Keeneland 4/18 selections

[letswastemoney]

Race 1

Some of these trainers have awful records at Keeneland.

I'll use the horses that have trainers with at least one win at Keeneland this year: Who's Mary's Daddy (5/2), Scenario Analysis (5/1) and Star Passage (6/1).

[letswastemoney]

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.

[letswastemoney]

Race 3

Chart Topper (5/2) should handle these. That Feb. 22 race, if you study it, was a very productive one.

For a more off the wall pick, Bisque (6/1) has a nifty 5F turf win ... at Indiana Downs.

[letswastemoney]

Race 4

Tough claiming race. Just pick names out of a hat.

Remembermealways (3/1)

Electro Peg (5/1)

Jamraa (4/1)

Sense of a Woman (10/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 5

Two of these horses deserve consideration because of high percentage connections: Hijo del Corredor (7/2) and No Free Lunch (5/2).

The other two to consider are War Ready (6/1) and Borseggiatore (8/1). The latter has Nick Zito as the trainer and he struggles at Keeneland, however, the breeding is good for synthetic

[letswastemoney]

Race 6

A lot of these ones do not have the correct breeding for synthetic.

Cozy Nicole (3/1) and Ready Player One (5/2) look okay.

Red Parasol's (20/1) second dam won on turf.

Temper (12/1) has Giant's Causeway as the sire, always a force in synthetic racing.

[letswastemoney]

Race 7

It's not in my nature to pick a dirt horse for a polytrack race, but Song to You (6/1) might be okay on it with Unbridled's Song as the sire.

The others to check out are Midnight Notes (6/1), Mt Tronador (6/1), Rei (3/1)

The pace projector thinks the pace will be slow, and all those horse above will be at mid-pack or higher.

[letswastemoney]

Race 8

Rosee Is Cozee (12/1) has incredible synthetic form at Turfway. If she translates that form here, she will be difficult to beat.

Unfortunately for her, this is a tough race.

Lonesome Town (9/2), Star Pearl (4/1), Liberated (5/1) have a shot.

Maybe Miss Lucky Sevens (8/1) too, although her trainer is low percentage.

[letswastemoney]

Race 9

Do you trust Emollient (6/5)? Mike Smith is riding, which is a good thing.

Sisterly Love (5/1) and Solid Appeal (6/1) will get first jump.

[letswastemoney]

Race 10

They should call Casino Dan (8/1) Fragile Dan. He rarely runs. But, the Wise Dan sibling can win here if he's ready.

Transcend (3/1), Twigazuri Strait (5/1) and Honor the Kitten (5/2) are the three next best horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.

I pretty much agree with your picks here.
This may be a good betting race.
The ML Favorite seems to want to hang in deep stretch. He's the best horse in the field up until that final 1/8th. The surface and distance could confuse the issue here. It's possible it could actually help him. However, it seems logical enough that the added distance will play against him.

- His rival last time ran a huge effort in that race. The big stretch out calls for guesswork, but he evidently has some talent.

- Has the long layoff, and then the odd work tab (3days,9days,5days,3days,7days), but his prior form is suited to the race conditions.

not so crazy about the 2.

[BettinBilly]

I agree for most of these, LWM. I'm also a Timeform Capper.

I appreciate the post. It is time to change my abysmal performance at KEE.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.

DACAMP has the edge by a good margin on distance pedigree.
I wouldn't completely discount the in the exoctics.

[Robert Fischer]

looks like the ML was off for this race.

The 5 is currently favored, and the 3 is around 5-2.

Not getting the big overlay cushion I was hoping to work with.

[Racetrack Playa]

kee 3
Federal Agent
Seems Overlooked 9-1 my pick