2014 Kentuck Derby Trends & Angles

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Blue Chip @drf: I don't know what criteria you are using but if you were to use War Admiral or Mahmoud in the X passing position you should have gotten the following:

2012--I'll Have Another traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Courtly Dee on the dam side. Click on Courtly Dee and you will see she traces back to War Admiral.

2011--Animal Kingdom traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Navajo Princess on his dam side.

2009-- Mine That Brid traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Classy Quillo on his dam side.

2007--Street Sense traces to Mahmoud in the LH-X position by way of His Majesty who is his second damsire.

This year the following horses all have LH-X stallions in their pedigree if you refer to War Admiral and Mahmoud in the X passing positions:

Ride On Curlin, Hoppertunity, California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Ring Weekend, Medal Count, Cairo Prince, Uncle Sigh, Harrys Holiday, Commanding Curve and Vinceremos to name a few.

If you need any help on this angle let me know. I wrote an article for American Turf Magazine a few years ago on this very factor for the KY Derby.

Is California Chrome a definitive passing of LHX?

[sbcaris]

BlueChip@DRF:

You asked, "Is California Chrome a definitive passing of LH-X"?

What exactly do you mean by that statement?

California Chrome's broodmare sire is Not For Love, a maternal grandson of Northern Dancer who definitely transmits part of Northern Dancer's X chromosome to his daughter, Love the Chase, who is the dam of California Chrome. So, Chrome has a part of Northern Dancers X which makes it part of Mahmoud's X.

California Chrome has Dance Number on his dam side in the X passing position. Dance Number, the dam of Not For Love, is a grand-daughter of Buckpasser who is a maternal grandson of War Admiral. So Chrome gets part of War Admiral's X chromosome from his dam, Love the Chase who got part of that X from her sire, Not For Love.

If you are asking, does a horse get the whole X from a distant ancestor? The answer is NO, only part of that X. In fact all descendants of a stallion or mare only get a portion of their X chromosome because of crossing over phenomenon.

In the May issue of American Turf Monthly this year, my article on Buckpassers X chromosome appears on page 1 of the magazine. In this article I go into the details of why Buckpasser in the X is such a valuable angle in the Ky Derby. Last years winner, Orb, was the only runner in the Derby field who qualified on my Buckpasser in the X angle.

[Bennie]

Some people believe in these "elimination" factors and some do not. I, myself use them every year to some degree. The key is to remember that these are "winning" elimination factors only and should not deter you from using horses who would be "eliminated" underneath in your wagers. Because the exactas and trifectas usually pay pretty good on Derby day it may be wise to play the horses you like as you would normally but think about using them in some exotic wagers with horses who cleared all the "elimination" factors as well.

[SecretAgentMan]

The following is another angle to look for......

Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver all had either 7 or 8 I Chefs with others in some of those fields having much higher numbers.This list is from a member in another forum, its the "I" chefs......the winning derby horses usually have a number of 7 or higher........

California Chrome *8
Vicar's In Trouble *3
Dance With Fate *2
Wicked Strong *6
Samraat *3
Danza *4
Constitution *5 (scratched)
Hoppertunity *7
Intense Holiday *5
Wildcat Red *8
We Miss Artie *8
Ride On Curlin *6
Chitu *6
Tapiture *6
Midnight Hawk *4
Ring Weekend *7
General A Rod *9
Medal Count *6
Candy Boy *4
Cairo Prince *8 (scratched)
Uncle Sigh *6
----------------------------------------

[SecretAgentMan]

Here's last year's entrants with at least 7:

Orb *11 *(1st)
Golden Soul *8 *(2nd)
Revolutionary *8 *(3rd)
Charming Kitten *8 *(9th)
Will Take Charge *7 *(8th)
Palace Malice *7 *(12th)
Black Onyx *7 *(SCR)

Normandy Invasion (4th) had 6

[SecretAgentMan]

Only 1 horse has won the derby since 1999 while racing more than 7 races before entering the derby.......it was Mine that Bird in 2009.Horses are racing lightly since 2000........Chrome has 10 races under his belt & trying to buck that trend & become the 2nd horse since 1999.

[depalma113]

24 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with at least two triple digit Beyers in their last three races, 13 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

24 starters: 3 wins - 3 seconds - 4 thirds - 3 fourths.

7 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two Beyers at 105 or above in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

7 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 1 third - 1 fourth.

5 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 4 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

5 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by depalma113

24 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with at least two triple digit Beyers in their last three races, 13 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

24 starters: 3 wins - 3 seconds - 4 thirds - 3 fourths.

7 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two Beyers at 105 or above in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

7 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 1 third - 1 fourth.

5 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 4 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

5 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

So I guess that means we can save money on our bets by keying CC in all spots.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

So I guess that means we can save money on our bets by keying CC in all spots.

Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.

Chrome is in some good company.......

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.

Still, it might be a 2006 scenario.
An across-the-board bet could probably look like this example: $30 W/P and then $1 Trifecta 123456/123456/CC as a show bet.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Chrome is in some good company.......

Seems to be the only one.

[fmolf]

Whatever happened to "can the horse plain run fast, and does he have enough tactical speed to secure position for the stretch run?"

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by fmolf

Whatever happened to "can the horse plain run fast, and does he have enough tactical speed to secure position for the stretch run?"

Have you watched any of Chromes past 3 races? He's the fastest horse going into the derby........if you want to see tactical speed, watch the Santa Anita derby where he breaks bad, gets pinched back & within a blink of the eye, he's right up behind the pace setter.

They don't give out 108 & 107 beyers to slow running horses.

[bgbootha]

Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Tapiture
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Candy Boy
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Medal Count
Commanding Curve

Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve
Harry’s Holiday
Vinceremos

Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Vinceremos

The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos


Who won?

Samraat 5
Intense Holiday 5
Medal Count 5
Wicked Strong 5
Candy Boy 5
California Chrome 4
We Miss Artie 4
Hoppertunity 4
Tapiture 4
Cairo Prince 4
Dance With Fate 3
WildCat Red 3
Vicar’s In Trouble 3
Chitu 3
Danza 3
Ring Weekend 3
*Commanding Curve 3
Uncle Sigh 3
*Vinceremos 3
Ride On Curlin 2
General A Rod 2
*Harry’s Holiday 1