Derby Betting Strategy: Betting California Chrome

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

you gonna go deep trying to beat wise Dan? Good luck

Two singles in a P4 sounds very enticing.

[Smarty Cide]

all/ all/ wise dan/ chromeo

[Smarty Cide]

what day will the full card be released? the same day as the derby post draw i assume?

[PhantomOnTour]

Smarty Cide - if I may...

Let the Derby come to you - do not go chasing it.
In my opinion it is a waste of time to construct your tickets now.
Some runners will look great during Derby week and some will work terribly.
You have already posted a Pick 4 ticket and you don't even know who is running in the races leading up to the Derby
Insane.

[Bigbob115]

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

[Smarty Cide]

Originally Posted by Bigbob115

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

Cairo Prince really had no kick in the Florida Derby... but i still tend to agree.. dont know why, just a gut feeling

Social Inclusion is nowhere near California Chrome... they shouldnt even be on the same track...

[andtheyreoff]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

what day will the full card be released? the same day as the derby post draw i assume?

Likely the Wednesday before, so April 30.

Originally Posted by Bigbob115

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

Neither Cairo Prince nor Social Inclusion has any chance to win any Triple Crown race they are entered in.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Bigbob115

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

LoL......SI better than Chrome? I can't wait until the Preakness.......

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

What's wrong with racing 10 times before the derby? It builds foundation, unlike Constitution that was forced to run a big race his 3rd time out & gets injured.

When handicapping the Derby, I look for a horse that's been pointed to the race since before being foaled. 10 starts prior to the Derby tells me that California Chrome was not considered a Derby prospect early in his career. Each horse has only so many starts, and there's a balance between building foundation, and tapping out the well.

Last year Orb peaked a bit early, but still had enough in the tank to win the Derby. He had seven well spaced starts leading up to the race, and moved forward nicely after breaking his maiden in late November. We all know what happened with Orb after the Derby.

California Chrome, on the other hand, had three starts prior to June 30th last year. I would love to see the Derby stats on how many 2YOs have even started with that stat in their PPs.

This horse may have plenty of upside left, and I could be completely wrong. I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks. But at this point, he's looking like a bounce candidate that's peaked and is going to make this year's Derby quite bettable. I'll be investing much more this year.....

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks. But at this point, he's looking like a bounce candidate that's peaked and is going to make this year's Derby quite bettable. I'll be investing much more this year.....

The issue here is that he isn't going to be working out at CD. His connections have already said he will continue to work at LA training center and ship the Tuesday before the derby.

[Tall One]

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks.



Unless plans have changed, he will not have a workout over the CD strip.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by Tall One

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks.



Unless plans have changed, he will not have a workout over the CD strip.

Ah, didn't know that. Like him less now.

BTW - thought I heard Cairo Prince is out of the Derby on Talking Horses today....

[SecretAgentMan]

Not all horses that are foaled were focused on the derby by their trainers & owner......the following horses had more than 7 races entering the derby........

1992.....Lil E Tee (8 races)

1993......Sea Hero (10 races)

1994......Go for Gin (9 races)

1995......Thunder Gulch (9 races) (won derby & Belmont)

1998.......Real Quiet (12 races) (lost triple crown by a nose)

1999......Charismatic (14 races) (won derby & Preakness)

2009......Mine that Bird........(8 races)

The standard from 2000 to 2013 has changed & horses are running less, usually around 6 races but we are also see a ton more injuries than we were back when horses ran more races. Hmm......

[TMQ]

In my opinion a lot of my betting strategy will come down to how the track is playing. If they make it a paved highway CC looks like a good bet to me. my guess is it will be how it has been the last 10 years. A huge charge down the backstretch.

[tanner12oz]

Cc love fest on hrtv today..was thinking he wouldn't be less the 4-1 but I don't know kool aid is going really strong...if even 25% of what the connections are saying this is going to be a route...appear VERY confident...sherman said that he worries about the break with cc and will be working with him in the gate heavily to try to get him out clean