2014 Kentuck Derby Trends & Angles

[Curlin]

Any stats on horses who have never left their home circuit, track, or state?

[bgbootha]

I know its pointless in the long run,but its fun! And can be telling a little. But here is a blog I just wrote for our site. Thought I would share.

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Every year millions of people try to handicap one of the toughest races of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The reason this race is so tough is very simple. There are 20 horses running in the race. That’s more than any other horse race in the United States throughout the rest of the year. In order to have a chance at figuring out how to cash a ticket on Derby day, you have to start by eliminating horses that aren’t going to make it. Derby journalist Jon White came up with his strike system a few years back and this list is a similar system based on some of his research. You can find even more data like this in our FREE Derby packet as well.


Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)


Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
This eliminates:
Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)
Vinceremos (broke maiden on Jan. 4th)


46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
This eliminates:


Wicked Strong
We Miss Artie
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Danza
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
This eliminates:
Ride On Curlin
General A Rod
Uncle Sigh
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
This eliminates:
Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
Danza (4 starts)
Hoppertunity (5 starts)
Chitu (4 starts)
Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
Cairo Prince (5 starts)
Uncle Sigh (5 starts)
Vinceremos (5 starts)


Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
This eliminates:
Ring Weekend

Now if you are keeping score….How many negative points did each horse get?
California Chrome 0
Intense Holiday 0
Medal Count 0
Samraat 0
Dance With Fate 0
WildCat Red 0
Wicked Strong -1
We Miss Artie -1
Midnight Hawk -1
Vicar’s In Trouble -1
Chitu -1
Ride On Curlin -1
General A Rod -1
Candy Boy -2
Hoppertunity -2
Tapiture -2
Danza -2
Ring Weekend -2
*Commanding Curve -2
Cairo Prince -3
Uncle Sigh -3
*Harry’s Holiday -3
*Vinceremos -4

So what does this mean?
In order to handicap a race with 20 horses we have to start by tossing a number of them to the wayside. Taking a closer look at thsi list I think its safe to say that a number of these horses simply don’t have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t pull a Golden Soul and come from no where to finish second or third. But can we safely toss a few of these from the winners circle?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I know its pointless in the long run,but its fun! And can be telling a little. But here is a blog I just wrote for our site. Thought I would share.

---------------
Every year millions of people try to handicap one of the toughest races of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The reason this race is so tough is very simple. There are 20 horses running in the race. That’s more than any other horse race in the United States throughout the rest of the year. In order to have a chance at figuring out how to cash a ticket on Derby day, you have to start by eliminating horses that aren’t going to make it. Derby journalist Jon White came up with his strike system a few years back and this list is a similar system based on some of his research. You can find even more data like this in our FREE Derby packet as well.


Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)


Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
This eliminates:
Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)
Vinceremos (broke maiden on Jan. 4th)


46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
This eliminates:


Wicked Strong
We Miss Artie
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Danza
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
This eliminates:
Ride On Curlin
General A Rod
Uncle Sigh
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
This eliminates:
Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
Danza (4 starts)
Hoppertunity (5 starts)
Chitu (4 starts)
Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
Cairo Prince (5 starts)
Uncle Sigh (5 starts)
Vinceremos (5 starts)


Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
This eliminates:
Ring Weekend

Now if you are keeping score….How many negative points did each horse get?
California Chrome 0
Intense Holiday 0
Medal Count 0
Samraat 0
Dance With Fate 0
WildCat Red 0
Wicked Strong -1
We Miss Artie -1
Midnight Hawk -1
Vicar’s In Trouble -1
Chitu -1
Ride On Curlin -1
General A Rod -1
Candy Boy -2
Hoppertunity -2
Tapiture -2
Danza -2
Ring Weekend -2
*Commanding Curve -2
Cairo Prince -3
Uncle Sigh -3
*Harry’s Holiday -3
*Vinceremos -4

So what does this mean?
In order to handicap a race with 20 horses we have to start by tossing a number of them to the wayside. Taking a closer look at thsi list I think its safe to say that a number of these horses simply don’t have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t pull a Golden Soul and come from no where to finish second or third. But can we safely toss a few of these from the winners circle?

Good stuff man.....thanks for the info!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)

Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

Agreed, I have removed Cairo and Tapiture from that list on our site. Thanks. Not sure how i missed that.

I like the idea of looking at the LHX as well. I am working on some of the positive angles, and I would like to include this info into it as well. Good thoughts!

Can you go deeper into the dosage points?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Agreed, I have removed Cairo and Tapiture from that list on our site. Thanks. Not sure how i missed that.

I like the idea of looking at the LHX as well. I am working on some of the positive angles, and I would like to include this info into it as well. Good thoughts!

Can you go deeper into the dosage points?

I'm not sure how it works, I just looked them up at www.pedigreequery.com. and noticed the total number of dosage points for the top 3 finishers last year. Doesn't work all the time. Also, using that same site, I'll Have Another is a 'throwback' in breeding with a lot of S and P chefs occurring within 5 generations. S and P chef is the stamina side of breeding. The only contender in this field with an S or P on BOTH sides is…..





















Wait for it……..






















Wait for it………

















Ring Weekend

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

[SecretAgentMan]

Jon White's strike system...... 35 of past 41 derby winners had 0 or 1 strike. 5 of the horses had 2 strikes & only 1 horse had more than 2 strikes past 41 years, Mine That Bird had 4 strikes.

This years strikes:

Cali Chrome.......0
Samraat.........0
Intense Holiday........0
Wild Cat Red.. .......0
Medal Count..........0
Wicked Strong........1
Dance Fate.......1
Hoppertunity........1
Ring Weekend........1
Candy Boy........1
Cairo Prince.......1
Vinceremos........2
General Rod.........2
Tapiture..........2
Chitu........2
Ride Curlin.......2
We Miss Art.......2
Danza........2
Vicars.........2
Uncle Sigh.........3


I got this information off of another forum.........

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

I've been waiting for someone to uncover this guy.
Ring Weekend could very well be good on Derby Day.
Just as Wicked Strong got the sweetest trip in any 3yo prep race this year ( It was a perfect harness trip.....I thought Tim Tetrick was riding Wicked Strong),Ring Weekend had a miserable trip in the Calder Derby.
From the second the gate opened RW was taking a very uncomfortable trip @ CRC.
He never had a chance to settle.
To RW credit he was able to get on even terms with the winner early in the stretch.....
But jockey Garcia had to stand up on RW to avoid a nasty hit, and RW race was over.
The head on replay of this race paints a pretty good picture.

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.

Hmm.....someone has the info out there, hopefully they will share it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.

I just saw you had posted the strike system above & I went ahead & posted it as well before seeing you doing it, lol.......gotta get new info.

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I just saw you had posted the strike system above & I went ahead & posted it as well before seeing you doing it, lol.......gotta get new info.

all good brother....rather see good info twice than not at all!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

2013 Orb
2010 Super Saver
2008 Big Brown (x2: two lines he could have inherited LHX)
2004 Smarty Jones
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus
1999 Charismatic (x2)
1998 Real Quiet (x4)
1997 Silver Charm (x2)
1996 Grindstone
1995 Thunder Gulch
1994 Go For Gin (x3)
1993 Sea Hero (x2)
1990 Unbridled (x4)
1988 Winning Colors
1987 Alysheba (x5)
1984 Swale
1981 Pleasant Colony (x2)
1980 Genuine Risk
1979 Spectacular Bid
1978 Affirmed (x4) *TC*
1977 Seattle Slew (x5) *TC*
1975 Foolish Pleasure (x4)
1974 Cannonade (x5)
1973 Secretariat (x4) *TC* direct descendant (2nd gen) from Princequillo line



Non-LHX winners
2012 I'll Have Another - his lineage was a throwback to old school breeding
2011 Animal Kingdom - stamina from his broodmare sire side (European champion bloodlines)
2009 Mine That Bird - most i-Chefs
2007 Street Sense - inferior stock that year?
2006 Barbaro - superior but fragile
2005 Giacomo - benefactor of a blazing pace
2003 Funny Cide - stamina galore [multiple S and P-chefs within 5 generations] on both sides of lineage
2002 War Emblem - benefactor of being left alone on the lead, the other speed in the race swallowed up by the volume of the field at the start.
2001 Monarchos - stamina [S-Chef] on both sides
1992 Lil E Tee - no crossbreeding within 5 generations
1991 Strike The Gold - stamina [S-Chef] on both sides
1989 Sunday Silence
1986 Ferdinand
1985 Spend A Buck
1983 Sunny's Halo
1982 Gato Del Sol
1976 Bold Forbes

[sbcaris]

Blue Chip @drf: I don't know what criteria you are using but if you were to use War Admiral or Mahmoud in the X passing position you should have gotten the following:

2012--I'll Have Another traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Courtly Dee on the dam side. Click on Courtly Dee and you will see she traces back to War Admiral.

2011--Animal Kingdom traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Navajo Princess on his dam side.

2009-- Mine That Brid traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Classy Quillo on his dam side.

2007--Street Sense traces to Mahmoud in the LH-X position by way of His Majesty who is his second damsire.

This year the following horses all have LH-X stallions in their pedigree if you refer to War Admiral and Mahmoud in the X passing positions:

Ride On Curlin, Hoppertunity, California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Ring Weekend, Medal Count, Cairo Prince, Uncle Sigh, Harrys Holiday, Commanding Curve and Vinceremos to name a few.

If you need any help on this angle let me know. I wrote an article for American Turf Magazine a few years ago on this very factor for the KY Derby.