Derby Betting Strategy: Betting California Chrome

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Not all horses that are foaled were focused on the derby by their trainers & owner......the following horses had more than 7 races entering the derby........

1992.....Lil E Tee (8 races)

1993......Sea Hero (10 races)

1994......Go for Gin (9 races)

1995......Thunder Gulch (9 races) (won derby & Belmont)

1998.......Real Quiet (12 races) (lost triple crown by a nose)

1999......Charismatic (14 races) (won derby & Preakness)

2009......Mine that Bird........(8 races)

The standard from 2000 to 2013 has changed & horses are running less, usually around 6 races but we are also see a ton more injuries than we were back when horses ran more races. Hmm......

The list above is interesting. All of them bred better than California Chrome, though breeding isn't as big a factor for the Derby as it once was. Mine That Bird is an outlier - if the track on Derby Day had been fast OR sloppy, that horse doesn't hit the board.

Standards have changed - and only once in the last 14 runnings has a horse with more than 7 starts won the Derby. Makes 4-1 on CC a bit dicey, just on that stat alone. Again, I'd be curious how many Derby horses have run with three starts in quarter 2 of their 2YO season.

There was an even bigger shift in the breed in 1990. That's the last year the Kentucky Derby winner (Unbridled) came back to win the Breeder's Cup. Since then, injuries, retirement, and "post-peak" poor performances have been the norm of the Derby winner. Silver Charm and Animal Kingdom did come back to win the Dubai World Cup, but most Derby winners struggle to get through the Triple Crown, let alone race as an older horse.

So it basically comes down to whether or not California Chrome has peaked - history says his future after the Derby is gloomy, as others in his class will mature and pass him in ability.

Unless I can fly to England and get a wager down on "Field Against" CC, it's time to start looking for the horse I do want to bet on....

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Cc love fest on hrtv today..was thinking he wouldn't be less the 4-1 but I don't know kool aid is going really strong...if even 25% of what the connections are saying this is going to be a route...appear VERY confident...sherman said that he worries about the break with cc and will be working with him in the gate heavily to try to get him out clean

Confidence is one thing..did they sound arrogant?

Look, I'm not saying CC isn't the real deal. Might be a freak. But, what makes me pause is he's never ran outside CA. I think you have too look at how the west coast shippers have faired in this year's preps. If I were considering CC as a key horse, that aspect, along with lacking a workout over CD's track are both concerning. Horses either love or hate CD. Los Al angle just bugs me for some reason.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Tall One

Confidence is one thing..did they sound arrogant?

Look, I'm not saying CC isn't the real deal. Might be a freak. But, what makes me pause is he's never ran outside CA. I think you have too look at how the west coast shippers have faired in this year's preps. If I were considering CC as a key horse, that aspect, along with lacking a workout over CD's track are both concerning. Horses either love or hate CD. Los Al angle just bugs me for some reason.

They announced earlier on TVG that Los Am will have a $500k graded stakes race this summer.......thanks to Cali Chrome.

Remember I'll Have Another? Ran all Cali races except 1, he tried Saratoga & cane in 6th by 19 lengths in his only race outside of Cali.......he ended up winning the derby.

Just because Chrome hasn't raced outside Cali means nothing when the horse is fit & clicking on all cylinders. Also, he ran at 3 different tracks in Cali, so its not like its the same track.

Some Cali horses like Santa Anita but hate Del Mar or Hollywood.......yes, I would also like to see Chrome workout over Churchill but it doesn't bother me as much.

I could have cared less when Funny Code worked out in NY instead of Churchill, I still was all over him. When a horse is fit & clicking, look out!

[Tall One]

^^Can't refute any of that. Like I said, not saying he's not the real deal, just some concerns for discussion. Horses ship in and ship out for one race all the time. Nothing new there, but with the Derby, I will sometimes let the little things get me hung up.

Regarding Funny Cide, who I also won a few bucks on, a few of us made the trip over to CD for the Stephen Foster that year, and the CD execs brought the Sackatoga Stable, along with the bus, back for the day. When I told one of them I had FC in the Derby, he yelled "hey this guy is buying next round."

[tanner12oz]

What is the stretch distance from Los al vs. Santa Anita vs Churchill?

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

What is the stretch distance from Los al vs. Santa Anita vs Churchill?

Los Alamitos new mile track has the longest stretch at 1380 feet. I don't know the exact numbers, but Churchill is second right around 1320 and Santa Anita is the shortest.

Los Al is where California Chrome works out. Here is a link to a video of his work today. He looks amazingly smooth and effortless.
http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2216

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by mostpost

Los Alamitos new mile track has the longest stretch at 1380 feet. I don't know the exact numbers, but Churchill is second right around 1320 and Santa Anita is the shortest.

Los Al is where California Chrome works out. Here is a link to a video of his work today. He looks amazingly smooth and effortless.
http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2216

that's what I heard but just wanted to confirm..
positive for cc

[fmolf]

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by fmolf

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh

thats an interesting take but what are you basing it on? Uncle Sigh hasnt been able to overtake his local competition. Tapiture looks like a horse who cant get the distance as he floundered last time out, ride on curlin the beyeres would suggest just isnt fast enough and lets face it he dont do much winning of races... Samraat eh, hes alright but compared to California Chrome... i dont know about that

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by fmolf

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh

I don't see Chrome having traffic problems with the tactical speed he shows......also, the 3 horses you named will be over taken in the stretch (if they make it that far) before Chrome.

I would like to see the post positions first to see what hole Wildcard Red comes out of, he should set the pace along with Uncle Sigh & several others pressing the pace. Espinoza should have Chrome sitting 4th within 3 lengths of the leader.

Thing is, Chrome loves to run fast in the wind & Espinoza can only hold him back for so long.

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I don't see Chrome having traffic problems with the tactical speed he shows......also, the 3 horses you named will be over taken in the stretch (if they make it that far) before Chrome.

I would like to see the post positions first to see what hole Wildcard Red comes out of, he should set the pace along with Uncle Sigh & several others pressing the pace. Espinoza should have Chrome sitting 4th within 3 lengths of the leader.

Thing is, Chrome loves to run fast in the wind & Espinoza can only hold him back for so long.

i really like Wildcat Red to run a big race and fight to the end prbably finish 3rd or 4th... he a fighter tho

[ArlJim78]

If California Chrome loses it will be because of some kind of trouble with his trip. for example before Espinoza rode him he showed a tendency to be uncomfortable with horses to his outside. Espinoza obviously seems to be a good fit and knows to keep him in the clear.
Other than possibly the rapidly improving Danza I see no horse in this race who's going to run down California Chrome in the stretch.

[jk3521]

Don't forget that last years' Derby winner was the favorite and the exacta paid over $900 !

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If California Chrome loses it will be because of some kind of trouble with his trip. for example before Espinoza rode him he showed a tendency to be uncomfortable with horses to his outside. Espinoza obviously seems to be a good fit and knows to keep him in the clear.
Other than possibly the rapidly improving Danza I see no horse in this race who's going to run down California Chrome in the stretch.

100% agree..... And yes DANZA IS THE BOSS

California Chrome is the best horse bar none... The only thing that can beat him would be a bad trip... Match race him vs any horse in this field id be shocked if anyone is with in 10 lengths of him...

I tried to bet against Big Brown for the derby in 2007 and im not going to make the same mistake again.

All I got to say is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjmjqlOPd6A

Im loving this super right now

Cal Chrome/ W Danza, Wicked Strong, Hoppertunity/ W Wildcat Red, Hoppertunity/ W Danza, Wicked Srong, Hoppertunity, Wildcat Red $10 Bucks

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by jk3521

Don't forget that last years' Derby winner was the favorite and the exacta paid over $900 !

Im also doing a $2 Cal Chrome W All


if your betting Chromeo you gotta play exotics. his odds are too low