Spot Play Give-Away

[ReplayRandall]

As a way of introducing myself, I thought I would donate a small profitable spot play that's shown a positive ROI over the last 5 years. If anyone would like to follow my lead, we might end up with some unique concepts and perspectives that could stimulate us all to a renewed enthusiasm. Then again, it might not do anything at all.
The Play-----> Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.........Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

[lamboguy]

off the top of my head i would say that's a winning spot play. i would call the layoff at least a month though.

[ReplayRandall]

I was referring to the standard lay-off line of 45 days........

[Midnight Cruiser]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

I was referring to the standard lay-off line of 45 days........

So when is the first play?

[ReplayRandall]

Whichever PP's you download, it will be waiting for you. All you have to do is look for it, and bet it. By the way, do you have a profitable spot play you'd like to share?

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by Midnight Cruiser

So when is the first play?

No worries.....he'll play it for you. Just check the mail box.

[Stillriledup]

I would add to your spot play, which is good btw, that the horse is an even better bet if he's coming off a very good performance.

I think that the reason these types can be nice plays is that the connections are claiming that horse for a specific purpose or specific meet...it shows to me that they have a "plan" in mind......they're not going to claim one and give him a mini freshening to finally enter in the wrong spot...most times, these horses are freshened up and ready to win and entered in a hand picked spot.

Certain owners, who live near the boutique meets in this country, will find "good claims" about 30-45 days before opening day, and the specific goal is to run a "bang up" race opening week at the new meet....so yeah, your angle in general is a good one because it shows that the new owners are willing to spend 1 months (or maybe more) of training bills in order to have a horse who is ready to run huge first time out in their barn.

Good stuff RR.

[ldiatone]

2 work outs within that 45 days helps...

[biggestal99]

You should also use the formulator to see if the trainer does good with that move claim->layoff as a stand alone, I'd be real hesitant as an example with a Linda rice claim -> layoff

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

As a way of introducing myself, I thought I would donate a small profitable spot play that's shown a positive ROI over the last 5 years. If anyone would like to follow my lead, we might end up with some unique concepts and perspectives that could stimulate us all to a renewed enthusiasm. Then again, it might not do anything at all.
The Play-----> Horse must have been claimed in last race no lower than $5K followed by an immediate lay-off of no more than 100 days (give or take), coming back to race with a class hike. Odds must be 9/2 or higher. No other conditions required concerning distance, track, trainer or surface needed.........Claim+Lay-off+Hike------->$$

Sample size, roi?

[Johnny V]

I too would be interested in the sample size and how many plays you averaged per day/week over the last 5 year period and the rational over the 9/2 cutoff. I think this angle has merit and obviously it is working for you without any other modifications. I remember years ago something similar in the ATM magazine or the old Turf and Sport Digest that I toyed around with for a brief time with mixed results if memory serves.

[ReplayRandall]

Only SRU has captured the essence of the play and the reason I gave it in the first place............to others who posted, if you don't have something to contribute, you get nothing.................I gave, you took, and wanted more on top of it...............doesn't surprise me, just keeps me from wanting to share....

[GaryG]

This angle is a good one for sure. The trainer who has used it successfully for many years in California is Bill Spawr.

[glengarry]

Many thanks to the OP for sharing. I have no such sure fire plays that I can document. However, I have noted the following after many hours of watching TVG and HRTV. The more their on screen "experts" bad mouth the favorite, the louder they chant how bad a favorite he is, the more likely he is to win easily.

I had a friend who, without knowing how to read a form, ended up ahead lifetime before moving to a country with no horse racing. He used what he called the "sampling" method. He would stand by the window, and jot down which horses people were using on top the most. With a minute to post he would analyze the list and checked the board. If he found a horse taking money (not necessarily one of the shorter prices) that was not found much on his list, he would bet that horse. He had a remarkable success rate. The theory being that the average bettor knew nothing and followed simplistic, obvious factors. Thus any horse getting bet that the public avoided was taking insider money. You stand by the windows today, and you get punched in the head by one of the many lunatics attracted to the game. The upside to standing by the windows is, if in NY, Chicago, any Florida track or Cali, you will learn a multitude of foreign languages, and some variations of English as well.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I would add to your spot play, which is good btw, that the horse is an even better bet if he's coming off a very good performance.

I think that the reason these types can be nice plays is that the connections are claiming that horse for a specific purpose or specific meet...it shows to me that they have a "plan" in mind......they're not going to claim one and give him a mini freshening to finally enter in the wrong spot...most times, these horses are freshened up and ready to win and entered in a hand picked spot.

Certain owners, who live near the boutique meets in this country, will find "good claims" about 30-45 days before opening day, and the specific goal is to run a "bang up" race opening week at the new meet....so yeah, your angle in general is a good one because it shows that the new owners are willing to spend 1 months (or maybe more) of training bills in order to have a horse who is ready to run huge first time out in their barn.

Good stuff RR.

Yes...but the OP suggested that the horse remain a play even if the layoff is for 100 days -- give or take. Do you suppose that a trainer would claim a horse so he could keep it on the shelf for 100 days?