Trip Handicapping

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by traynor

Congratulations on your success. Cases like yours are why I prefaced "trip handicapper" with "serious." I would define the latter as being a full-time professional, earning the total (or at the very least the lion's share) of his or her income from wagering. That is a totally different scenario (and totally different mindset) than breaking even, making a few bucks from a pleasant, recreational activity, or making a modest profit from an activity at which most participants lose--including those with 20 or more years of practice.

I did not say one could not do well by only watching replays. The question is not how well you do, but how much better you (might be able to) do if you added watching live races to your activities. It sounds like you have a ton of skills at critically observing races. I am especially impressed by the idea that you watch races before reading PP's (that most use to frame their "observations" to match their preconceptions).

Seattle is a pleasant enough place to live, but I cannot imagine why anyone with your apparent skills and capabilities would live there full-time, in preference to spending (at least part of) the year on a major circuit. Australia and the Sha Tin/Happy Valley circuits are like candy stores for trip handicappers.

1st 2 paragraphs....Fair enough. Got it.

3rd paragraph....Been in Seattle all my life. Ain't going anywhere. It was like pulling teeth to get my wife, bro-in-law and sis-in-law to agree to spend one day at Del Mar, never mind the three that I secured. My wife isn't going to the outback to watch horse races, that I can guarantee you.

[Tom]

Moving half way around the world and limiting yourself to one race track doesn't interest you?

[Robert Fischer]

There is no requirement that you go to any specific geographic location, and there is no requirement that you handicap the horse beyond the race itself.

[Tom]

Although TLG made a virtual trip halfway around the world and came up with a nice pick yesterday.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

1st 2 paragraphs....Fair enough. Got it.

3rd paragraph....Been in Seattle all my life. Ain't going anywhere. It was like pulling teeth to get my wife, bro-in-law and sis-in-law to agree to spend one day at Del Mar, never mind the three that I secured. My wife isn't going to the outback to watch horse races, that I can guarantee you.

Betting on horse races is a lot like hunting. I do much better at both by being flexible about location. I seek opportunities, rather than trying to make do with whatever is available at one specific location.

I lived in Arizona, hardcore desert dweller. When AZ made online betting illegal, I left. I never considered it a bad thing to do, nor have I ever regretted it.

[Tom]

If you have to be at the track to see the trips in person, why would you bet betting on line - why not bet at the track where you have to be?

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Tom

If you have to be at the track to see the trips in person, why would you bet betting on line - why not bet at the track where you have to be?

I have two fundamentally different wagering strategies (explained at length previously). One is based on statistical models, and that involves many (smaller) wagers spread over many tracks. Mechanical, no-brainer, and much of that is online. The second involves much larger (but fewer) wagers, for which the statistical models are augmented with onsite observation, trip notes, and so on. I do much better not second-guessing myself for the smaller (and much more numerous) bets, and by not over-relying on computer number crunching for the larger bets.

In addition, because I bet both harness and thoroughbreds fairly seriously, there are not many places (in the US) at which the mix of bets is available. My current location has a thoroughbred track (that won't take harness) and a harness track (that won't take thoroughbred). I definitely need to relocate, and the sooner the better.

Finally, full-time onsite study is a lot of work. I can only do it well for fairly brief periods, usually four months or so max. Then I have to take an extended break.

[cutchemist42]

So does anyone here use trip handicapping on a regular basis? You're just using it to understand the speed number? How many race replays should one watch?

[dannyhill]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

So does anyone here use trip handicapping on a regular basis? You're just using it to understand the speed number? How many race replays should one watch?

About 3 or 4 hours nightly for the 3 tracks i have to cover.
IMO the most under used and misused facet of handicapping.

[EMD4ME]

I watch every single replay of every horse in the race at the two tracks that I wager on. If I miss one replay, I feel naked.

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

So does anyone here use trip handicapping on a regular basis? You're just using it to understand the speed number? How many race replays should one watch?

I find that Trip Handicapping is more useful in harness handicapping than in thoroughbreds..........in harness with a sulky attached behind a horse....you can get into more troubles in one race than a whole thoroughbred card full of 12 races.

This is one of the main reason why I prefer to bet harness over thoroughbreds.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

So does anyone here use trip handicapping on a regular basis? You're just using it to understand the speed number? How many race replays should one watch?

Yes. It is a part of the information that I use.

No, I'm not using it to understand the speed number, but I suppose that it could described that way depending on the philosophy of the handicapper.

I watch replays for most of the horses I've decided to wager on. I also have watch-list horses whose data indicated a possible trip, and then when they are entered, I will actually watch the replay. Some types of plays require that I watch 10 seconds of video, others require that I watch the full race and head-on angles a few times.

[ultracapper]

I watch the replay of the last race for each horse in the race I'm handicapping before I open the form. Then more replays after looking through the form. I hardly even look at the running lines in the form. I see the race on the track via replays. The past performance running lines tell you WHAT a horse did. The replays tell you HOW a horse did.

Races are run on the track, not on paper. There's lots of information in the form that I find very important and wouldn't bet without reviewing it first. The running lines aren't info I require. I've spent many years practicing blocking that info out so as not to allow it to influence my process, because it will if I allow it to. We've all been "raised" on DRF pps, and the running lines are one of the first things that were pointed out to us, and emphasized over and over.

[cutchemist42]

Ever since my last post, I have now taken to watching the last race of each horse, and I am loving the results so far. I feel like I'm slowing down the handicapping, and not simply jumping into the next race. I love it!

[ultracapper]

It really clears things up, doesn't it? The single greatest handicapping advancement I've ever made was when I started watching the last race of each horse before I opened the form. My results took a very noticeable positive move forward.

I'll watch a race replay, and then look at the running line, and quite often I see two entirely different stories. Sometimes the replay looks like a good run, but the running line on it's own looks so-so, and sometimes the replay looks so-so, and the running line looks very good. That has been the best advantage of it, right there. Running lines that previously would have led me to a horse, or made me afraid of it when I was backing another horse, all the sudden don't look so great, and I am able to bet with more confidence.

The next step for you will be recognizing a good run instinctively. All Place finishes aren't the same, even when the running lines look very similar.

What tracks do you play cutchemist42?