Trip Handicapping

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

It really clears things up, doesn't it? The single greatest handicapping advancement I've ever made was when I started watching the last race of each horse before I opened the form. My results took a very noticeable positive move forward.

I'll watch a race replay, and then look at the running line, and quite often I see two entirely different stories. Sometimes the replay looks like a good run, but the running line on it's own looks so-so, and sometimes the replay looks so-so, and the running line looks very good. That has been the best advantage of it, right there. Running lines that previously would have led me to a horse, or made me afraid of it when I was backing another horse, all the sudden don't look so great, and I am able to bet with more confidence.

The next step for you will be recognizing a good run instinctively. All Place finishes aren't the same, even when the running lines look very similar.

What tracks do you play cutchemist42?

ASD cause its local
Hst for DDs
WO- I like to have some cheap fun with the .20 P3s
Bel/Aqu

But yeah, just today I hit a $40 at WO and on Wednesday hit a $22.40, and they were horses I never would have considered based on the running lines/pace numbers/comments.

I mean, I had heard of trip handicapping, just thought the advantage gained would never be worth the time, but wow, so far I like it. (Might be a short sample size of the method so far though, so I'll try to remain neutral about it)

I have been doing what you do too, watch replay first then read the line. The only thing I look at is the running style of the horse before the replay.

[ultracapper]

Good hits. You'll sneak 3 or 4 of those in a month. Horses you never would have considered.

[cutchemist42]

Anyone ever watch the Trip Handicapping DVD by Dan Illman?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I watch the replay of the last race for each horse in the race I'm handicapping before I open the form. Then more replays after looking through the form. I hardly even look at the running lines in the form. I see the race on the track via replays. The past performance running lines tell you WHAT a horse did. The replays tell you HOW a horse did.

Races are run on the track, not on paper. There's lots of information in the form that I find very important and wouldn't bet without reviewing it first. The running lines aren't info I require. I've spent many years practicing blocking that info out so as not to allow it to influence my process, because it will if I allow it to. We've all been "raised" on DRF pps, and the running lines are one of the first things that were pointed out to us, and emphasized over and over.

If you really think about it...the PP line doesn't tell you how a horse did, it tells you how all the horses around him did. This is why video work is vital.