Spot Play Give-Away

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by glengarry

Many thanks to the OP for sharing. I have no such sure fire plays that I can document. However, I have noted the following after many hours of watching TVG and HRTV. The more their on screen "experts" bad mouth the favorite, the louder they chant how bad a favorite he is, the more likely he is to win easily.

I had a friend who, without knowing how to read a form, ended up ahead lifetime before moving to a country with no horse racing. He used what he called the "sampling" method. He would stand by the window, and jot down which horses people were using on top the most. With a minute to post he would analyze the list and checked the board. If he found a horse taking money (not necessarily one of the shorter prices) that was not found much on his list, he would bet that horse. He had a remarkable success rate. The theory being that the average bettor knew nothing and followed simplistic, obvious factors. Thus any horse getting bet that the public avoided was taking insider money. You stand by the windows today, and you get punched in the head by one of the many lunatics attracted to the game. The upside to standing by the windows is, if in NY, Chicago, any Florida track or Cali, you will learn a multitude of foreign languages, and some variations of English as well.

Go to a simulcast center. the people there are too old to hit very hard. But you might get run over by a power wheel chair. Actually I think your friend's plan might have merit.

[thespaah]

I'm and 'angles' type bettor. I will search and dig for certain angles. If there is apparent value there, I play it without hesitation.
Thanks for the post!

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by glengarry

Many thanks to the OP for sharing. I have no such sure fire plays that I can document. However, I have noted the following after many hours of watching TVG and HRTV. The more their on screen "experts" bad mouth the favorite, the louder they chant how bad a favorite he is, the more likely he is to win easily.

I had a friend who, without knowing how to read a form, ended up ahead lifetime before moving to a country with no horse racing. He used what he called the "sampling" method. He would stand by the window, and jot down which horses people were using on top the most. With a minute to post he would analyze the list and checked the board. If he found a horse taking money (not necessarily one of the shorter prices) that was not found much on his list, he would bet that horse. He had a remarkable success rate. The theory being that the average bettor knew nothing and followed simplistic, obvious factors. Thus any horse getting bet that the public avoided was taking insider money. You stand by the windows today, and you get punched in the head by one of the many lunatics attracted to the game. The upside to standing by the windows is, if in NY, Chicago, any Florida track or Cali, you will learn a multitude of foreign languages, and some variations of English as well.

Good way to get ahead in the game while saving money on a Berlitz course.

As for taking an anti on-air analyst approach when they're trying to beat the favorite, I'm all for that. Provided they spend 15 minutes minimum on the deficiencies of the favorite. What's funny is that at random they they should be right about 67% of the time - even if you have zero knowledge or opinion. They can't seem to get that part right either. Funny game.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by glengarry

... I had a friend who, without knowing how to read a form, ended up ahead lifetime before moving to a country with no horse racing. He used what he called the "sampling" method. He would stand by the window, and jot down which horses people were using on top the most. With a minute to post he would analyze the list and checked the board. If he found a horse taking money (not necessarily one of the shorter prices) that was not found much on his list, he would bet that horse. He had a remarkable success rate. The theory being that the average bettor knew nothing and followed simplistic, obvious factors. Thus any horse getting bet that the public avoided was taking insider money. You stand by the windows today, and you get punched in the head by one of the many lunatics attracted to the game. The upside to standing by the windows is, if in NY, Chicago, any Florida track or Cali, you will learn a multitude of foreign languages, and some variations of English as well.

This kinda reminds of what Jay Trotter did in the movie "Let it ride".

[GaryG]

Replay Randall - there is one of these going Sunday at SA, not exactly the letter of the law but the spirit anyway. In the 5th race HUGGER OF TREES.

Spawr claimed him from a $16K two lifer on the last day of Hollywood. Now he is back almost five months later for a $25K tag. Works are steady as well as fast and main man Delgadillo will ride. He is the 5-2 second choice on the line, but it is just a 6-horse field. I like him.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

As a way of introducing myself, I thought I would donate a small profitable spot play that's shown a positive ROI over the last 5 years. If anyone would like to follow my lead, we might end up with some unique concepts and perspectives that could stimulate us all to a renewed enthusiasm. Then again, it might not do anything at all.
The Play-----> Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.........Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

Again, this angle starting to heat up with the latest winner in Belmont 7th,

Defining Product: $26.80 $9.40 $5.80

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes...but the OP suggested that the horse remain a play even if the layoff is for 100 days -- give or take. Do you suppose that a trainer would claim a horse so he could keep it on the shelf for 100 days?

On some occasions the new trainer will discover that the horse he just claimed or is fully aware that the horse is in need of a rest and some freshening up.
Hence the reason a horse such as this comes off layoff with a winning effort.
I am not stating this is fact, but the perception I have is that some handicappers will look upon first off a layoff of more than 45 or so days is a negative.