2014 Kentuck Derby Trends & Angles

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Tapiture
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Candy Boy
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Medal Count
Commanding Curve

Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve
Harry’s Holiday
Vinceremos

Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Vinceremos

The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos


Who won?

Samraat 5
Intense Holiday 5
Medal Count 5
Wicked Strong 5
Candy Boy 5
California Chrome 4
We Miss Artie 4
Hoppertunity 4
Tapiture 4
Cairo Prince 4
Dance With Fate 3
WildCat Red 3
Vicar’s In Trouble 3
Chitu 3
Danza 3
Ring Weekend 3
*Commanding Curve 3
Uncle Sigh 3
*Vinceremos 3
Ride On Curlin 2
General A Rod 2
*Harry’s Holiday 1

I've been looking at Medal Count for the past week.......I told my cousin & a few friends he will be in my Exactas & they laughed.

Bgbooth, that guy you mentioned that came up with this elimination process......does he only play the horses with 5 points or do the horses with 4 points get any play?

[BlueChip@DRF]

What did last year's list look like?

[SecretAgentMan]

Never mind, you said a short list of 5 horses, hmm.....he's leaving Chrome out of the win! I can't agree with him until I see the post positions.......

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I've been looking at Medal Count for the past week.......I told my cousin & a few friends he will be in my Exactas & they laughed.

Bgbooth, that guy you mentioned that came up with this elimination process......does he only play the horses with 5 points or do the horses with 4 points get any play?

He says that historically the winner has had either 4 or 5 points. So I think he would play some of the 4 pointers as well.

[SecretAgentMan]

Not much of a trend but the past 3 derby winners won their last prep race before the derby.. ......

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

He says that historically the winner has had either 4 or 5 points. So I think he would play some of the 4 pointers as well.

Ahhh.....that's great! I just can't keep Chrome off my tickets.

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

What did last year's list look like?

According to his work (I didn't double check any of these)

2013
5 - Orb
5 - Black Onyx
4 - REvolutionary
4 - GoldenCents
4 - LInes of Battle
4 - Charming Kitten


2012
5 = Daddy Nose Best
4 = Union Rags, Alpha, GEmologist, El Padrino, Ill have another, Take Charge Indy

2011
5 - Twice the Appeal, Comma to the Top, Animal Kingdom,
4 - Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man,

[Will Power]

At first glance this is pretty good.

[horses4courses]

Horses who win their final prep in a "romp", have a hard time winning the KY Derby.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...ld_Happen_123#

[SecretAgentMan]

Past 5 derby winners & their last 2 race Bayer figures prior to the derby, 2nd number is race before derby for each horse:


2009......MTB....81.....80

2010.....Super Saver......93.......98

2011......AK.......83......94

2012.....IHA......96......95

2013.....Orb.....97.....97

[SecretAgentMan]

Last time the Bluegrass winner won the Kentucky derby was 1991 with Strike the Gold.......that's a 23 year trend.......

[Delta Cone]

Maybe this chart will prove interesting to some. It includes the Beyer speed figures of the Kentucky Derby winners since 1993.

The numbers to the right of the Derby winning figure are in chronological order (i.e., column 1 is last race before the Derby, column 2 is two races before the Derby, etc.)

I've also included a column that shows how the Derby winning figure related to the horse's previous top figure. For example, Sea Hero won the Derby with a 105. His previous top figure was a 99, so he improved 6 points. Smarty Jones is -5 because his Derby winning figure of 107 was actually 5 points lower than his earlier top figure of 112.

[PoloUK6108]

When's the last time the favorite won back-to-back years?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

When's the last time the favorite won back-to-back years?

Would have been 3 straight years with Barboro in 2006, the ML favorite but someone bet another horse for big money so last time back to back was 2007-2008

[Will Power]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.

I have to ask...

Isn't 82% of 10 = to 8.2. Can a horse be partially a Kentucky bred?