x factor large heart 2014 what horses in this years derby have??

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

Has this X-factor, have had anything to do with the majority of winners in the Derby ?

Just wondering....

From my research
"39 winners of 59 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur foundation mares through tail female".
Pretty impressive.

[Tom]

Good thread - never heard of this stuff before.
I'm not into breeding much, but this is worth looking into.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Good thread - never heard of this stuff before.
I'm not into breeding much, but this is worth looking into.

Well, it does explain some things about certain horses, that otherwise could not be explained. But, for most of us, the XFactor knowledge being used, in what we do, can get us in lots of trouble.

Secretariats heart was more than 2 1/2 times the size of the normal thoroughbred heart weight of 7-8 pounds. Shams also was larger than the average.

Eclipse's heart, which many believe was the initial case of this gene, was 14 pounds, I think, while Secretariat's was about 22 pounds.

And, of course, Zenyatta got the XFactor from her mother, who got it from Secretariat.

Now that you know about it, before next Saturday you probably need to decide whether you will use that knowledge or not. Why? California Chrome is filling his dance card nicely for this year's Kentucky Derby. California Chrome is expressing his Dam's heart Love The Chase, by Not for Love, out of Dance Numbers by Northern Dancer.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by raybo

Well, it does explain some things about certain horses, that otherwise could not be explained. But, for most of us, the XFactor knowledge being used, in what we do, can get us in lots of trouble.

Secretariats heart was more than 2 1/2 times the size of the normal thoroughbred heart weight of 7-8 pounds. Shams also was larger than the average.

Eclipse's heart, which many believe was the initial case of this gene, was 14 pounds, I think, while Secretariat's was about 22 pounds.

And, of course, Zenyatta got the XFactor from her mother, who got it from Secretariat.

Now that you know about it, before next Saturday you probably need to decide whether you will use that knowledge or not. Why? California Chrome is filling his dance card nicely for this year's Kentucky Derby. California Chrome is expressing his Dam's heart Love The Chase, by Not for Love, out of Dance Numbers by Northern Dancer.

California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed
As far as Zenyatta goes she gets hers directly from Lexington himself, Zenyatta has no Secretariat in her pedigree. Also see Sham's Brood mare Sire.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed

He could have gotten it that way also, but, out of the Northern Dancer and Numbered Account mating (both suspected carriers of the XFactor) came the dam, Dance Number, who could have passed the gene to its son, Not For Love, who could have passed the gene to his daughter, Love The Chase, who of course could have then passed the gene to California Chrome.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by raybo

He could have gotten it that way also, but, out of the Northern Dancer and Numbered Account mating (both suspected carriers of the XFactor) came the dam, Dance Number, who could have passed the gene to its son, Not For Love, who could have passed the gene to his daughter, Love The Chase, who of course could have then passed the gene to California Chrome.

See page 5 and 6 http://books.google.com/books?id=D1r...ghbred&f=false

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed
As far as Zenyatta goes she gets hers directly from Lexington himself, Zenyatta has no Secretariat in her pedigree. Also see Sham's Brood mare Sire.

You're correct about Secretariat not being in Z's pedigree, don't know where I got that from, but I have looked up pedigrees for quite a few horses recently and must have gotten my wires crossed somewhere.

Regarding Sham, he got his from his dam, Sequoia, who got her's from her sire, Princequillo, unless I'm missing something.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

See page 5 and 6 http://books.google.com/books?id=D1r...ghbred&f=false

I assume you are pointing towards the statement that "mitochondria are only passed to the offspring through the egg", meaning through the female, however, "there is evidence for an occasional transfer through sperm", meaning the male. So, just because it is more frequently passed through the female it can also be passed through the male, if the offspring is female of course.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by raybo

You're correct about Secretariat not being in Z's pedigree, don't know where I got that from, but I have looked up pedigrees for quite a few horses recently and must have gotten my wires crossed somewhere.

Regarding Sham, he got his from his dam, Sequoia, who got her's from her sire, Princequillo, unless I'm missing something.

Perfect, a direct line. Let me use this so observe better. See enclosed The horses highlighted in green are considered x-trail donors.
Lets break down some past winners from the beginning, which will also let us find some current ancestors that we could actually put into our handicapping. Would this be better served by building whole new thread talking about pedigrees?

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by raybo

I assume you are pointing towards the statement that "mitochondria are only passed to the offspring through the egg", meaning through the female, however, "there is evidence for an occasional transfer through sperm", meaning the male. So, just because it is more frequently passed through the female it can also be passed through the male, if the offspring is female of course.

You caught me. This would give credence to what you are saying. When you start to move towards the sire as a donor the studying get much murkier. I prefer to use the idea that MtDNA is easier to follow by looking at direct female line. My reasoning is that the chances of these traits being passed are greater due to greater chance of dominance.
The reason I personally follow the x-trails is that more often than not the best lines were owned by the wealthiest people and the best judges of horse flesh. Most of the time these connections would have access to the best for the best. If the lines stayed in closed hands, this would speak to the performance both racing and breeding.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

You caught me. This would give credence to what you are saying. When you start to move towards the sire as a donor the studying get much murkier. I prefer to use the idea that MtDNA is easier to follow by looking at direct female line. My reasoning is that the chances of these traits being passed are greater due to greater chance of dominance.
The reason I personally follow the x-trails is that more often than not the best lines were owned by the wealthiest people and the best judges of horse flesh. Most of the time these connections would have access to the best for the best. If the lines stayed in closed hands, this would speak to the performance both racing and breeding.

I generally agree with you that it is much more consistent, when tracing the XFactor through generations, to concentrate on the dams. However, it is proven that sires can pass their XFactor through their daughters, who then of course can become dams and continue that sires XFactor line. If the sire never has any daughters, then his XFactor line stops with him, but even a single daughter can continue that sire's XFactor line through her offspring.

As I said earlier, for most of us, the XFactor thing can get us in lots of trouble, because we "assume" that the gene gets passed on every time it is possible, ie., father to daughter and dam to son and daughter. When we assume that the gene has been passed, and we add additional weighting to those "perceived" recipients we then set ourselves for disappointment when the gene didn't actually get passed on, or didn't get expressed by the foal.

I try to play it safer by including "all" of the possible XFactor horses, which dilutes the XFactor weighting making it less important in my handicapping of individual races. However, I can still get into lots of trouble when there is only one or two horses in the field that can have the gene, while all the others absolutely cannot have it. So, I err on the side of existing performances, by all horses, and only add a tiny bit of weighting for the XFactor possibility when both the XFactor can be there, and, the horse has also displayed those XFactor "symptoms" in its performances, example: California Chrome, etc..

Its like anything else in racing, horses can look great on paper, and in theory, but until they express that greatness in real races, we probably are better off not getting carried away by supposition.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Perfect, a direct line. Let me use this so observe better. See enclosed The horses highlighted in green are considered x-trail donors.
Lets break down some past winners from the beginning, which will also let us find some current ancestors that we could actually put into our handicapping. Would this be better served by building whole new thread talking about pedigrees?

Wow! That would entail a whole lot of work.

You would have to first of all go all the way back to Eclipse, then trace all his daughters, all of their sons and daughters, then all of the son's daughters and all the daughters sons and daughters, etc., etc., etc.........

If someone is a subscriber to a pedigree site that has the XFactor filtering, it would make things much easier, assuming that filtering includes "all" XFactor possibilities, both the female side and the male side..

[raybo]

A great example of a horse who I would bet a lot of money that he both, has the XFactor gene, and has a larger than normal heart, is Wise Dan.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by raybo

A great example of a horse who I would bet a lot of money that he both, has the XFactor gene, and has a larger than normal heart, is Wise Dan.

Does he just have the Gene or is their concrete proof that his heart is larger?I do not believe in this he has the gene stuff?...Seems like voodoo type stuff for me.If over half the horses running in the derby have it,what good is it anyway,if you need other handicapping factors to whittle down the contenders?..Turf breeding i believe in because you can actually see a larger hoof and a smaller more athletic hind end.....

[raybo]

Originally Posted by fmolf

Does he just have the Gene or is their concrete proof that his heart is larger?I do not believe in this he has the gene stuff?...Seems like voodoo type stuff for me.If over half the horses running in the derby have it,what good is it anyway,if you need other handicapping factors to whittle down the contenders?..Turf breeding i believe in because you can actually see a larger hoof and a smaller more athletic hind end.....

If there was concrete proof that Wise Dan has the gene and a larger than normal heart, I would not have used the phrase "I would bet" I would have used the word "I know for a fact". We'll just have wait and see if they measure his heart after he passes. But, if he goes to stud and produces dams that become great race horses or great race horse producers, that will be enough proof for me.

Whether or not you believe that Secretariat and other great horses and great producers have, or had, the gene that produces a larger heart, is neither here nor there, the medical research has already been done and hearts measured that strongly suggests that it is in fact too coincidental to not be fact.

This has been studied for many decades and the evidence is there, if you choose to not believe it, that's fine, I won't try to convince you because I really don't care one way or the other.