse keeps going with it's great performances, the evidence will be overwhelming, IMO.

[turninforhome10]

Spend 5-10 mins reading the enclosed and it can save you all alot of questions. Buckpasser carries x through his Dam Busanda who is a double copy mare. She is by War Admiral (donor) and out of Blue Larkspur mare(donor). She is also a very important decedent of the major line of La Troienne.
The link
http://books.google.com/books?id=S36...factor&f=false

[dansan]

Calvin Borel he's due LOL