TimeformUS winning Derby speed figures

[cj]

Originally Posted by soupman2

CJ said: The figures have been very solid over the years. The horses I've learned to be leery of are those that run a big number out of nowhere in the race prior to before the Derby.

CJ how do you mean you are leery? That if they run a big number out of nowhere they are a contender or a bounce candidate? No sure how you are leery.

Thanks for the good info.

Bob

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by cj

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

That would not bode well for Danza or Wicked Strong.

There's a few that seemed to move forward strongly in their final prep and did win. Not sure how they did on your figs but these would be worth looking into:
War Emblem, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus.

[MNslappy]

Horses who ran at least 10 points faster in their last prep than they had in any previous race at a mile or longer, according to the BRIS #s are:

Danza
Wicked Strong
Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Horses who ran at least 10 points faster in their last prep than they had in any previous race at a mile or longer, according to the BRIS #s are:

Danza
Wicked Strong
Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate

Good to know, never liked Wicked Strong & this solidifies it. Vicars will get into trouble IMO, the horsewill go to the front if no one else does & get burnt or make a middle move & fade.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valuist

That would not bode well for Danza or Wicked Strong.

There's a few that seemed to move forward strongly in their final prep and did win. Not sure how they did on your figs but these would be worth looking into:
War Emblem, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus.

Those are a little before I have data. I'm sure you are right about Charasmatic. I had War Emblem fast before the Illinois Derby, that I know for sure. I was on his bandwagon for a while. Pegasus I really don't remember.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by cj

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

Thanks for making this list Cj.......I was about to look this up, saved me some time, good stuff.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by cj

Those are a little before I have data. I'm sure you are right about Charasmatic. I had War Emblem fast before the Illinois Derby, that I know for sure. I was on his bandwagon for a while. Pegasus I really don't remember.

I can only go off of beyer figs with the following:

Charismatic.....94, 95, 94, 108 (before derby)

F. Pegasus.......103, 106, 111 (not much of a jump, pretty steady)

War Emblem......85, 98, 112 (14 point jump but Baffert picked him up like 2 weeks before derby & had him cranked & wanted to see if he was a derby horse, understandably, so I excuse the 14 point jump, although this horse showed much potential before Baffert)

[cj]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I can only go off of beyer figs with the following:

Charismatic.....94, 95, 94, 108 (before derby)

F. Pegasus.......103, 106, 111 (not much of a jump, pretty steady)

War Emblem......85, 98, 112 (14 point jump but Baffert picked him up like 2 weeks before derby & had him cranked & wanted to see if he was a derby horse, understandably, so I excuse the 14 point jump, although this horse showed much potential before Baffert)

Sounds right on the first two, but I disagreed strongly with that 98 in WE's allowance race. Way back in the day I posted here how I liked him in the Illinios Derby because of that, and he beat Repent easily.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Sounds right on the first two, but I disagreed strongly with that 98 in WE's allowance race. Way back in the day I posted here how I liked him in the Illinios Derby because of that, and he beat Repent easily.

Yes.

His prior race was one of those disputed figures that after the fact was almost certainly very fast also.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by cj

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

Interesting list. We may be able to whittle it down a bit. It looks like there's several Euros on here: Master of Hounds, Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle. And I believe Regal Ransom came from Dubai. We also have a couple horses who moved up on Poly: Dullahan and Went the Day Well. Most of those horses did not figure to run particularly well, although Dullahan did finish 3rd.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by cj

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

Do you think this is due to the dreaded "bounce", the added distance, the pace or troubled trip? In a 20 horse field stuff happens.

Of those with the big top prior to the Derby, how many went on to redeem themselves in subsequent efforts.

If there are five horses in the derby with big tops in their prior race, then no matter what at least four will fail to some degree.

In the Derby, when Ability meets Mr. Lucky, Ability goes 8 wide while Mr. Lucky splits horses on the way to victory. That's the thrill and excitement that surrounds the Derby.

Ferdinand, in post number one, was squeezed at the start back to last. Shoe patiently and uneventfully moved him into contention but behind a wall of horses nearing the top of the stretch. While thousands screamed "Get Him Thru" the Red Sea parted and Ferdinand went on to victory for the Shoe.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Interesting list. We may be able to whittle it down a bit. It looks like there's several Euros on here: Master of Hounds, Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle. And I believe Regal Ransom came from Dubai. We also have a couple horses who moved up on Poly: Dullahan and Went the Day Well. Most of those horses did not figure to run particularly well, although Dullahan did finish 3rd.

Pretty sure several of those took a lot of money too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

Do you think this is due to the dreaded "bounce", the added distance, the pace or troubled trip? In a 20 horse field stuff happens.

Of those with the big top prior to the Derby, how many went on to redeem themselves in subsequent efforts.

If there are five horses in the derby with big tops in their prior race, then no matter what at least four will fail to some degree.

In the Derby, when Ability meets Mr. Lucky, Ability goes 8 wide while Mr. Lucky splits horses on the way to victory. That's the thrill and excitement that surrounds the Derby.

Ferdinand, in post number one, was squeezed at the start back to last. Shoe patiently and uneventfully moved him into contention but behind a wall of horses nearing the top of the stretch. While thousands screamed "Get Him Thru" the Red Sea parted and Ferdinand went on to victory for the Shoe.

I'm not a big bounce guy unless it involves horses that ran hard off a long layoff and come back pretty quick. I'm sure there are some bad trips involved, like Ice Box. But I've just seen it too many times where they don't run well, not just don't win, to jump on those kind. I suspect many of them are just horses that won on the front and/or against weak competition. Horses generally run fastest when they get easy trips. There aren't many easy trips in the Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

I definitely don't see any freakish horses like War Emblem in this years derby. That derby it was a 1-2 wire to wire exacta.I remember all the hype of how much speed & front runners there was gonna be & no one wanted to burn themselves out, so they let War wire the field with slow fractions, a very boring derby!